mackerel_sky Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 why is gsp not in the game yet on the possible major winter storm?They had to put out the discussion, before these latest model runs came out that got everyone exited . Tha 12z runs were not close to anything like these afternoon runs. They may update later if trends continue! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 why is gsp not in the game yet on the possible major winter storm? Because they still have time to issue a winter storm package & I would suspect they are looking for a bit more consistency from the models. They do have the Significant Weather Briefing page up & running. http://www.weather.gov/gsp/brief Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 Well, if the RGEM is usually too warm and if the cold trends continue, we might be in the game afterall. I know...IF IF IF IF. Hard to get excited about sleet/freezing rain when it will all be gone by 7am on Friday anyways, LOL. But I don't buy the RGEM solution just yet, need to see it repeated at 0z, but all the runs today have trended a little colder, the double contour ULL is definitely helping, you want to root for something root for a SLP track about 50 miles east of where it is modeled now, although the mtn folks don't want that :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 What in the world has gotten into the NAVGEM, even colder 18z run than 12z…..even 850's are way into central GA covering all of western NC and GSP too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 Because they still have time to issue a winter storm package & I would suspect they are looking for a bit more consistency from the models. They do have the Significant Weather Briefing page up & running. http://www.weather.gov/gsp/brief Don does GSP set this page up when they are possibly expecting something in the next day or so? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sparkync Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 GFS now drives the snow/sleet line down to Charlotte. with that strong hp.to our ne. It can happen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 Because they still have time to issue a winter storm package & I would suspect they are looking for a bit more consistency from the models. They do have the Significant Weather Briefing page up & running. http://www.weather.gov/gsp/brief Don good catch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 looks that way for the Triad ... unusual to read in the RAH AFD them breaking down the Triad the way did mentioning Lexington to Greensboro to Roxboro then mentioning Winston-Salem to PTI Airport north and west ... James this may be one of those time you wish you were 10 miles north again Yeah, I could see that happening. At least I'm in the west-central Guilford County rather than south or east. I'm very close to the airport. Hard to get excited about sleet/freezing rain when it will all be gone by 7am on Friday anyways, LOL. But I don't buy the RGEM solution just yet, need to see it repeated at 0z, but all the runs today have trended a little colder, the double contour ULL is definitely helping, you want to root for something root for a SLP track about 50 miles east of where it is modeled now, although the mtn folks don't want that :-) This is the end of the winter. There's no time for charity. It's every man or woman's backyard for him/herself. What in the world has gotten into the NAVGEM, even colder 18z run than 12z…..even 850's are way into central GA covering all of western NC and GSP too. The NAVGEM is leading the way... I remember yesterday's 18z run had 850s shoot up to 6-8C for most of us, ha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 What in the world has gotten into the NAVGEM, even colder 18z run than 12z…..even 850's are way into central GA covering all of western NC and GSP too. That’s a very good question. The Navgem is always way too warm within 48 hours of an event. And I have always noticed that it significantly underestimates 2m temps during CAD events. So what is the deal here????? If all I saw was the 18z NAVGEM, I would think a major crippling winter storm was heading my way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 Don does GSP set this page up when they are possibly expecting something in the next day or so? Yes, it's only active when they expect some sort of event. It's updated more frequently than their main afd's. Only a guess but I think they update it as new model suites become available. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 I see the difference on the NAVGEM... it has our southern cut off moving much faster and thus, capitalizing on the CAD much better. At 36hrs, it has the cutoff centered over eastern GA, while the 18z GFS has it centered over Alabama. Let’s hope it’s on to something! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 Just read Roberts link on facebook posted 20 minutes ago and he is saying a significant if not major winter storm now for wnc, cnc upstate sc and northeast ga and west va. for thursday night and friday morning. say the cold high up north will stay in place longer than the models had figured it to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 Yes, it's only active when they expect some sort of event. It's updated more frequently than their main afd's. Only a guess but I think they update it as new model suites become available. alright thanks, come on baby one last nice snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mooner Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 Apologies if this was already posted, but WSB Radio met Kirk Mellish posted an interesting disco earlier today. His bottom line: It will take a while more to nail this one down, and it may never get forecast in advance. We may just be forced to "Nowcast" with latest observations and trends after it starts. UNLESS some strong clear-cut consensus emerges, but since the models keep flip flopping like a mackerel on a deck, I doubt that happens. And even if it did, "upper low, weatherman's woe" is the old saying: so I'll keep an eye on it for any surprises until it's safe. http://www.wsbradio.com/weblogs/kirk-mellishs-weather-commentary/2014/mar/04/3-strikes-and-weather-makes-you-pout/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 Just read Roberts link on facebook posted 20 minutes ago and he is saying a significant if not major winter storm now for wnc, cnc upstate sc and northeast ga and west va. for thursday night and friday morning. say the cold high up north will stay in place longer than the models had figured it to. He's the best, I hope he's right! To have NGA in the game , there must be some amazing changes going on! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 RAP does drive down our Td's into the teens to mid 20's and upper 20's around here by 10am tomorrow am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 well Robert just said things are trending to a major Southern Apps Snowstorm. Robert is good so I have no reason to doubt him. go figure, it always seems like in years past if you have a beautiful day like today a nice or major snowstorm is on the horizon. I've seen this happen many many times over the last 60 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 Looks like a "right of the decimal" special. