packbacker Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 The clown gives GSO 10.3", ha. 850s are 1C, so I'd guestimate that's ~3" of IP. I have never known the Euro to bust on the cold side with temps, great shot at sleet storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 Mtns are snow on euro? I knew it was close Yes, that or sleet, I don't have temps on the entire column. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 Yall, the 0c line never makes it past I-40 on the Euro.... Snow maps are rubbish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 I have never known the Euro to bust on the cold side with temps, great shot at sleet storm. Are there significant changes with the strength and placement of the High or ULL on the Euro that's causing more wintery precip? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 Does anyone have the euro's qpf for GSO while surface temps are below freezing? Thanks TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 By the way, the 12z GEFS is much wetter than the 6z or 0z: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 I'm really not expecting much for the RDU area, but I think this is going to be very close. One wild card we have is the snow cover to the north (basically north NC northward). Models are suppose to take this into account but I'm not sure how well they do this. http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow_usa.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
timnc910 Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 That's a lot of rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 Does anyone have the euro's qpf for GSO while surface temps are below freezing? Thanks TW ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: GSO LAT= 36.08 LON= -79.93 ELE= 909 12Z MAR05 2 M 850 SFC SFC 700 6 HR 500 1000 TMP TMP PRS RHU RHU QPF HGT 500 © © (MB) (PCT) (PCT) (IN) (DM) THK WED 12Z 05-MAR -1.6 3.6 1024 44 18 0.00 563 544 WED 18Z 05-MAR 7.6 3.8 1022 44 33 0.00 563 546 THU 00Z 06-MAR 2.4 3.6 1022 70 31 0.00 564 546 THU 06Z 06-MAR -0.3 1.1 1026 63 28 0.00 566 545 THU 12Z 06-MAR -2.0 0.5 1029 66 31 0.00 564 541 THU 18Z 06-MAR 4.5 0.5 1027 53 32 0.00 564 542 FRI 00Z 07-MAR 2.7 0.6 1024 66 85 0.00 563 544 FRI 06Z 07-MAR -0.2 1.8 1021 93 99 0.31 561 544 FRI 12Z 07-MAR -0.7 1.3 1017 91 97 0.52 558 544 FRI 18Z 07-MAR 1.5 2.3 1014 88 93 0.26 557 546 SAT 00Z 08-MAR 3.4 2.1 1014 83 63 0.14 558 547 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 well the trends havent been horrible, and if this were about a month ago i would be excited, but i am just not convinced that since we are a week into march (esp for n ga) the one degree either way swing will be the colder degree lol. looks like low to mid 30s and rain based on climo and the models not coming in "significantly" colder but showing fairly marginal up through nc. while nc may be ok, if its marginal over that wide a difference the southern portions probably wont be under-the-margin so to speak. my other excitement-tempering thing is that even if it happens to hit 31/32 if there is that much falling latent heat release will prohibit much around here. generally to get "decent" icing i like to see it at least around 30 or colder (that would be even more so for this time of year) if the ull gets going, though, whoever is lucky enough to be under its path could see something though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 The clown gives GSO 10.3", ha. 850s are 1C, so I'd guestimate that's ~3" of IP or a hell of an ice storm. Some 0C 850s creep into N NC, so a changeover to snow in some areas isn't impossible, I suppose, but it looks like pingermageddon or an ice storm for most of WNC. It is a little colder than last night's run and it wouldn't take much more for snow. Surface temperatures are in the 30-31 degree range, verbatim. Asheboro's 850s are significantly worse than GSO, though. It starts at 1C, then warms to 3-4C while GSO and N/W is still at 1C. EDIT: Verbatim, Asheboro is 33-34, so it's too warm there. Of course, the Euro usually runs warm. Anyone S/E of GSO appears to warm, verbatim. There's over 1" of QPF for all of WNC, though. The 546 dam 1000-500 mb thickness line mostly hangs around south of GSO, for reference. Hey James does the moisture on the Euro make it into SW VA or is it shunted to our south? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 12 euro from the maps I have 1-3" strip of snow from Asheville to Boone and along NW of 85 Corridor( South Hill, Roxboro, GSO,WS,CLT) then over to rain and lots of it. IF the 2m temps are true then lots of ZR. Temps gradually warm in the SW sections. Longer duration NW near Boone and along the VA border. As the system pulls away and the moisture stops the CAD begins to fall apart. Buddy. You may see some light snow but the heaviest Qpf is focused to your south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: GSO LAT= 36.08 LON= -79.93 ELE= 909 12Z MAR05 2 M 850 SFC SFC 700 6 HR 500 1000 TMP TMP PRS RHU RHU QPF HGT 500 © © (MB) (PCT) (PCT) (IN) (DM) THK WED 12Z 05-MAR -1.6 3.6 1024 44 18 0.00 563 544 WED 18Z 05-MAR 7.6 3.8 1022 44 33 0.00 563 546 THU 00Z 06-MAR 2.4 3.6 1022 70 31 0.00 564 546 THU 06Z 06-MAR -0.3 1.1 1026 63 28 0.00 566 545 THU 12Z 06-MAR -2.0 0.5 1029 66 31 0.00 564 541 THU 18Z 06-MAR 4.5 0.5 1027 53 32 0.00 564 542 FRI 00Z 07-MAR 2.7 0.6 1024 66 85 0.00 563 544 FRI 06Z 07-MAR -0.2 1.8 1021 93 99 0.31 561 544 FRI 12Z 07-MAR -0.7 1.3 1017 91 97 0.52 558 544 FRI 18Z 07-MAR 1.5 2.3 1014 88 93 0.26 557 546 SAT 00Z 08-MAR 3.4 2.1 1014 83 63 0.14 558 547 Thanks Jax. Another model with at least warning level frozen/freezing precip for GSO tomorrow night and Friday morning. