mackerel_sky Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 Yeah, the ignore feature really works! He has always been a troll. On a positive note, I have to hand it to GSP. The have stuck by their belief for several days that this one had potential even when some of the models were showing nothing but a warm rain. They have had freezing rain in my forecast from 7 days out and it's still there today. I have a feeling that we will get at least a freezing rain advisory out of this. Ice storm warning if there is enough qpf response. Temps are solidly below freezing for most of the event and 850's look good for the front half. Best guess right now would be snow to sleet to freezing rain and ending as a light cold rain.... IMBY Basically a whole gamut of winter weather. Tonight's runs will be interesting. Yeah , it's funny, TWC had me at 33 and rain about 3 hours ago, now the have freezing rain added ! They must have seen a few of the new model runs! Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
unionsc Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 Is this forecast even possible? This is the only service I have seen with this forecast(weatherbug app). What model do they use to base their forecast on? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 Melish is a lowlife. He's been caught multiple times plagiarizing Robert @WXSouth.com (several of us have the documentation). Please don't post his crap here. Apologies accepted. :-) wow, I've never heard that before. Hell what did he do before robert was around? lol I've never been a fan of him anyway. For some odd reason he was given a lot more credit than I thought he deserved by north ga locals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 I probably shouldn't have said anything but everytime I hear his name it ticks me off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 wow, I've never heard that before. Hell what did he do before robert was around? lol I've never been a fan of him anyway. For some odd reason he was given a lot more credit than I thought he deserved by north ga locals. He can't be worse than Glenn burns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 31/ 21 here out in the countryside. Abundant stars. We should go ahead and start the obs thread for tomorrow storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 Rap keeps trending colder too seem like each run. Well atleast speeding up the precip arrival and slowing down the HP. Its hard to say for sure but with the trends and eventual placement of the 850 low precip could stay all snow 85 N/W into NC. 850 0c line hanging around the VA/NC border. 850 ridge and ridge axis extending down from NY into NC. 925 would support zr into NE GA W SC. A very strong CAD signature on the 925. According to RAP rain should be moving into north GA between 12 and 2 pm. With the abundant clouds should help limit solar radiation and temps from climbing too high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 sounds like you and i are in a similar position. i am pretty much discounting snow around mby but am certainly watching for maybe some zr - thats why its razor thin lol. all we need really would be just 1.5-2* which should at least get something frozen in trees. i am still waiting and hoping for the CAD that roars in and surprises at the last minute with cold enough temps and low enough dewpoints to change a 33 and rain to a 30 and frozen *fingers crossed* this isnt normally the time of year, but i gotta say it sure is looking close at this point for ne ga and the upstate. i see similarities with a few other situations where a day or so out it was just above freezing and a cold rain then as the cad started working in (and i believe there is some snow on the ground and colder temps ne of here but been busy at work so not paying as much attention to other places this week) the cad its just strong enough to drop the temps that extra few degrees that makes a world of difference if the dewpoints can crash a bit we might be in luck. robert has nailed quite a few in the past, and per larry's posts this appears to be a bit abnormal for this time of the year but heck with all the other weird cold and storms in the se this year why not have one more final good bye from winter lol the fact that they are starting to show holding/cooler temps now is certainly interesting. of course we can probably start now casting by tomorrow and see where the temps/dewpoints are edited to add: now if/when we see lookout show up and start posting we know we might be in business from n ga on up through the carolinas lower dewpoints are key for those wanting the models to be too warm, especially to any large degree. Last night, the nam was a whopping 7 degrees too warm here from 11pm to 2am. While there was freezing rain and 31.4 here, it had my location at 38. It completely missed the evaporational cooling, as usual. The 0z gfs was pretty spot on but it's prior runs were 2 to 4 degrees too warm as well. If dewpoints aren't low enough though and there isn't much room to wetbulb, I wouldn't count on the models being too far off. I do think a significant amount of freezing rain or sleet falls over a fair portion of north carolina regardless. That