tarheelwx Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 Really not sure why RAH isn't putting at least a few counties under a watch. Latest nws forecast for mby has us down to 28 tomorrow night. If everything stays as is tonight, I suspect we'll see them by the late night news. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WSNC Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 Really not sure why RAH isn't putting at least a few counties under a watch. Latest nws forecast for mby has us down to 28 tomorrow night. If everything stays as is tonight, I suspect we'll see them by the late night news. TW It's getting close based on their forecast for my area. .THURSDAY NIGHT...A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SLEET IN THE EVENING... THEN FREEZING RAIN...SLEET WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT. SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATION AROUND AN INCH. ICE ACCUMULATION OF A TENTH TO ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH. COLD WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. NORTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION NEAR 100 PERCENT. .FRIDAY...WIDESPREAD SNOW WITH POSSIBLE FREEZING RAIN...SLEET AND RAIN IN THE MORNING...THEN RAIN LIKELY WITH POCKETS OF SNOW AND DRIZZLE IN THE AFTERNOON. LITTLE OR NO ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S. NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION NEAR 100 PERCENT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 RGEM gives our storm 2 while its closed off on the NC/SC border @hr 48 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 GFS closed off this run early as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 Wow at snow map on RGEM http://meteocentre.com/models/get_accum.php?mod=gemreg&run=18&type=SN&hi=000&hf=048〈=en&map=na Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 Wow at snow map on RGEM http://meteocentre.com/models/get_accum.php?mod=gemreg&run=18&type=SN&hi=000&hf=048〈=en&map=na Accumulating snow doesn't look that far from your house on that map, Pack! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 Looks like the GFS is really trying, but still having some major convective feedback issues it appears. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pilotwx Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 It going to trend colder as I said earlier the models now have something to key in on with the ULL. Also most not all are showing a pretty good chance this is snow if you look@ the contours and Hp placement. I think most of the mountains and Northern Foothills get more snow than Ice. The NW piedmont could end up the winner just by looking @ where the Def. zone is set-up as well just marginal temps. Big ole flakes fly with this setup who ever gets snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 Wow at snow map on RGEM http://meteocentre.com/models/get_accum.php?mod=gemreg&run=18&type=SN&hi=000&hf=048〈=en&map=na Oh, wow, that's big. I didn't expect that. Much colder than prior runs and the RGEM often runs a little warm. The Triad is right on the dividing line, per par, hahaha. Looks like we got some snow and a lot of freezing rain (more snow in Winston-Salem and more snow for me than Greensboro-proper). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 run looks colder at 2m Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 Wow, I saw this trending colder at the surface but didn't expect the mid-levels to cool enough for snow here. It's March and March is crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 run looks colder at 2m OMG, my provider's 18Z GFS clown gives the ATL area a boatload of snow (4-8") from the upper low on Thursday afternoon!!!! Keep in mind that GFS clown maps are NOT overdone like the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 GFS now drives the snow/sleet line down to Charlotte. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
norcarolinian Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 Oh, wow, that's big. I didn't expect that. Much colder than prior runs and the RGEM often runs a little warm. The Triad is right on the dividing line, per par, hahaha. Looks like we got some snow and a lot of freezing rain (more snow in Winston-Salem and more snow for me than Greensboro-proper). looks that way for the Triad ... unusual to read in the RAH AFD them breaking down the Triad the way did mentioning Lexington to Greensboro to Roxboro then mentioning Winston-Salem to PTI Airport north and west ... James this may be one of those time you wish you were 10 miles north again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 The GFS is a whisker away from all snow in Charlotte through hour 48. Pretty amazing trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 OMG, my provider's 18Z GFS clown gives the ATL area a boatload of snow (4-8") from the upper low on Thursday afternoon!!!! Keep in mind that GFS clown maps are NOT overdone like the Euro. Anybody got the clown, please post at work. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 The GFS is a whisker away from all snow in Charlotte through hour 48. Pretty amazing trend. How's GSP , are they in the game with this run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 .50-.75 all frozen here this run from 18Z GFS....is the trend our friend. If 18Z RGEM and 18Z GFS are right (and for the most part 18Z NAM) then a major winter storm is 24 hours away for Western and central NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 OMG, my provider's 18Z GFS clown gives the ATL area a boatload of snow (4-8") from the upper low on Thursday afternoon!!!! Keep in mind that GFS clown maps are NOT overdone like the Euro. Instantweather is very conservative with it's snow maps too, wow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 How's GSP , are they in the game with this run? Looks like RN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 TWC local forecast has me at 33 tomorrow night, with rainfall reaching an inch, and 20-30 mph winds! Sounds fun, and like a close call! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 For us RDU folks, the RGEM is literally 33F with 850's below 1C for a good 10-12 hour period, LOL. The coldest rain there could be. But that was the coldest RGEM run yet, so unless it backs it up at 0z tonight I wouldn't trust it just yet, although the 18z GFS does match up with it fairly well. But I hate the 18z GFS runs, seems like they are always wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 OMG, my provider's 18Z GFS clown gives the ATL area a boatload of snow (4-8") from the upper low on Thursday afternoon!!!! Keep in mind that GFS clown maps are NOT overdone like the Euro. oh wow! I see a 2-4" band from ATL and E to NE on Wxbell site. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 For us RDU folks, the RGEM is literally 33F with 850's below 1C for a good 10-12 hour period, LOL. The coldest rain there could be. But that was the coldest RGEM run yet, so unless it backs it up at 0z tonight I wouldn't trust it just yet, although the 18z GFS does match up with it fairly well. But I hate the 18z GFS runs, seems like they are always wrong. Well, if the RGEM is usually too warm and if the cold trends continue, we might be in the game afterall. I know...IF IF IF IF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 Someone above 3,000 ft in the WNC Blue Ridge is going to get 6 plus out of this, low track and just enough cold air aloft= heavy wet snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 Larry, I really think we are going to have to watch the ULL very closely, well you don't need me to tell you that. Models are trending colder with the mid deck on that....I wouldn't be surprised if N and Mid GA sees some "surprise snow" with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormsfury Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 this storm system likely to have a myriad of p-type issues. Varying strengths of precipitation rates will dictate types at a given time. A lot of places may get graupel at times with 500mb temps drop below -20c across the SE with the ULL's passage. Not saying it's accumulating or will, but this one will be throwing tons of surprises. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 .50-.75 all frozen here this run from 18Z GFS....is the trend our friend. If 18Z RGEM and 18Z GFS are right (and for the most part 18Z NAM) then a major winter storm is 24 hours away for Western and central NC. why is gsp not in the game yet on the possible major winter storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 this storm system likely to have a myriad of p-type issues. Varying strengths of precipitation rates will dictate types at a given time. A lot of places may get graupel at times with 500mb temps drop below -20c across the SE with the ULL's passage. Not saying it's accumulating or will, but this one will be throwing tons of surprises. I agree...this will "surpise" a few people Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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