Shawn Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 Well the 0c 850 is holding together (small and weak) through GA. Not quite sure if it would even be snow.. not really feeling it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 Much colder, big sleet storm for triad, even RDU is sleet/frzn. Well then. The trend continued! What are you looking at (soundings, 2m temps, etc..) and how much colder are we talking? Is the high holding on longer and stronger? I'm switching to my phone so my model analysis attempts are done for the night, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 I don't see many changes on the 0z nam when compared to the 18z with the surface map or h5. Looks maybe slightly warmer at 850. Haven't looked at the 2m temps. Folks that can read the maps better than me, please let us know what you see. I'm through hr 36 on instantweathermaps. Much colder, big sleet storm for triad, even RDU is sleet/frzn. Agree PB. Soundings for my area is like night and day. The warm nose is alot thinner and dewpoint depressions would suggest alot of evaporative cooling possible aloft. Looks like a total sleet fest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 Here is a sounding for Marietta about 24 hours from now. That looks like heavy wet snow. am I dreaming here? image.jpg You are not dreaming. That would be a snow sounding. Good trends on the 18z gfs. Hope it holds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 I don't see many changes on the 0z nam when compared to the 18z with the surface map or h5. Looks maybe slightly warmer at 850. Haven't looked at the 2m temps. Folks that can read the maps better than me, please let us know what you see. I'm through hr 36 on instantweathermaps. Looks like we get about 1" QPF as assorted wintry precip before changing over to rain. Wow, central NC is being crushed at hr 45. Heavy precip (1"+/hr rates if snow)! 850s verbatim fall to 0C-2C. Could that possibly be too warm and be wet snow??? Surface temperatures are in the mid-30s by then, though... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 Sub-freezing 850's showing up in western VA at hour 48. That's new. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillerA Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 Is there a sharp cut off on the precipitation? Or is everyone from rdu west getting rain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 Portions of S VA (And Surry County, NC!) verbatim are getting HEAVY wet snow at hr 48. Crushing those that change over. It means business. Areas from just north of CLT to GSO/INT and up into S VA are getting heavy precip with 850s below 2C, verbatim. Like I said, verbatim, areas are sub-freezing in S VA. You can see the ULL crash thicknesses down past 546 dam at the 1000-500 mb level. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 Sub-freezing 850's showing up in western VA at hour 48. That's new. Portions of S VA verbatim are getting HEAVY wet snow at hr 48. Crushing those that change over. It means business. Areas from just north of CLT to GSO/INT and up into S VA are getting heavy precip with 850s below 2C, verbatim. Like I said, verbatim, areas are sub-freezing in S VA. Yea but that sharp cutoff is freekin brutal for us its like we have a shield blocking our area while Boone and western nc get absolutely raked. Now that would be frustrating! Plenty of time I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacobr57 Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 Is there a sharp cut off on the precipitation? Or is everyone from rdu west getting rain? No, all of NC gets over an inch qpf. Edit: Except for extreme western NC which gets at least .5 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 Portions of S VA (And Surry County, NC!) verbatim are getting HEAVY wet snow at hr 48. Crushing those that change over. It means business. Areas from just north of CLT to GSO/INT and up into S VA are getting heavy precip with 850s below 2C, verbatim. Like I said, verbatim, areas are sub-freezing in S VA. Is there any way the models are off by 2 degrees at 850? It seems like the models don't usually bust by being too warm aloft. I know that surface temps often are too warm in a CAD setup. How about upper level temps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 The Hi-Res NAM has wintry precip reaching the Triad and N NC at 9 PM tomorrow evening. Is there any way the models are off by 2 degrees at 850? It seems like the models don't usually bust by being too warm aloft. I know that surface temps often are too warm in a CAD setup. How about upper level temps? Well, the 12 km NAM only has that it is 0-2C for a lot of us, so that could mean 850s are 0.1C or it could mean they're 1.9C. I really don't know. The Hi-Res NAM gives us ~1" QPF worth of ZR/IP. GSO is hit the worst as we're one of the last ones to change over to rain (the foothills change over earlier). Your area would be a little worse (or better?) off, but not by much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NGA WINTER Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 The Hi-Res NAM has wintry precip reaching the Triad and N NC at 9 PM tomorrow evening. How did ne ga do on the nam? Sounds like it's colder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 Buddy1987, on 05 Mar 2014 - 9:26 PM, said:Yea but that sharp cutoff is freekin brutal for us its like we have a shield blocking our area while Boone and western nc get absolutely raked. Now that would be frustrating! Plenty of time I guess. Simulated radar suggests Roanoke gets some of that action at hour 48. Looks like a nasty ice scenario for someone though -- We get several hours of light precip with very cold temps at the surface. If it's light freezing rain for hours rather than sleet, that accumulates much more efficient than a deluge at the same temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 NAM has CLT with 3.39" precip. wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSU2005 Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 Hey guys...how did RDU do on 0z NAM? Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 On my phone but that two contour closed low argues for CLT getting snow but this is going to be a wild one with everything on the table. Sent from my HTC One using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 How did ne ga do on the nam? Sounds like it's colder The Hi-Res NAM, taken verbatim, does not give any significant ice to anyone outside of the state of NC. It might have a warm bias for all I know. It's a big ice storm (maybe sleet, too?) in the GSO-INT area and to the north. Looks like the icing is confined to just north of CLT to the foothills and over to Raleigh for a few hours and the 32F line moves slowly in towards GSO until hr 42, when it changes over. The Hi-Res NAM has areas of central NC like Greensboro, Asheboro, Southern Pines, and northeast towards Roxboro +/- 0C at hr 45 with tons of precip. Wet snow? I don't have thickness maps for the Hi-Res NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 Hey guys...how did RDU do on 0z NAM? Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 SJ are you seeing any warm temps around 4-6C around the 900mb level and up on your soundings for GSO? I'm confused. It starts as sleet here than warms significantly. Sleet to cold rain here as temps warm too much for any wrap around precip after to fall as zr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 For some reason the CAD stays longer over GSO than anywhere on the NAM's, through 11am, probably 12 hours of ice per NAM's... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 Brad Panovich and Alan Huffman are tweeting about the ice potential. I'm sure someone can post it here (on phone). I'm starting to get a little worried with so much precip coming. NWS might go straight to a winter storm warning in the morning if the rest of the 0z runs continue to tick colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 Per the 12km NAM it's a lot of ice for RDU through 12z Friday morning (7am). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 GSO... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 SJ are you seeing any warm temps around 4-6C around the 900mb level and up on your soundings for GSO? I'm confused. It starts as sleet here than warms significantly. Sleet to cold rain here as temps warm too much for any wrap around precip after to fall as zr. I haven't looked at soundings yet. I'm just looking at surface temperatures at the moment. The deformation band really crushes GSO-INT on the Hi-Res NAM (as well as the 12 km NAM, though the band sets up a little further west) and to the north east and south. 850s read out as 0C, surface temperatures are in the mid-30s. Precipitation is enormous. I don't have thicknesses. I honestly wonder if that could be crushing wet snow if the models aren't taking into account enough dynamic cooling with enhanced lift, as RAH suggested in their afternoon AFD. That would be epic. Maybe I'm just wishcasting, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillerA Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 Check out @wxbrad's Tweet: https://twitter.com/wxbrad/status/441399326833516544 Check out @RaleighWx's Tweet: https://twitter.com/RaleighWx/status/441399358794506240 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 Brad Panovich and Alan Huffman are tweeting about the ice potential. I'm sure someone can post it here (on phone). I'm starting to get a little worried with so much precip coming. NWS might go straight to a winter storm warning in the morning if the rest of the 0z runs continue to tick colder. They will go to a WSW tonight if the GFS and RGEM come in like this. If the RGEM shows what it did 18z that will be something for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 They will go to a WSW tonight if the GFS and RGEM come in like this. If the RGEM shows what it did 18z that will be something for sure. What time will you get the rgem? I'm trying to fight off mr. Sandman! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 2.5-3" QPF showing up on 12km NAM, overdone for sure, but chop it in half and it's still a lot of precip, a lot of rain too... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 What time will you get the rgem? I'm trying to fight off mr. Sandman! 15 mins, but probably 30 mins to get the metograms to get specifics, to me that's the really the only other model that matters tonight, it's been rock solid this winter and it runs a little warm on 2m temps, at least in every previous event for MBY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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