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 I just took a look at old wx maps for 3/1-15 for the period 1969-2004 (2005-2013 not easily attainable). For the 36 years of 3/1-15's (1969-2004), I was unable to find anything even close to as impressive as what is about to occur in terms of a strong NE high with great CAD in combo with a Gulf low of any kind, Miller A or B. ZERO cases even close! I had suspected it would be hard to find, but this confirms it for me. Therefore, I feel that what is about to happen may surprise many folks in the SE CAD zones of NC/SC/GA. Also, perhaps the models won't handle the low level cold well. I think that the potential from this storm is being taken too lightly by a good number here...my opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NGA WINTER Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 I just took a look at old wx maps for 3/1-15 for the period 1969-2004 (2005-2013 not easily attainable). For the 36 years of 3/1-15's (1969-2004), I was unable to find anything even close to as impressive as what is about to occur in terms of a combo of a strong NE high with great CAD in combo with a Gulf low of any kind, Miller A or B. ZERO cases even close! I had suspected it would be hard to find, but this confirms it for me. Therefore, I feel that what is about to happen may surprise many folks in the SE CAD zones of NC/SC/GA. Also, perhaps the models won't handle the low level cold well. I think that the potential from this storm is being taken too lightly by a good number here...my opinion. Larry thanks for the hard work. Very interesting for sure. Is it close for us nega folks? What's the temps predicted to be when most of the moisture falls? Could models be slightly warm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 Are there significant changes with the strength and placement of the High or ULL on the Euro that's causing more wintery precip? The ULL was stronger, solid 2 contour and the HP was a hair stronger, but the biggest difference, IMO is the precip/SLP got here quicker, starts in NC a little before 7pm tomorrow night and hard precip around midnight, it was perfectly timed. Not real sure how it can get any better....3 contour maybe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 Larry thanks for the hard work. Very interesting for sure. Is it close for us nega folks? What's the temps predicted to be when most of the moisture falls? Could models be slightly warm? You're welcome. Yes, they could be slighty warm. Yes, it is close to say the least in CAD zones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 Also, I researched RDU ZR/IP CAD events in the first half of March between the 3/1971 event and 2004 and found these: - 3/7-9/1989: pretty light but long duration included 1/2" IP - 3/13/1980: light to moderate ZR - 3/8/1978: light ZR - 3/3/1978: significant ZR For the above four RDU events, the strong high CAD and Gulf low combo was nothing like what is about to occur! These are in addition to the 3/71, 3/62, 3/60 (several), and 3/48 SE CAD events. So, to repeat, nothing even close to the upcoming strong high/great CAD and Gulf low combo occurred even once during 3/1-15 during 1969-2004. Be wary! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncwxlvr Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 Also, I researched RDU ZR/IP CAD events in the first half of March between the 3/1971 event and 2004 and found these: - 3/7-9/1989: pretty light but long duration included 1/2" IP - 3/13/1980: light to moderate ZR - 3/8/1978: light ZR - 3/3/1978: significant ZR For the above four RDU events, the strong high CAD and Gulf low combo was nothing like what is about to occur! These are in addition to the 3/71, 3/62, 3/60 (several), and 3/48 SE CAD events. Could the generally above normal temperatures over the Arctic have anything to do with making this scenario just not cold enough? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 Could the generally above normal temperatures over the Arctic have anything to do with making this scenario just not cold enough? Interesting question, but I doubt it for the most part. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 Great work Larry. I thought the models would bust on temp today, but cleared out and sitting at 52. Gonna be interesting to see what happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 Also, I researched RDU ZR/IP CAD events in the first half of March between the 3/1971 event and 2004 and found these: - 3/7-9/1989: pretty light but long duration included 1/2" IP - 3/13/1980: light to moderate ZR - 3/8/1978: light ZR - 3/3/1978: significant ZR For the above four RDU events, the strong high CAD and Gulf low combo was nothing like what is about to occur! These are in addition to the 3/71, 3/62, 3/60 (several), and 3/48 SE CAD events. So, to repeat, nothing even close to the upcoming strong high/great CAD and Gulf low combo occurred even once during 3/1-15 during 1969-2004. Be wary! My interpretation of what you're saying here is that this current situation is a much better setup (from a winter weather perspective) than those events that have produced winter weather in the past. If I'm not understanding that right, let me know. If I'm reading you correctly, though, why in the world is this still showing up as such a marginal event? Are all of the models really THAT bad, even at this close range? Why isn't it colder? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillerA Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 So anyone's guess as too whether winter weather products issued by gsp or blacksburg From Greensboro to the mountains and North? I am Waiting to see What gsp has to say in the disco, usually by 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 Not sure what kind of affects this will have on the system tomorrow. Maybe slightly east with the SLP bc of a stronger wedge possible?! I personally still think this area into the traid might be too warm and mostly rain. Which ever model you want to believe the general theme is the 0c 850 retreats to the north before majority of the precip comes in. Not enough wedging and cold air. Well even though its the rap and only 1 run so far I thought this was interesting. More of a potent ridge axis sliding down into NC with colder temps at the same time of day just before precip moves in tomorrow afternoon. If the precip moves in with sub 32 temps at 850 may help to lock in the cold aloft with a hybrid CAD Rap GFS NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 My interpretation of what you're saying here is that this current situation is a much better setup (from a winter weather perspective) than those events that have produced winter weather in the past. If I'm not understanding that right, let me know. If I'm reading you correctly, though, why in the world is this still showing up as such a marginal event? Are all of the models really THAT bad, even at this close range? Why isn't it colder? I don't have an answer. And the models may still be right in that it won't be cold enough. Who knows? I still haven't said it will definitely get bad. But I'm saying don't trust they'll be right considering the very rare situation for early March and be prepared for it to get bad just in case. And there is a warm bias for the Euro at least. Yes, that is correct when considering the look of the map. No granted, the sfc high for those 4 RDU ZR events could have been colder. However, only one high was stronger (1047 3/8/1989 but with no Gulf low..it was a mainly coastal event. The low was well offshore the SE US) Other 3 -3/13/1980: only a 1030 high -3/8/1978: only a 1031 high - 3/3/1978: only a 1028 high Edit: I'll be out of pocket for awhile and may not be able to reply for awhile. Sorry. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 You're welcome. Yes, they could be slighty warm. Yes, it is close to say the least in CAD zones. i am certainly paying attention to this potential event, but keeping my expectations in check just due to past experience lol. the dewpoint is 28 today and hopefully falls off tomorrow. i think that rather than watching each model run at this point i am just tempering excitement and watching what happens. the current temps are forecasted about 33/34 here tomorrow night. if the cad starts moving in and dewpoints start dropping it could be a fun little late winter storm. i have just seen too many 33 and rain storms to get too excited. the models used to always underestimate the cold. but lately the cads havent really come in a lot colder (although the cold air this year has tended to be a bit more so than forecasted). if the hp really does end up being close to that strong and a good position then a nice surprise could be in the offing. also i am honestly surprised with just how bad the models have seemed to handle things this year even a day or so out (a week away doesnt surprise me). but with such extreme fluctuations even run to run its hard to put much faith in any of them really for parts of ne ga, at least, it wont take much to end up with some zr over rain (just a few degrees). too bad this wasnt last night when it was already in the low to mid 30s with dewpoints around 20 lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 Usually NAVGEM is warm, never seen it colder than other models, in fact it shows a pocket of 850's below 0C due to the ULL, which is what I expect, kind of surprised with a 2 contour ULL on the Euro we didn't see more of this... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 I don't have an answer. And the models may still be right in that it won't be cold enough. Who knows? I still haven't said it will definitely get bad. But I'm saying don't trust they'll be right considering the very rare situation for early March and be prepared for it to get bad just in case. And there is a warm bias for the Euro at least. Yes, that is correct when considering the look of the map. No granted, the sfc high for those 4 RDU ZR events could have been colder. However, only one high was stronger (1047 3/8/1989 but with no Gulf low..it was a mainly coastal event. The low was well offshore the SE US) Other 3 -3/13/1980: only a 1030 high -3/8/1978: only a 1031 high - 3/3/1978: only a 1028 high Edit: I'll be out of pocket for awhile and may not be able to reply for awhile. Sorry. . Gotcha. Thanks for the info. At the very least, this will be a new one to put in the case study file. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 Usually NAVGEM is warm, never seen it colder than other models, in fact it shows a pocket of 850's below 0C due to the ULL, which is what I expect, kind of surprised with a 2 contour ULL on the Euro we didn't see more of this... I wish there were a lot more purples showing up in SE Canada. I think that would help a lot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 Hour 33 on the nam is much colder at 850. Snow in mountains when the 12z had the 0c line in VA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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