tarheelwx Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 Does the euro even matter today? TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pilotwx Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 As with all ULL placement is key, but in this situation the cold is not there or at least the models are telling us that. But what the models are having problem with is that until the ULL developes the models have no guidance on the cold remember it manufactures its own cold, so the models are cooling and will continue to cool on the next runs as long as we see the closed low. With a 1035 plus high varying higher on several models I think we will see more snow than is being forecasted and sleet and FZR. Have a feeling this is a last second deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 I think the EURO makes or breaks the case today....(again, only talking about W and C NC with wintry weather) IF** ULL is strong enough, maybe a little strip across GA as 850's get to 0-1c Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 As with all ULL placement is key, but in this situation the cold is not there or at least the models are telling us that. But what the models are having problem with is that until the ULL developes the models have no guidance on the cold remember it manufactures its own cold, so the models are cooling and will continue to cool on the next runs as long as we see the closed low. With a 1035 plus high varying higher on several models I think we will see more snow than is being forecasted and sleet and FZR. Have a feeling this is a last second deal. I would guess that the model physics would allow the model to be in the ballpark with the temps, based on how they see the ULL evolving. Now, they may be wrong on how they see the ULL evolving, but they're probably not too far off the mark with mid level temps, based on what they're seeing right now with their depictions of the ULL. I might be wrong on that, but my suspicion is, they handle this within a decent margin of error....of course, if the margin of error is only 1 degree, that could make a huge difference in a marginal situation like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_WX10 Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 How does over .5 inches fall as snow with 850's not below freezing but for 3-6 hours all with light preip during that time period? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 You guys have to calm down! You're going to give yourselves heart attacks looking at every little detail. ULL & CAD aren't forecast well at all. This is definitely a wait and see what happens event. Still wildly different solutions so close to the event. Example from KCAE's forecast discussion for today: THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE TOO WARM DUE TO THE WEDGE PATTERN...SO HAVE UNDERCUT NUMBERS ONCE AGAIN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 How does over .5 inches fall as snow with 850's not below freezing but for 3-6 hours all with light preip during that time period? Yeah, I'm a little confused too. Bufkit doesnt give GSO any pure snow. It does show a little SNPL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_WX10 Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 Yeah, I'm a little confused too. Bufkit doesnt give GSO any pure snow. It does show a little SNPL. is there any situation when it can snow with 850's not below freezing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 is there any situation when it can snow with 850's not below freezing? Well, I mean if 850s were within ~0.5C of freezing, then yes, but that's not the case here. On Meteostar, I see 850s starting out as -1C before warming up to 2-3C during most of the precip. That could be a little snow to start, but that's about it. The 850 mb Td does stay at our below freezing, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_WX10 Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 Well, I mean if 850s were within ~0.5C of freezing, then yes, but I'm not sure that was the case here. thats what I thought. So how was that spitting out .5 qpf of snow. Was it picking up some of it as snow when it should have been sleet or freezing rain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 thats what I thought. So how was that spitting out .5 qpf of snow. Was it picking up some of it as snow when it should have been sleet or freezing rain? Maybe so. Or they're using the 850 mb Td (which is at our below freezing for the duration) and assuming wet bulbing? I don't know. It's probably just a case where the P-type algorithms are wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 thats what I thought. So how was that spitting out .5 qpf of snow. Was it picking up some of it as snow when it should have been sleet or freezing rain? The Cobb bufkit data matches up better with the GFS run I believe for gso: .1 snow, .33 sleet, .13 freezing rain, .1 rain http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/cobb/cobb.php?model=gfs&site=kgso Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 Euro cuts off @ hr24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 BTW, the 12z UKMET probably starts off N/W of I-85 as snow. In fact, NW NC (Boone) probably stays all-snow, but there's not a lot of precip near Boone. 2m temperatures suck for the most part (though maybe the UKMET sucks at surface temperatures?). