FLweather Posted March 4, 2014 Share Posted March 4, 2014 That run doesn't make any sense. Doesn't close off the ULL so Dallas east into LA get the ULL snows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted March 4, 2014 Share Posted March 4, 2014 I don't believe the nam, but I think the further south solution is more than likely correct. With that being said at hour 60 its about to tilt back on itself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted March 4, 2014 Share Posted March 4, 2014 Down goes the NAM. It folds to the Euro/GFS solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted March 4, 2014 Share Posted March 4, 2014 I don't believe the nam, but I think the further south solution is more than likely correct. With that being said at hour 60 its about to tilt back on itself. Yeah its pretty dry for GA,SC,NC up to that point. Precip develops ahead then lifts into GA,SC,NC,VA Over all looks east and south from the 12z and rainy. Maybe some zr down to SC line along 40/85.. mainly GSO west by the 925 temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted March 4, 2014 Share Posted March 4, 2014 Larry, wasn't there a pretty substantial warm bias with the modeled temperatures with the CAD event on February 11-13? I think you may have posted about it in another thread (might have been in this one idk.) IIRC, the models were a couple degrees too warm at the surface compared to what actually occurred. I'm not saying this is the same situation, but if all we are is 3-5 degrees away from ZR I think that's well within the range of error. Let me know if I'm anywhere close to correct lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted March 4, 2014 Share Posted March 4, 2014 Down goes the NAM. It folds to the Euro/GFS solution. IMHO the southern solution, whether its closed or not, seems like the likely solution. I still think yall get some wintry up that way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted March 4, 2014 Share Posted March 4, 2014 I will say that Euro was about 4 degrees to warm today, GFS mos was like 3 degrees to warm, and NAM was about right on.. (GFS mos and NAM mos that is) around here today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted March 4, 2014 Share Posted March 4, 2014 Larry, wasn't there a pretty substantial warm bias with the modeled temperatures with the CAD event on February 11-13? I think you may have posted about it in another thread (might have been in this one idk.) IIRC, the models were a couple degrees too warm at the surface compared to what actually occurred. I'm not saying this is the same situation, but if all we are is 3-5 degrees away from ZR I think that's well within the range of error. Let me know if I'm anywhere close to correct lol On that Euro run Lookout and I analyzed, it had the ATL area's coldest at 32. The actual coldest was 28. So, on that run (about 3 days before the storm), the coldest was 4 too warm. Now, on some later runs, especially right before the storm, the Euro was very close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted March 4, 2014 Share Posted March 4, 2014 IMHO the southern solution, whether its closed or not, seems like the likely solution. I still think yall get some wintry up that way I won't hold my breath. Without a really strong ULL I just don't see my neck of the woods getting anything of significance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted March 4, 2014 Share Posted March 4, 2014 On that Euro run Lookout and I analyzed, it had the ATL area's coldest at 32. The actual coldest was 28. So, on that run (about 3 days before the storm(, the coldest was 4 too warm. Now, on some later runs, especially right before the storm, the Euro was very close. Gotcha. Thanks for the response and all your research in general! It's appreciated! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted March 4, 2014 Share Posted March 4, 2014 Its going to be very close Burger. I know its the south, and that means HUGE bust potential, but this one is the highest of them all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Southern Track Posted March 4, 2014 Share Posted March 4, 2014 I think there will still be wild swings until the 12z runs tomorrow. Until then, I won't stick a fork in it just yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted March 4, 2014 Share Posted March 4, 2014 NAM definitly colder at the surface. Now has dew point temp for RDU right at 30 degrees with over .25 liquid falling(at hour 63). Actual surface temps will probably be right around freezing so this would be real close. After that it looks like a 33 and rain situation. Still some time to trend better. http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=NAM&grid=221&model_yyyy=2014&model_mm=03&model_dd=04&model_init_hh=18&fhour=63¶meter=DPTF&level=2&unit=M_ABOVE_GROUND&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted March 4, 2014 Share Posted March 4, 2014 RAH doesn't sound too impressed. SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... -- Changed