burgertime Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Sadly for pretty much everyone in the SE this run of the Euro is 36 and rain. I just don't like our odds relying on a CAD setup this late in the season. I way more confident in an ULL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 the euro has not! It did on the last storm and that was it. You dont even look at the models. I can read. And all winter the GFS has been all over the place while the Euro has been consistent. You ccan't rely on the GFS at all with how eratic it has been. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Strong system... 993 mb LP in the Gulf south of Pensacola at hr 132. That's over 10 mb stronger than the same time at 00z. Too warm, of course. The ULL crashes 850s in central AL to 1C. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Sounds like doc had some issues? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Low tracks into SW GA by hr 144. Obviously, that doesn't work. Central AL is being hammered with heavy precipitation and 850s are nearly 0C, though. Interesting. Surface temperatures are in the 40s, verbatim, though. By hr 150, the LP is centered in central SC. LOL. The 12z Euro is a severe outlier with the surface low track at the moment. Maybe It's right... I don't know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 So basically it led on the only storm that has even mattered all winter.that was not the only storm this year. And it has shown multiple false alarms this year and the past few years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Hmmm sounds like doc could be struggling. Cad was better? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Hmmm sounds like doc could be struggling. Cad was better? There was barely any CAD. sfs 32 line barely makes it into NC at the onset before racing north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 that was not the only storm this year. And it has shown multiple false alarms this year and the past few years. While the GFS has been all over the place from run to run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 The LP moving east in south Canada is stronger on the euro and Ukie and it is pushing our HP out to sea. Imo this is causing the warmer solutions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Hmmm sounds like doc could be struggling. Cad was better? I think so... To progressive Too warm period Even though its showing retreating HP there should be some kind of hybrid damming setup. Not to mention even though its not fully closed off at the h5 there should be sub 32 temps at 850 on the North side of the precip shield wrapping around the coma head. The track is nearly perfect for a snowstorm... GOM across N FL,Lower Ga off the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 The 12z GEFS mean looks solid. You can see the CAD buckling the isobars and the HP hangs in for awhile. The HP slides offshore around hr 138, but by that time the LP is offshore of Wilmington. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Well, it's only 1 run, but I don't like how 2m temps just warm up for now reason in cad areas. Gfs does it too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Well thats disappointing but not unexpected. Its just not our time of year really. Is there no sign of baffling island blocking/ridging? Perhaps thats the problem. Earlier runs had that as a nice pronounced feature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Not really seeing the need for a lot of throwing in the towel or overexuberance at this point for a D5 storm in early March. We were always going to be presented with a lot of different looks. Many, many options are still on the table. The odds favor rain outside of the mountains/foothills, but there's still lots that can change favorably...or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 The Euro Ensembles do not really support the operational. The mean track appears to be offshore. HP slides OTS at hr 132 while the surface low just offshore SE of Panama City, FL. By hr 144 the low is centered offshore of Charleston, SC. At hr 156, the low is offshore of Cape Hatteras. 850s appear colder than last night's ensemble mean. The CAD signature is more evident. Verbatim, there's not much snow seen except for maybe the northern areas at the start (and that depends on how fast precip is moving, which is hard to tell), but using an ensemble mean to pinpoint the snow line is kind of iffy, anyways. EDIT: Actually, the general setup is pretty similar to last night's ensembles. 850s are colder, though. Nevertheless, the Euro ensembles aren't buying the inland track of the operational yet. The control run is also further east than the operational, though not as far east as the ensemble mean. It basically runs right up the coast and into the Pamlico Sound, rather than through SW GA and central SC like the Euro operational. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 The Euro Ensembles do not really support the operational. The mean track appears to be offshore. HP slides OTS at hr 132 while the surface low just offshore SE of Panama City, FL. By hr 144 the low is centered offshore of Charleston, SC. At hr 156, the low is offshore of Cape Hatteras. 850s appear colder than last night's ensemble mean. The CAD signature is more evident. Verbatim, there's not much snow seen except for maybe the northern areas at the start (and that depends on how fast precip is moving, which is hard to tell), but using an ensemble mean to pinpoint the snow line is kind of iffy, anyways. I agreed and we are still outside 5+ days, look at how much this 3/3 event has changed since 5 days ago, it was a LGA/BOS jackpot, now it's turning into DC south jackpot, just nuts. Just compare how much things change... ---12z GFS run from 3 days ago --- ---12z run from today --- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 GGEM ENS 850's suck but CAD isn't bad... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mark Dee Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Here is ECMWF 12z (today) prog of winds at 5,000 ft for Thu/Fri with the GoMex Low. Thursday approx 45 kts near New Orleans; Friday 60-65 kts over Florida and Carolinas. SPC monitoring for psbl severe wx outbreak for Florida March 6th. While this is not1993 Storm of Century of course, its implications for the Southeast may be similar. Noted comments re cold air damming; this event would be separate from influx of northern cold stream flow aloft as split flow forecast to dominate days 4-10. Will be difficult south of Charlottedown east slopes of mountains for below 32F icing / CAD event over GA or SC.See severe TS Florida & Carolinas, intense winter precip event VA and north....IMHO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Here is ECMWF 12z (today) prog of winds at 5,000 ft for Thu/Fri with the GoMex Low. Thursday approx 45 kts near New Orleans; Friday 60-65 kts over Florida and Carolinas. SPC monitoring for psbl severe wx outbreak for Florida March 6th. While this is not 1993 Storm of Century of course, its implications for the Southeast may be similar. The front has already passed most of FL on the 144 hr frame and I'm pretty sure no one is monitoring for a "possible outbreak" at this time, especially considering model differences. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Reminds me of the last snow we had with the ensembles being further east with the track and looking better than the op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mark Dee Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 The front has already passed most of FL on the 144 hr frame and I'm pretty sure no one is monitoring for a "possible outbreak" at this time, especially considering model differences. good that you are pretty sure ~ appreciate the comment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mark Dee Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 The front has already passed most of FL on the 144 hr frame and I'm pretty sure no one is monitoring for a "possible outbreak" at this time, especially considering model differences. from NWS Tallahassee FL The main concern in the extended period comes on Thursday as a potent shortwave carves through the northern Gulf, resulting in rather significant Gulf cyclogenesis. This forecast will favor the 12z ECMWF as it has held a much steadier forecast over the past couple of days, and is also supported by the CMC. The surface low- track, as well as the low and deep layer wind profiles are quite concerning with respected to severe convection. Both the ECMWF and the CMC, depict a 50+ KT LLJ nosing right up Apalachee Bay. Further, a strong mid-level jet max raises deep layer shear values over 60 knots... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 The 500mb wave in the southeast on the Euro Ensemble looks really, really good...it's what you would want to see in this area for a good winter storm in terms of strength / track. The problem is a lack of deep, cold air. No north atlantic blocking, so the window for cold is short. I do think the potential is there for the early portion of the storm to have a wintry mix in this area due to the good cold air damming look, which is typically as cold or colder than the models show, as others have commented. I'm not really in the camp of thinking that you can't have icing in this area in early March. If the setup is there with a good, cold air source, I don't see why it can't happen, and I suspect it's happened in the past...maybe GaWx has some cases. The sfc low on the Euro Ens did trend west this run...its track being just barely off the SE coast...whereas it has been steadfast at tracking it across Daytona Beach, then off the SE coast (more off the coast than this run). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 from NWS Tallahassee FL Nowhere there do I see "possible outbreak". Also interesting that you decided to cherry-pick the discussion and forgot to add the remainder of it... However, as impressive as that is, both the ECMWFand CMC depict enough isentropic rain ahead of the dynamic system, to effectively cut off any chance of surface based storms. Nonetheless, with considerable differences between the GFS and ECMWF, the forecast remains highly uncertain and with such impressive wind fields, all interests should pay close attention to forecast changes as the system draws nearer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
max100 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 With all this impending "doom". Why do most offices have highs next week from 50-60?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 With all this impending "doom". Why do most offices have highs next week from 50-60?? Climo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 With all this impending "doom". Why do most offices have highs next week from 50-60?? If there's limited CAD/precip, it could get to 50 because the main cold air source would be due to CAD. GA Folks, The 12z JMA from best I can tell is probably a ZR/IP CAD hit for CAd regions incl. GA and with 2"+ of qpf! The ukmet looks great. The CMC is too warm due to limited CAD but has a great Miller A/very wet. The Euro has nice CAD initially but the precip. is delayed and the low seems to get too strong thus bringing up too much warmth as 850's get to ~+7 C. Still ~1" of qpf N GA. I like to see +5 C or colder. So, it isn't that far off and it wouldn't surprise me if the next run is back to major ZR/IP, as suggested by at least half its members. The gfs is in lala land with its way too progressive low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
max100 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 The contrast in temps is astounding, 90 in TX,, 0 and below in Nebraska. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Larry, I think the euro will come back around, but not going to lie, I'm a little less impressed with this one. For some reason the 2m temps bother me. I think it will be colder than forecasted, but it retreats very quickly. I don't know why, but they are all showing it. The dynamical setup with the ULL is very impressive but the low levels are torchy. Again, I think wrong, but don't like some of the stuff seen today. I know it's only 1 run of the king, but something I guess to see if it's starting s trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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