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vorticity Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 Apologies if this was already posted, but WSB Radio met Kirk Mellish posted an interesting disco earlier today. His bottom line: It will take a while more to nail this one down, and it may never get forecast in advance. We may just be forced to "Nowcast" with latest observations and trends after it starts. UNLESS some strong clear-cut consensus emerges, but since the models keep flip flopping like a mackerel on a deck, I doubt that happens. And even if it did, "upper low, weatherman's woe" is the old saying: so I'll keep an eye on it for any surprises until it's safe. http://www.wsbradio.com/weblogs/kirk-mellishs-weather-commentary/2014/mar/04/3-strikes-and-weather-makes-you-pout/ Time date stamp says it was posted yesterday before 10 in the morning, but what I read still seems to make sense. Clearly a more cautionary note than what I've seen on TV or been seeing out of FFC fwiw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 Apologies if this was already posted, but WSB Radio met Kirk Mellish posted an interesting disco earlier today. His bottom line: It will take a while more to nail this one down, and it may never get forecast in advance. We may just be forced to "Nowcast" with latest observations and trends after it starts. UNLESS some strong clear-cut consensus emerges, but since the models keep flip flopping like a mackerel on a deck, I doubt that happens. And even if it did, "upper low, weatherman's woe" is the old saying: so I'll keep an eye on it for any surprises until it's safe. http://www.wsbradio.com/weblogs/kirk-mellishs-weather-commentary/2014/mar/04/3-strikes-and-weather-makes-you-pout/ Melish is a lowlife. He's been caught multiple times plagiarizing Robert @WXSouth.com (several of us have the documentation). Please don't post his crap here. Apologies accepted. :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 Joe Bastardi Noreaster with ice/snow western/central Carolinas but misses ne. Be patient midwest/ne, pattern loading up next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mooner Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 Melish is a lowlife. He's been caught multiple times plagiarizing Robert @WXSouth.com (several of us have the documentation). Please don't post his crap here. Apologies accepted. :-) Very sorry, I had not heard of him doing that! That's just terrible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 TWC local forecast has me at 33 tomorrow night, with rainfall reaching an inch, and 20-30 mph winds! Sounds fun, and like a close call! sounds like you and i are in a similar position. i am pretty much discounting snow around mby but am certainly watching for maybe some zr - thats why its razor thin lol. all we need really would be just 1.5-2* which should at least get something frozen in trees. i am still waiting and hoping for the CAD that roars in and surprises at the last minute with cold enough temps and low enough dewpoints to change a 33 and rain to a 30 and frozen *fingers crossed* this isnt normally the time of year, but i gotta say it sure is looking close at this point for ne ga and the upstate. That’s a very good question. The Navgem is always way too warm within 48 hours of an event. And I have always noticed that it significantly underestimates 2m temps during CAD events. So what is the deal here????? If all I saw was the 18z NAVGEM, I would think a major crippling winter storm was heading my way. i see similarities with a few other situations where a day or so out it was just above freezing and a cold rain then as the cad started working in (and i believe there is some snow on the ground and colder temps ne of here but been busy at work so not paying as much attention to other places this week) the cad its just strong enough to drop the temps that extra few degrees that makes a world of difference if the dewpoints can crash a bit we might be in luck. robert has nailed quite a few in the past, and per larry's posts this appears to be a bit abnormal for this time of the year but heck with all the other weird cold and storms in the se this year why not have one more final good bye from winter lol the fact that they are starting to show holding/cooler temps now is certainly interesting. of course we can probably start now casting by tomorrow and see where the temps/dewpoints are edited to add: now if/when we see lookout show up and start posting we know we might be in business from n ga on up through the carolinas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 Yall, this will not be a significant event for non-nc areas. I am thinking WWA criteria for parts of NC at best but rain for Charlotte still. All models have the 0c line racing North after sunrise. Even if we have clouds, the sun will be stronger than November through February Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 Yall, this will not be a significant event for non-nc areas. I am thinking WWA criteria for parts of NC at best but rain for Charlotte still. All models have the 0c line racing North after sunrise. Even if we have clouds, the sun will be stronger than November through February You've never been wrong before ? I think alot has trended torwards some non rain outside the mtns. You just love to troll/ find negative twists for everybody wanting snow. Happens alot. There can be 7 models pointing to snow and 1 showing rain, and you will post the 1 that shows rain and say its not gonna snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 we did drop 7 degrees this past hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 Bastardi has posted a special Weatherbull on Western and Central North Carolina snow and ice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 You've never been wrong before ? I think alot has trended torwards some non rain outside the mtns. You just love to troll/ find negative twists for everybody wanting snow. Happens alot. There can be 7 models pointing to snow and 1 showing rain, and you will post the 1 that shows rain and say its not gonna snow. Those were 4 individual models. I do not expect models to change dramatically. One can imagine in 2013 that sigma values are prolly like .005 or something to that magnitude. 3/4 have relatively the same placement and ALL have the 0C line racing north after sunrise. If the precip moved through earlier, it would be a different story. I dont let my emotion cloud my judgment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 You've never been wrong before ? I think alot has trended torwards some non rain outside the mtns. You just love to troll/ find negative twists for everybody wanting snow. Happens alot. There can be 7 models pointing to snow and 1 showing rain, and you will post the 1 that shows rain and say its not gonna snow. Yeah, the ignore feature really works! He has always been a troll. On a positive note, I have to hand it to GSP. The have stuck by their belief for several days that this one had potential even when some of the models were showing nothing but a warm rain. They have had freezing rain in my forecast from 7 days out and it's still there today. I have a feeling that we will get at least a freezing rain advisory out of this. Ice storm warning if there is enough qpf response. Temps are solidly below freezing for most of the event and 850's look good for the front half. Best guess right now would be snow to sleet to freezing rain and ending as a light cold rain.... IMBY Basically a whole gamut of winter weather. Tonight's runs will be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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