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 The Cobb bufkit data matches up better with the GFS run I believe for gso: .1 snow, .33 sleet, .13 freezing rain, .1 rain http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/cobb/cobb.php?model=gfs&site=kgso Even RDU gets .20 of freezing rain. Just a little colder and this could be more significant for us. http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/cobb/cobb.php?model=gfs&site=krdu Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 At this point, I'm more interested in surface temps and how much falls before we climb above 32. Most models have close to .50 at GSO with temps aob 32. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 Euro has a lot of frozen something from 85 and points west in NC, including GSP and SW VA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 At this point, I'm more interested in surface temps and how much falls before we climb above 32. Most models have close to .50 at GSO with temps aob 32. TW Robert told me this morning he thinks about 6 hours of snow before changing over with a slushy accumulation, He figures a wwa will go into affect. However he said this is a weatherman's nightmare as a degree change could be a major snow or all rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 Euro has a lot of frozen something from 85 and points west in NC, including GSP and SW VA.Is the upper low on the Euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 Robert told me this morning he thinks about 6 hours of snow before changing over with a slushy accumulation, He figures a wwa will go into affect. However he said this is a weatherman's nightmare as a degree change could be a major snow or all rain.Thanks Stroke. He had no ice concerns?TW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 Thanks Stroke. He had no ice concerns? TW. He said a big mixture of precip. But he did say anything was possible with temps close. One of those storms where your neighbor get a foot and you get rain LOL. He said he figured we would be salting not plowing but again can't rule anything out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 Is the upper low on the Euro?Yes, has a second contour @hr 48 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 Euro has a lot of frozen something from 85 and points west in NC, including GSP and SW VA. Don't leave us hanging! Anyway, it looks like the full 12z model suite has trended wetter and colder! If the models are 1-2 degrees too warm on surface temps, this is a much more significant deal with icing. 1-2 degrees colder aloft means someone could get thumped with snow. Such a marginal event with extremely high bust potential! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 Don't leave us hanging! Anyway, it looks like the full 12z model suite has trended wetter and colder! If the models are 1-2 degrees too warm on surface temps, this is a much more significant deal with icing. 1-2 degrees colder aloft means someone could get thumped with snow. Such a marginal event with extremely high bust potential! The clown gives GSO 10.3", ha. 850s are 1C, so I'd guestimate that's ~3" of IP or a hell of an ice storm. Some 0C 850s creep into N NC, so a changeover to snow in some areas isn't impossible, I suppose, but it looks like pingermageddon or an ice storm for most of WNC. It is a little colder than last night's run and it wouldn't take much more for snow. Surface temperatures are in the 30-31 degree range, verbatim. Asheboro's 850s are significantly worse than GSO, though. It starts at 1C, then warms to 3-4C while GSO and N/W is still at 1C. EDIT: Verbatim, Asheboro is 33-34, so it's too warm there. Of course, the Euro usually runs warm. Anyone S/E of GSO appears to warm, verbatim. There's over 1" of QPF for all of WNC, though. The 546 dam 1000-500 mb thickness line mostly hangs around south of GSO, for reference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 With the HPC lowering confidence in winter precipitation, this is my final forecast for CLT; Snow- 0-trace ; Freezing rain- - 0-.10" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 Don't leave us hanging! Anyway, it looks like the full 12z model suite has trended wetter and colder! If the models are 1-2 degrees too warm on surface temps, this is a much more significant deal with icing. 1-2 degrees colder aloft means someone could get thumped with snow. Such a marginal event with extremely high bust potential! HAH, sorry :-) Yes, this is painful to watch, 1-2 degrees on 2m and 850's is the difference between a lot of ice/snow v/a rain. Verbatim the triad is a lot of sleet, could be frzn though. RDU is 34F with 850's around 2C, painful, thank goodness this isn't Jan as this would be tough to take, Dec 2009 all over again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 This sounds like all rain for central NC or one of those surprise events like the Dec 02 ice storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 The clown gives GSO 10.3", ha. 850s are 1C, so I'd guestimate that's ~3" of IP. Thanks for the update! How are the surface temps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY18 Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 HAH, sorry :-) Yes, this is painful to watch, 1-2 degrees on 2m and 850's is the difference between a lot of ice/snow v/a rain. Verbatim the triad is a lot of sleet, could be frzn though. RDU is 34F with 850's around 2C, painful, thank goodness this isn't Jan as this would be tough to take, Dec 2009 all over again. Mtns are snow on euro? I knew it was close Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.