packfan98 Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 0z RGEM v/s 0z NAM at 48.... Edit: The look of the RGEM looks pretty good for something wintery. The RGEM at this range was warm with it's 2m temps for both the 2/11-12 event and for the event yesterday. Once it got within 24 hours it was better with the temps, but still a little warm. How bad are the 850's? I don't care if the surface is below freezing. I want to see a snow bomb! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 00z nam still gives GSO about .40 of mostly zr. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 closed at hour 42 over southern LA with the H5 low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 well this will be another weirdo run for the GFS....Just throwing it out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 well needless to say the 00z nam and 00z gfs are different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 If WNC gets the NAM precip and the GFS temps, then it will be a disaster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 0z GFS looks better than 18z, but it's still not going to do it. I'll add that it looked better at 500mb - not that much though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 If WNC gets the NAM precip and the GFS temps, then it will be a disaster.Ice disaster or cold rain disaster? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 WOW 00z runs, NAM put out 1.71qpf and GFS 0.00 qpf I don't understand how two American models or any models for that matter this close to the event be that far a part???? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 Ice disaster or cold rain disaster? Ice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 Ice disaster or cold rain disaster? Ice Well. I'm going to give it till 12z tomorrow. If trends dont improve by then. Time to kill it. Actually. If they were to be believed... gfs has folded to nam type solution with thermals. Early nam showing precip moving in with surface and 925mb temps below 32. That extends roughly 85 corridor in NC and 85/40 corridor into NC,SC, GA. But soundings show warming aloft, considering the time of day its coming into. Its rain pretty much for this system. A cold rain at that with mid 30s to 40. But I have lost interest with this system unless somehow the HP in the NE can last longer but with the flow .....? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 Well. I'm going to give it till 12z tomorrow. If trends dont improve by then. Time to kill it. Actually. If they were to be believed... gfs has folded to nam type solution with thermals. Early nam showing precip moving in with surface and 925mb temps below 32. That extends roughly 85 corridor in NC and 85/40 corridor into NC,SC, GA. But soundings show warming aloft, considering the time of day its coming into. Its rain pretty much for this system. A cold rain at that with mid 30s to 40. But I have lost interest with this system unless somehow the HP in the NE can last longer but with the flow .....? I guess you are speaking mainly for your area? Because here, the precip comes in around 3Z and is freezing rain until 12Z. By that time nearly .50 has fallen. This would be overnight Thursday into Friday so would be favored for freezing rain versus it coming in the afternoon. Also, dewpoints in that time frame are around 29 degrees. Edit: This is based on the 0Z NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 Man, the GGEM really destroys central NC. Tons and tons of precipitation. Too bad it's rain with 850s in the 1-2C range and surface temperatures in the mid-30s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 Man, the GGEM really destroys central NC. Tons and tons of precipitation. Too bad it's rain with 850s in the 1-2C range and surface temperatures in the mid-30s. Are you sure none of that is sleet? Is there wedging going on then? Edit: Wow, NYC gets down to 10 F on Thursday morning on the 0Z GFS thanks to the much stronger high! Just a few runs back, they were progged to go down to only 30!! That is just a sample of the cold air that will fed into the CAD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 I guess you are speaking mainly for your area? Because here, the precip comes in around 3Z and is freezing rain until 12Z. By that time nearly .50 has fallen. This would be overnight Thursday into Friday so would be favored for freezing rain versus it coming in the afternoon. Also, dewpoints in that time frame are around 29 degrees. Edit: This is based on the 0Z NAM Yes and No. You may get some... but very limited. With out a cold source its not going to happen. Technically the lower soundings support ZR maybe at first and here aswell. But zr is a self limiting process and appears to be with out a cold source thats ots. You can check soundings around your area... Sure there about the same here 28-32 range. But there is a strong east wind with WAA to follow aloft in the 2-8k foot range. Soundings continue to indicate temps 40-45 around here and into the triad aloft. There will not be much freezing rain with temps that warm aloft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 Yes and No. You may get some... but very limited. With out a cold source its not going to happen. Technically the lower soundings support ZR maybe at first and here aswell. But zr is a self limiting process and that appears with out a cold source thats ots. You can check soundings around your area... Sure there about the same here 28-32 range. But there is a strong east wind with WAA to follow aloft in the 2-8k foot range. Soundings continue to indicate temps 40-45 around here and into the triad aloft. There will not be much freezing rain with temps that warm aloft. I suppose we can kindly disagree. If the temp is below 32 at the surface then the rain will freeze on contact regardless of temps aloft. That's independent of what happens at the surface. Now sure, there shouldn't be any accumulation on the roads but definitely on the elevated surfaces and trees, if this past run of NAM is correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 I suppose we can kindly disagree. If the temp is below 32 at the surface then the rain will freeze on contact regardless of temps aloft. That's independent of what happens at the surface. Now sure, there shouldn't be any accumulation on the roads but definitely on the elevated surfaces and trees, if this past run of NAM is correct. It's more complicated than that. A 35º raindrop freezing will release more heat into the atmosphere than one that falls at 33º. At a 30 to 31º surface temperature the process is indeed self limiting, unless there is a constant resupply of cold air. That cold air resupply is currently not expected to occur. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 Are you sure none of that is sleet? Is there wedging going on then? Edit: Wow, NYC gets down to 10 F on Thursday morning on the 0Z GFS thanks to the much stronger high! Just a few runs back, they were progged to go down to only 30!! That is just a sample of the cold air that will fed into the CAD. Larry, any early thoughts on the doc? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 EURO 1040mb high building in...CAD showing up nicely by 6z thur. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 EURO 1040mb high building in...CAD showing up nicely by 6z thur. Much wetter for us it appears during CAD. Hmmm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 Larry, the euro is sooooo close, temps in mid 30's ish at 2m, ULL strengthening over S GA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 Looks to me like the NAMs precip (not as generous of course) and the GFS temps (after warm bias). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 If the euro busts as much as it is doing here tonight, could be a mess in north carolina..maybe even down into the upstate. It has my location well above freezing tonight while currently I have freezing rain and 31.4. I don't think there is going to be anything here but a cold rain but I would have to believe there would be freezing temps over north carolina at least where it has temps at or just barely above freezing (through friday morning) and plenty of precip. It has 1.00 to 1.5 inches overall but best bets are that about half of that is freezing rain as it probably warms up monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 Verbatim, the Euro has a pretty bad ice storm for N NC prior to warming up a little above freezing. It's too bad all that banding is not snow, though... Such a nice track. The clown is being particularly generous tonight with the maximum 9.5" centered right over MBY. I'm pretty sure none of it is snow, but I suppose some could be IP rather than ZR. I guess if you take into account the Euro's warm bias, it could be worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 Whats the surface HP like faster or slower? Its past my bed time and don't loggin on to check. But the key factor is has the HP slowed down. I know the 12z was pushing close to a thousand miles in like 24 hour period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 If the euro busts as much as it is doing here tonight, could be a mess in north carolina..maybe even down into the upstate. It has my location well above freezing tonight while currently I have freezing rain and 31.4. I don't think there is going to be anything here but a cold rain but I would have to believe there would be freezing temps over north carolina at least where it has temps at or just barely above freezing (through friday morning) and plenty of precip. It has 1.00 to 1.5 inches overall but best bets are that about half of that is freezing rain as it probably warms up monday. Lookout, There is the potential of a 4-5 degree too warm bust as that 2/9 run did at ATL for 2/12 . We'll see. This is so close to the first major ZR for the CAD regions in March since 3/25/71! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SD1 Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 Hazardous Weather OutlookHAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATEDNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 412 PM EST TUE MAR 4 2014 NCZ007>011-021>027-038>041-073>076-083-052115- PERSON-GRANVILLE-VANCE-WARREN-HALIFAX-FORSYTH-GUILFORD-ALAMANCE- ORANGE-DURHAM-FRANKLIN-NASH-DAVIDSON-RANDOLPH-CHATHAM-WAKE-STANLY- MONTGOMERY-MOORE-LEE-ANSON- 412 PM EST TUE MAR 4 2014 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT. HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP IN THE GULF OF MEXICO EARLY IN THE DAY THURSDAY...THEN TRACK NORTHEAST ALONG OR OFFSHORE THE CAROLINA COAST LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. A PERIOD OF WINTER WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM...PRIMARILY IN THE TRIAD AND NORTHWEST PIEDMONT. ABOVE AVERAGE UNCERTAINTY PERSISTS WITH REGARD TO THIS SYSTEM. RESIDENTS OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA ARE ENCOURAGED TO PAY CLOSE ATTENTION TO THE FORECAST AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 Amazing that now the NAM is closing off but there is just no cold air to work with. For me this one is pretty much cooked but the Euro was intriguing. If you could get the Euro temps with the NAM energy we would be in business. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 Wow, the 6Z GFS verbatim is very close to ZR for KATL and KAHN with 33 now for the coldest Thursday night! Even MCN and ATS get down to 35 per that run. CAE gets to 34. RDU gets some IP tomorrow night per this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 Greenville,SC gets down to 31.5 on the GFS at 1am Friday morning during the heaviest precip. It is also very close to a snow sounding as all levels are below freezing except it’s 1.5C at 850mb. I just don’t know what to think with this system. It’s hard to believe we won’t get freezing rain with one of the strongest CAD set ups I have ever seen on Thursday. It’s a shame that precip is not moving in earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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