packfan98 Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 If GFS comes in anything like the NAM, you'd think maybe a watch goes up from the triad over to mt airy to at least hickory for tomorrow night to noon Friday. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 If GFS comes in anything like the NAM, you'd think maybe a watch goes up from the triad over to mt airy to at least hickory for tomorrow night to noon Friday. TW It's such a marginal event. The cobb output on the nam has the lowest temperature at 30.1F. This is about half a degree lower than the 6z though. One more degree would have huge implications on sensible weather in the Triad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 From my experience, 30 is cold enough to sustain pretty good accretion. 31 is marginal and 32 really doesn't cut it. I did see GSO down to 29 Thursday am around 1 or 4. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 The 12Z NAM has 925's getting to just below freezing from ~4 PM Thu til ~midnight that night in much of the ATL-AHN corridor while 850's are ~+4 to +6....i.e., very impressive wedging with that kind of differential! However, the two meter temp.'s don't get below 35-37. If these are accurate, it would obviously be just a cold rain. However, if the cold is being sig. underestimated at the surface, there could be big trouble in the form of major ZR as 1-1.5" of qpf falls during those hours. I'd be very wary about that possibility considering the very impressive high/wedge. When there is strong wedging and lots of precip., 850's of +4 to +6 have often produced major ZR there. Verbatim, the 12Z NAM gives GSO a sig. to major ZR as it is! Edit: From my experiences as well as just looking at history of major ATL icestorms, a coldest of 30 absolutely can be bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 http://68.226.77.253/text/NAMSFC/NAM_kgso.txt. Here's a link showing 29 at GSO. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 The 4km NAM is even more impressive with the 850's and 925s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 Looks like GFS might be having convective feedback issues....Either that, or qpf inland will stop over central GA and SC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 everyday I hope that the trends are in our favor for a snowstorm, just doesn't look like its going to happen. been watching for over a week on here looking for good news. guess I should give up, was really hoping for this one, I would have been ready for spring with one last good snow, guess I'm going to have to be ready for spring anyway. think the winter has about given up. I would have thought with the cold air north of us and a ull the cold would wrap into the storm. things usually go more against us than for us...... No I'm not moving up north! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 Wow 12z GFS is very close to something bigger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 On the SFC 12z GFS looks like ice along 85...with snow NW and west of 85 then switching over to ZR. QPF is better but still not as much as the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 The 12Z NAM has me a bit concerned for the CAD areas. My closest airport location is MRN. On the extracted data, it prints out 1.12 of QPF with the highest temp being 33 and dewpoints below freezing. Some of that (.50) falls with temps below freezing. If NAM is a degree or two too warm, it's going to get icy icy icy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneTracker Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 On the SFC 12z GFS looks like ice along 85...with snow NW and west of 85 then switching over to ZR. QPF is better but still not as much as the NAM. Not even close to the QPF the NAM has, especially over the Upstate SC and mountains of WNC. Essentially night and day differences in the QPF field and we are only 36 hours out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 Why even bother looking at the GFS...I just don't know why I put myself through that...LOL looks to be MAJOR convective feedback issues, qpf inland is not great. on the other hand....12z RGEM is 4 closed contour low just south of PNS. and then it travels through south ga and northern fl with 4 closed contours at hour 48. It also has a band of 0-2c 850's when that moves through AL and GA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 12Z GFS finally starting to catch on. Had zero precip in WNC previous run and is now starting to show precip there. Will continue to show more as event nears. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneTracker Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 Looks like GFS might be having convective feedback issues....Either that, or qpf inland will stop over central GA and SC Yes, looks like convective feedback issues, since it has a bullseye of 5+ inches of QPF east of Savannah, GA and Charleston, SC out over the Atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 I don't think the GFS has a clue to be honest.....ITs going to miss this storm, IMO The convective feedback issues of this model continue to plague it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneTracker Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 I don't think the GFS has a clue to be honest.....ITs going to miss this storm, IMO The convective feedback issues of this model continue to plague it. It will be very interesting to see if the NAM can score a coup on this one. Euro struggling all week with this storm and GFS looking horrible as well. What a disaster for the state of numerical modeling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 nam has been insistent on cutting this thing off for the past 4 runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 DT says outside of nuisance ( my word not his) snow at the onset, this will be a heavy rain event. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_WX10 Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 By the looks of it I see it trending colder and colder. 850's have gotten drastically colder over time. Especially on the 12z gfs. I would think that my area would start out as snow then transition to freezing rain then maybe some plain rain at the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 Looks like the CMC has a small part of GA as snow with the 850 low moving by it's closed off well south of the NAM. CMC is a ton of rain for the SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 CMC is showing some small potential for snow on the NW side of the low. At 850 it's cold enough in parts of GA and then a small strip right over CLT. 2m temps aren't all that bad either. Still shows this could bust hard either way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 To show hos juicy this system could be the CMC has 3 inches just east of CLT in QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 Hmm... so the GFS probably starts I-85 and to the west as snow before changing over to freezing rain. Interesting. If convective feedback didn't trash the run, that could have been interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 Hmm... so the GFS probably starts I-85 and to the west as snow before changing over to freezing rain. Interesting. If convective feedback didn't trash the run, that could have been interesting. The GFS gives Greensboro 5 inches of snow on the meteogram generator! http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/bufkit/image_loader.phtml?site=kgso Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 Hmm... so the GFS probably starts I-85 and to the west as snow before changing over to freezing rain. Interesting. If convective feedback didn't trash the run, that could have been interesting. I agree with burger 12z is close to something. That will be interesting to see if it happens. I have my doubts. NEED that HP to slow down alot more and the precip to move in faster.. Comparing the surface from 12 and 0. The hp is a tad stronger and slightly west. But probably not enough to make a huge difference. Brief slop followed by a whole lot of rain. 12 0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 The GFS gives Greensboro 5 inches of snow on the meteogram generator! http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/bufkit/image_loader.phtml?site=kgso Both the Nam and GFS cooled by 1 full degree from their 6z to 12 z run today on the meteogram. They both also increased qpf by a whopping .50+ from their 6z to 12 z runs. Interesting trend Also there is strong consensus now that this system is gonna be loaded with qpf. 12z GFS is driest and it puts out .50+ at GSO while 12z CAN and NAM are 1.75+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 Time to start watching in real time. Surface 850 mb 500 mb's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 Is Canadian showing wintry precip at GSO? If so, howuch? If more than .25, then I believe nam, gfs, and can would all give GSO warning criteria between about midnight toe row night and mid/late morning Friday. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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