GaWx Posted March 4, 2014 Share Posted March 4, 2014 I would say its VERY close to really being a HUGE hit for many across the SE Larry....Its really fun to be even tracking something like this in MArch, as you said..Doc is up to the plate now. 12Z Euro at 24: slightly stronger high still Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted March 4, 2014 Share Posted March 4, 2014 Open at 500mb at hr 48, but neutral tilt near BTR/Nola. might be a good one edit....about to close off at hr54 it seems...CAD signature is very strong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted March 4, 2014 Share Posted March 4, 2014 Open at 500mb at hr 48, but neutral tilt near BTR/Nola. might be a good one Stronger CAD for sure with sfc pressures in SE 3 mb stronger. But will it be wet enough? Low is hanging back west some and it is drier over se so far but MCN very close to ZR! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted March 4, 2014 Share Posted March 4, 2014 The Euro is definitely coming in colder through hr 48. The damming signature is more evident. Nice..... Looks like approximately 3-5 degrees colder at the surface so far. The storm is further south, though. No moisture north of central GA so far. We're going to need some moisture sometime, though...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 4, 2014 Share Posted March 4, 2014 Crappy run of the Euro, the HP is sliding out quicker, the ULL is not as strong and more positively tilted. Give it one more day I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted March 4, 2014 Share Posted March 4, 2014 Stronger CAD for sure with sfc pressures in SE 3 mb stronger. But will it be wet enough? Low is hanging back west some and it is drier over se so far but MCN very close to ZR! Finally closed at hour 72 over SGA with a VERY slow moving *deform band*?? across N and CGA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 4, 2014 Share Posted March 4, 2014 That was definitely the worst Euro run for this system, that's putting one nail in the coffin bad. Only good news is we don't get soaking 1-2" of rain, though SC/GA does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted March 4, 2014 Share Posted March 4, 2014 850's are like 2-3c with that band so all rain with 2m temps 35-40. That would be a heavy rain deform band. Now if it closed off we be in biz......Models still all over the place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted March 4, 2014 Share Posted March 4, 2014 Sound slike the Euro comes in colder but no precip for central. That figures. I'd rather have dry than cold rain, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted March 4, 2014 Share Posted March 4, 2014 Verbatim, it looks like the Triad gets some light freezing rain, but this run pretty much has nothing wintry anywhere else. Meh. Everyone from ATL to CAE and to the south and east gets a torrential rainstorm with little precip north of there. I'm not enthused about this run. ---------------- BTW, the 12z GEFS mean looks like another modest improvement, FWIW. ---------------- There was a lot of comments like this 48-60 hours out.. "12z GFS nowhere even close outside of the mountains verbatim on temps" "NAM looks solidly like a lousy rain event." Euro: "Nothing. 850 0c line dances north of the precip majority of run. 0c line at 66hrs is from CLT to RDU but that is after the precip has fallen, moves out. Not a lot of snow for anyone this run" Ah, thanks. I hadn't really been following that one at the time. It had torched all December and January and winter was hardly on my mind, haha. Then all of a sudden there was a Winter Storm Watch posted the day before! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted March 4, 2014 Share Posted March 4, 2014 Verbatim, it looks like the Triad gets some light freezing rain, but this run pretty much has nothing wintry anywhere else. Meh. Everyone from ATL to CAE and to the south and east gets a torrential rainstorm with little precip north of there. I'm not enthused about this run. It is different for sure. Before we had the precip, and not the temps. Now we don't even have the precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 4, 2014 Share Posted March 4, 2014 Verbatim, it looks like the Triad gets some light freezing rain, but this run pretty much has nothing wintry anywhere else. Meh. Everyone from ATL to CAE and to the south and east gets a torrential rainstorm with little precip north of there. I'm not enthused about this run. Just have to laugh, thank goodness we are ending winter instead of if in the middle of it and watching this fall apart. The 0z Euro had over 1-1.25" QPF in the mountains and this run has none. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted March 4, 2014 Share Posted March 4, 2014 It is different for sure. Before we had the precip, and not the temps. Now we don't even have the precip. The 12z euro was right at .75 total qpf for the RDU area. That's still a decent amount of moisture but no cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted March 4, 2014 Share Posted March 4, 2014 The 12z euro was right at .75 total qpf for the RDU area. That's still a decent amount of moisture but no cold. Yeah, you're right. Looks like RDU gets in on the edge after I had disgustingly exited out of the model run, LOL. Don't worry, Brick. You get a nice rainfall in the mid to upper 30s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted March 4, 2014 Share Posted March 4, 2014 Yeah, you're right. Looks like RDU gets in on the edge after I had disgustingly exited out of the model run, LOL. Oh well. Still a matter of not being cold enough. I guess that is better than not having the precip. If it keeps coming in colder it will be good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WSNC Posted March 4, 2014 Share Posted March 4, 2014 At least there's still a strong ULL heading through the southeast, just a little further south on this run. Cold high pressure to the north is still there. This could easily go either way. Typical for us in the SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pilotwx Posted March 4, 2014 Share Posted March 4, 2014 Look I'm ready for spring! But I will bet that a different solution is coming tomorrow all the models all year have had trouble when there is a system out front of the system that is going to effect us . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted March 4, 2014 Share Posted March 4, 2014 850's are like 2-3c with that band so all rain with 2m temps 35-40. That would be a heavy rain deform band. Now if it closed off we be in biz......Models still all over the place. The 12Z Ukmet looks quite interesting in terms of both the impressive CAD and the upper low. This is by no means finished yet. CAD related IP/ZR are still quite possible in or near our areas depending on how this evolves. Although I have no precip. maps past 48 hours, the 90% 850 RH maps imply that precip. may be more plentiful further north in GA vs. the 12Z Euro. Also, as it is now, 850's get to down to below +2C near the upper low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 4, 2014 Share Posted March 4, 2014 The 12Z Ukmet looks quite interesting in terms of both the impressive CAD and the upper low. This is by no means finished yet. CAD related IP/ZR are still quite possible in or near our areas depending on how this evolves. Although I have no precip. maps past 48 hours, the 90% 850 RH maps imply that precip. may be more plentiful further north in GA vs. the 12Z Euro. Also, as it is now, 850's get to down to below +2C near the upper low. http://meteocentre.com/models/models.php?lang=en&map=na&run=12&mod=ukmet This link will give you 2mT and precip for the UKIE out to 72 among other things FWIW... dunno if you had seen this before Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted March 4, 2014 Share Posted March 4, 2014 Ty yoda. Ya Larry, they get to There lowest of like 1-2c. Is very very close to heavy wet snow at like 35 degrees at 2m via euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HWY316wx Posted March 4, 2014 Share Posted March 4, 2014 Larry and Delta, is it just me or has the trend went the way of more of a winter solution. I know it's still in liquid form, but when I step back and look at the trend... I have to say its went colder. Am I wrong in that thinking? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted March 4, 2014 Share Posted March 4, 2014 http://meteocentre.com/models/models.php?lang=en&map=na&run=12&mod=ukmet This link will give you 2mT and precip for the UKIE out to 72 among other things FWIW... dunno if you had seen this before Thanks, Yoda, for that link. I'm going to look at it shortly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted March 4, 2014 Share Posted March 4, 2014 Larry and Delta, is it just me or has the trend went the way of more of a winter solution. I know it's still in liquid form, but when I step back and look at the trend... I have to say its went colder. Am I wrong in that thinking? HWY, No, you're not wrong at all for N and C GA at least. Since yesterday the trend has reversed back toward more wintry again. It looks like a very close call at least assuming decent precip. I certainly haven't given up on this at all. I know that for places like ATL, AHN,, and MCN, I'm seeing runs with mid 30's and rain verbatim (and these may be too warm due to warm bias at two meters in these situations) vs. runs early yesterday having no better than 40's and rain. Ex: 12Z GFS has KATL getting 0.78" 3/6-7 with 850's of only +4 to +6 (dangerously close to typical ZR territory when there is solid wedging) and lowest temp. of 35 verbatim, which may very well be too warm due to bias. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted March 4, 2014 Share Posted March 4, 2014 Since this energy really just came on shore early this morning I wonder if its been properly sampled for the 6z and 12z runs? I guessing not. FWIW... Its the RAP but it has the sw energy further south and west over AZ So I guessing more weird runs with the 18z suit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted March 4, 2014 Share Posted March 4, 2014 I might not be looking at this correctly, but it seems like the only real hope here is for the ULL to pull a rabbit out of the hat and turn into the beast that the Euro showed a few runs ago, giving heavy, wet snow to those NW of its track. As far as the CAD goes, it seems like it would have to really be majorly misrepresented at this point in order for it to support wintry precip deep into GA. The way it looks now, it would be marginal even for the CAD areas of NC. Can H5 in Canada be off by that much this close to the event? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted March 4, 2014 Share Posted March 4, 2014 I might not be looking at this correctly, but it seems like the only real hope here is for the ULL to pull a rabbit out of the hat and turn into the beast that the Euro showed a few runs ago, giving heavy, wet snow to those NW of its track. As far as the CAD goes, it seems like it would have to really be majorly misrepresented at this point in order for it to support wintry precip deep into GA. The way it looks now, it would be marginal even for the CAD areas of NC. Can H5 in Canada be off by that much this close to the event? Now that you mention the H5 in Canada. Took a second look at the RAP. Believe it not and not sure how it will help or hurt atm... The h5 ULL over western canada slightly west of the EURO,GFS,NAM,CMC allowing better ridging between the too in Canada. Alot more ridging than what the NAM,GFS show for the same time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted March 4, 2014 Share Posted March 4, 2014 Not weird at all. Trends have been in right direction today, but how much further does it go? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted March 4, 2014 Share Posted March 4, 2014 I might not be looking at this correctly, but it seems like the only real hope here is for the ULL to pull a rabbit out of the hat and turn into the beast that the Euro showed a few runs ago, giving heavy, wet snow to those NW of its track. As far as the CAD goes, it seems like it would have to really be majorly misrepresented at this point in order for it to support wintry precip deep into GA. The way it looks now, it would be marginal even for the CAD areas of NC. Can H5 in Canada be off by that much this close to the event? CR, I don't think you're looking at it correctly as far as pretty much giving up on this for GA. I'm not saying there will be a winter storm. However, I am saying there MAY be one. Verbatim, the 12Z GFS has 35 for the coldest with 0.78" of rainfall for 3/6-7 at KATL. Also, progged 850's are in the +4 to +6 C range, which is near values most commonly associated with ZR in the area when wedging is strong. 925's are as cold as 0C to 1C and 5 C colder than the 850's, a nice wedge. Also, if the CAD strong enough, the GA CAD areas are often nearly as cold as the NC/SC areas. Also, the CAD continues to trend colder run after run. Bottom line: it is already a very close call in GA verbatim (only misses ZR by 3) and that's not even taking into account a warm bias at two meters. There's a 1040 mb high now being progged. There's still plenty of opportunity for sig. ZR/IP in GA. the key now may be just getting the sig. precip. here. By the way, in RDU the 12Z GFS appears to have IP to at least start Thursday. Did you realize that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 4, 2014 Share Posted March 4, 2014 I might not be looking at this correctly, but it seems like the only real hope here is for the ULL to pull a rabbit out of the hat and turn into the beast that the Euro showed a few runs ago, giving heavy, wet snow to those NW of its track. As far as the CAD goes, it seems like it would have to really be majorly misrepresented at this point in order for it to support wintry precip deep into GA. The way it looks now, it would be marginal even for the CAD areas of NC. Can H5 in Canada be off by that much this close to the event? Pretty much, the but the 12z Euro and it's just released ENS is more progressive and weaker with the ULL. The 2m line was actually further south into NC on the ENS mean, had it running down 85/40 through NC, maybe a little south of that, but the SLP is way east, it's now the further east model, more than the UK/CMC/GFS/NAM/JMA, which is surprising for the Euro, but it's the best model inside 3 days hands down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted March 4, 2014 Share Posted March 4, 2014 18z nam is alot further west/south with S/w at 36 compare to 42 at 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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