Discussion -- AS OF 205 PM TUESDAY......WINTRY PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL STILL LOOKS CONFINED TO THE BLUERIDGE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY... WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF ACCUMULATINGSNOW INTO OUR NW PIEDMONT TRIAD. OTHERWISE... RAIN IS EXPECTED ATTHE CURRENT TIME. FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW GIVEN THE MODELSPREAD. EVEN THOUGH MOSTLY RAIN IS CURRENTLY FAVORED... THE EXTENTOF THE COLD AIR IN PLACE OVER THE REGION COURTESY OF THE CURRENT ANDPROJECTED HIGH TO OUR NORTH SUPPLYING THE COLD AIR IS PROBLEMATIC.IF MODELS TREND COLDER... WHICH IS A POSSIBILITY GIVEN THE CURRENTSET UP... MORE IN THE WAY OF SNOW COULD BE EXPECTED INTO THEPIEDMONT. STAY INFORMED WITH THE LATEST FORECASTS.A POTENT MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SHOULD BE MOVING EASTWARDACROSS ARKANSAS/SOUTHERN MISSOURI BY 12Z/THURSDAY. AS THIS MID/UPPERLEVEL SYSTEM CONTINUES PUSHING EAST ACROSS PORTIONS OF MS/AL/TN...MODELS INDICATE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP IN THECENTRAL/EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. HOWEVER... MODEL SPREAD CONTINUES TOBE HIGH... EVEN WITHIN THE ENSEMBLE MEANS. THIS APPEARS TO BERELATED TO THE DIFFERENCES IN HOW THE MODELS ARE HANDLING THEFEATURES ALOFT. AS THE MID/UPPER LOW APPROACHES OUR REGION... MODELSPREAD CONTINUES HIGH. THE 12Z NAM APPEARS ALONE IN DEEPENING THECLOSED MID LEVEL CIRCULATION OVER NORTHERN GA AND SOUTHWESTERN NC...WHILE THE GFS IS CONSIDERABLY SLOWER AND TRACKS THE MID LEVEL LOWMUCH FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS GA AND SOUTHERN SC. FOR THE COASTAL LOWPRESSURE... THE 00Z/EUROPEAN OPERATIONAL MODEL WAS ON THE SLOW ANDWEST SIDE OF THE EC ENSEMBLE MEAN... SUGGESTING THIS MODEL IS TOOSLOW WITH THE TRACK OF THE LOW. SINCE THERE IS A LARGE SPREAD WITHTHE GUIDANCE WITH THE STRENGTH/TRACK/TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM... WE WILLCONTINUE TO HAVE A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST UNTIL THIS CHANGES.ANOTHER EXTREMELY IMPORTANT PLAYER FOR WINTER WEATHER WILL BESTRENGTH AND LOCATION OF ANOTHER VERY COLD ARCTIC PARENT SURFACEHIGH PRESSURE BEFORE AND DURING THIS EVENT. AS IT APPEARS NOW... THEHIGH PRESSURE WILL BE PLENTY STRONG ENOUGH (1030+ MB) AND IN AFAVORABLE LOCATION (NEW ENGLAND) TO DELIVER COLD AIR INTO OURDAMMING REGION INTO THURSDAY. HOWEVER... MOST MODELS HAVE THE HIGHPROGRESSIVELY SHIFTING EAST WITH DIMINISHING CAA INTO OUR DAMMINGREGION LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY (DURING A GOOD PORTION OF THEEXPECTED PRECIPITATION EVENT). IF THIS VERIFIES... WE WOULD HAVE TORELY ON THE MID/UPPER LOW TO SUPPLY ENOUGH OF ITS OWN COLD AIR TOSUPPORT FROZEN PRECIPITATION.THE BOTTOM LINE FOR RIGHT NOW... IT APPEARS THAT THERE MAY BE SOMEWET SNOW MIXED IN WITH RAIN THURSDAY OVER THE NW PIEDMONT.HOWEVER... DUE TO THE BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS LIKELY BEING MARGINAL INTHE UPPER 30S AT ONSET... MOSTLY RAIN IS EXPECTED. EVAPORATIVECOOLING COULD CHANGE THE PRECIPITATION TO WET SNOW AT TIMES THURSDAYLATE INTO THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE NW... BUT SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULDREMAIN MARGINAL IN SUPPORTING SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS. SURFACE WETBULB FORECASTS NEAR 32 ARE INDICATED THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENINGOVER PORTIONS OF THE NW PIEDMONT AS FAR SOUTH AND EAST AS POSSIBLYDAVIDSON/RANDOLPH/ORANGE/GRANVILLE COUNTIES ON THE CURRENT COLDERMODEL SOLUTIONS (EC/NAM)... WITH READINGS ABOVE FREEZING ELSEWHERE.THEREFORE... PREDOMINATELY RAIN IS EXPECTED SOUTH AND EAST OFGREENSBORO AND ROXBORO.THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS THE MID/UPPER LOW APPROACHES... THEDEEPENING COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SHOULD TRACK JUST OFFSHORE THE SC/NCCOAST FRIDAY. ANY FROZEN PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE DEPENDENT ON THEMID/UPPER LOW TRACK AND STRENGTH AT THAT TIME. CURRENT MODEL BLENDSSUGGEST THAT THE ENOUGH ATLANTIC AIR WILL BE PULLED INTO THE STORMTO ENHANCE A WARM NOSE ALOFT... ESPECIALLY OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERNNC.THIS STRONGLY FAVORS THE BLUE RIDGE AND POSSIBLY THE FOOTHILLS...WITH LIMITED CHANCES IN THE PIEDMONT OF ACCUMULATING SNOW THURSDAYNIGHT INTO FRIDAY.IT IS INTERESTING TO NOTE THE THE LATEST 12Z/OPERATIONAL EC KEEPS CADINTO OUR PIEDMONT DAMMING REGION ESSENTIALLY THROUGH THE EVENT...WITH A SLOWER SURFACE LOW TRACKING OFFSHORE OF THE SC COAST FRIDAY.THE SIGNIFICANT PRECIPIATION REMAINS JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF THEPIEDMONT TRIAD REGION WITH THIS PARTICULAR MODEL SOLUTION... WITHSOME WET SNOW THREAT DEEPER INTO OUR PIEDMONT DAMMING REGION.HOWEVER... CONFIDENCE IN ANY ONE MODEL SOLUTION IS VERY LOW GIVENTHE LATEST SPREAD IN THE 12Z MODELS.MOST LIKELY SENSIBLE WEATHER... RAIN GRADUALLY SPREADING/DEVELOPINGNORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY AFTERNOON... POSSIBLY HOLDINGOFF UNTIL LATE DAY IF THE SLOWER SOLUTIONS VERIFY. RAIN POSSIBLYMIXED WITH LIGHT SNOW IN THE FAR NW PIEDMONT. LITTLE IF ANY SNOWACCUMULATION EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. HIGHS UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S NWTO SE. PERIODS OF RAIN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. RAIN MAY BE MIXEDWITH WET SNOW IN THE FAR NW. LOWS 33-42 NW TO SE. HIGHS FRIDAY 40SNW AND 50S EAST. -- End Changed Discussion -- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted March 4, 2014 Share Posted March 4, 2014 We really need that high pressure to trend slower so there is a cold air source. Im not going to deny... that band of precip on the 18z nam is nice looking. Hopefully something like that will come to fruition but with a cold air source. Right now the 18z nam would be a good sloppy rainstorm in the upper 30s to near 40. With a couple layers on the soundings near the 42-44 range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNC_Fort Posted March 4, 2014 Share Posted March 4, 2014 It looked like it completely dried up here in WNC. We all need different trends it sounds like Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_WX10 Posted March 4, 2014 Share Posted March 4, 2014 The 18z nam still gives western and central nc some precipitous right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted March 4, 2014 Share Posted March 4, 2014 If you take the NAM verbatim, it's a pretty bad ice storm here before going over to cold rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted March 4, 2014 Share Posted March 4, 2014 The 18z nam still gives western and central nc some precipitous right? It does. Surface temps and 925mb temps suggest freezing rain. But with the warmth aloft and with out a cold source of air would imply mid 30s to upper 30s with heavy rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 4, 2014 Share Posted March 4, 2014 The 18z nam still gives western and central nc some precipitous right? http://68.226.77.253/text/MESOSFC/NAM_krdu.txt http://68.226.77.253/text/MESOSFC/NAM_kgso.txt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Justin1110GA Posted March 4, 2014 Share Posted March 4, 2014 Its going to be very close Burger. I know its the south, and that means HUGE bust potential, but this one is the highest of them all.So our area is kind of back in this?Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted March 4, 2014 Share Posted March 4, 2014 I would say no Justin...I really just don't see it for us....However, its within a couple of degress of a nice surprise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted March 4, 2014 Share Posted March 4, 2014 18z GFS looks like its going to close it off at H5 at hr 54 Its closed at 500mb, but the qpf looks horribly wrong. with that look there should be more qpf over the SE IMO GFS reallllly struggling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormsfury Posted March 4, 2014 Share Posted March 4, 2014 this whole setup has high bust potential on it in either direction. I'm running 5 degrees colder than progged. Kchs is at 39 as of 4 pm. Came into work at 35 both on ladson and college park rd. The skies here just have that right look for a winter storm. No basis, rhyme, or reason to it. It sorta feels just right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 4, 2014 Share Posted March 4, 2014 18z GFS looks like its going to close it off at H5 at hr 54 Its closed at 500mb, but the qpf looks horribly wrong. with that look there should be more qpf over the SE IMO GFS reallllly struggling. GFS did this with the 2/11-12 event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted March 4, 2014 Share Posted March 4, 2014 Cobb data for 18z nam give GSO .73 zr. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted March 4, 2014 Share Posted March 4, 2014 I would say no Justin...I really just don't see it for us....However, its within a couple of degress of a nice surprise. would you say asheville area would be all snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_WX10 Posted March 4, 2014 Share Posted March 4, 2014 Wouldn't the ull create the cld air aloft which would mean possibly more snow then freezing rain which the current modeling is showing for us in the northern and northwest peidmont? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted March 4, 2014 Share Posted March 4, 2014 GFS did this with the 2/11-12 event. Yeah, if I remember right its's h5 depiction was pretty good, but its QPF and surface output were horrendous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted March 4, 2014 Share Posted March 4, 2014 Most of the time it's rain or snow in March not freezing rain? That is in most cases.... But it seems like the NAM is all ZR for the wintry part of the system. I'm not sure much qpf will get this far north and west yet so I probably shouldn't even worry about precip type! lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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