said, it will be a close call for your area, along with the usually elevated areas. nam/gfs do have subfreezing temps from 975mb on up but they are centered further south than usual. You would be right on the edge so it could go either way. if I had to bet, I'd say you would get to below freezing as it's pretty unusual to see subfreezing temps at that level down here but not up there. It would help a lot if precip could come in early enough tomorrow before there is any warming, especially lower elevations. But that is probably asking a lot since none of them bring it in earlier than 15 or 16z. Which given the time of year and marginal airmass..that hurts. As for the upper low itself, I think many need to realize that virtually any hope of snow over ga/al/sc is going to be dependent on strong lift associated with bands of heavy precip which would promote some dynamical cooling under those areas. I don't see this as a case where there is some huge widespread area of snow. In fact, i think some might be throwing bricks because I could see snow falling in one town and possibly accumulating while 25 miles east or west it's just rain. I've been wondering if the models would pick up on this for the last few days ever since the gfs/nam kept showing the bullseye/banding precipitation totals. They finally are but it would be nothing but a guess at trying to figure out where those areas be since each model has those heavier rates in different places and really have changed their location from one run to the next. The only thing I can say is their is a general consensus of the potential for a changeover from gainesville down toward atlanta and winder..that seems to be the best chance for 850s to drop to freezing AND where temps from 900mb down will be cold enough. But it very well could be further east or northeast than that...or even a little further south. It will be a nowcasting type situation, if it happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 I probably shouldn't have said anything but everytime I hear his name it ticks me off. I'm glad you did because I'm wondering how in the hell I've never heard of it before. He can't be worse than Glenn burns. lol..total incompetence and stupidity vs someone who steals work from someone else. We have some great mets down in atlanta. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 Here is a sounding for Marietta about 24 hours from now. That looks like heavy wet snow. am I dreaming here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CherokeeGA Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 wow, I've never heard that before. Hell what did he do before robert was around? lol I've never been a fan of him anyway. For some odd reason he was given a lot more credit than I thought he deserved by north ga locals. I don't know. I personally noticed entire paragraphs lifted from Robert's site, posted on the WSB site as one of Melish's blog entries awhile back. Then a few days later, he went and edited the WSB blog post and removed a lot of the plagiarized material. (Note, here I'm defining plagiarism as "word for word copying of another's sentences". Forecast consensus is forecast consensus, but entire discussion paragraphs copied (complete with weather jokes) goes way beyond saying "80 percent chance of rain".) After that, I figured he's also copying from other sources as well, folks who do that tend to do it a lot and aren't only copying one other person. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 Chris, RAP is really driving teens to 20's Td's before the rain comes in for yall and about 27-28 down here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 On my phone anyone have sref Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
10below Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 if Bastardi is honking then I am paying attention. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 On my phone anyone have sref SREF was very wet... cut off @ hr 33 then moved right up the nc/sc coast then came back open @ hr 60 as it exited the coast at the nc/va border. Was a very wet run for pretty much everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 SREF was wet and warm, though I'm kind of skeptical of using means for thermals. It has the entire state of NC in the 1-2" range and some decent precip up into S VA. I thought the MSLP looked pretty damn good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jtomlinwx Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 Does anybody have the URL for Bastardi's Weatherbull video? I am a member, but can't find it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SD1 Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 http://coolwx.com/cgi-bin/getbufr.cgi?region=NC&stn=KRDU&model=gfs&time=2014030518&field=prec http://coolwx.com/cgi-bin/getbufr.cgi?region=NC&stn=KRDU&model=gfs&time=2014030518&field=tempa If it could trend just a little colder! Jackpot! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 lower dewpoints are key for those wanting the models to be too warm, especially to any large degree. Last night, the nam was a whopping 7 degrees too warm here from 11pm to 2am. While there was freezing rain and 31.4 here, it had my location at 38. It completely missed the evaporational cooling, as usual. The 0z gfs was pretty spot on but it's prior runs were 2 to 4 degrees too warm as well. If dewpoints aren't low enough though and there isn't much room to wetbulb, I wouldn't count on the models being too far off. I do think a significant amount of freezing rain or sleet falls over a fair portion of north carolina regardless. last night i did a momentary "oh please shift north a little" when i saw the precip falling just south of mby. the temp was 34 and the dewpoint 20 lol. alas nary a .00001 fell i have seen too many CAD events recently where the talk was a few degrees colder, etc. but we never did drop below 32. without the lower dewpoints its hard to drop a couple of degrees, let alone 5-8 like we have seen in years past. for some reason a lot of the ull seem to go south of 85 in n ga, at least, ironic since usually the cutoff is the other way around. at this point i am not overly enthused that much is going to happen - looks like will be marginal and not the kind in our favor. however, in the event i see the dewpoints lowering a bit through tomorrow and a more pronounced ne wind, my optimism may temporarily rise (until the dreaded rain and 33 sets in as others have been posting its close and wouldnt take much for a little wintry wx, but in n gan in jan or feb its usually tough, let alone march. unfortunately for a lot of us, while the models suck on pretty much all counts, the last couple of years when they have shown the upcoming set up they have been right at least on the temp not dropping below freezing i just hope our mojo of a bit colder verification from this winter is still in effect Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 Does anybody have the URL for Bastardi's Weatherbull video? I am a member, but can't find it! It was taken off the site...having problems with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 SREF was wet and warm, though I'm kind of skeptical of using means for thermals. It has the entire state of NC in the 1-2" range and some decent precip up into S VA. I thought the MSLP looked pretty damn good. O wow very interesting unreal 24 hours before and we are still somewhat perplexed as to what may occur although I believe the 18z GFS was a lot closer to something real good. Anxious to see 0z nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 nam super digging near biloxi by 00z fri Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 I don't see many changes on the 0z nam when compared to the 18z with the surface map or h5. Looks maybe slightly warmer at 850. Haven't looked at the 2m temps. Folks that can read the maps better than me, please let us know what you see. I'm through hr 36 on instantweathermaps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 I don't see many changes on the 0z nam when compared to the 18z with the surface map or h5. Looks maybe slightly warmer at 850. Haven't looked at the 2m temps. Folks that can read the maps better than me, please let us know what you see. I'm through hr 36 on instantweathermaps. How the ULL strengthens and how it tracks will make a world of difference for everyone it affects. Right now, it's got an 850mb 0c core heading into GA... it'll most likely "die out".. but the thing is.. models can't predict these ULL deals well at all. There have been MANY busts on these atmospheric wizards! Other than that; I see 850 temps way warm and 2ms would suggest ice in the form of sleet or ZR possibly for a lot... then change to rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 I don't see many changes on the 0z nam when compared to the 18z with the surface map or h5. Looks maybe slightly warmer at 850. Haven't looked at the 2m temps. Folks that can read the maps better than me, please let us know what you see. I'm through hr 36 on instantweathermaps. Much colder, big sleet storm for triad, even RDU is sleet/frzn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 I love sleet. Gets on the roads better, great sledding, sticks around longer. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterhawk Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 I probably shouldn't have said anything but everytime I hear his name it ticks me off. Yes you should've said it; everybody needs to know. He completely ripped Robert off back in January and only changed some of it after a few on this board posted about it. Zero class, plagarist, dirt bag... and that's being nice.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 Yea I can't see the 2m temps my instant weather maps on my phone won't cooperate I'm assuming from what pack said the 2m temps are pretty significant Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 2m temps look much colder when compared to 18z NAM. Freezing line pretty much down to CLT at hour 33 when it was near the NC/VA border on 18z at the same time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jtomlinwx Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 It was taken off the site...having problems with it. Thanks! Hopefully they put it back up soon! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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