3/6 - 3/7 Event is it this seasons last gasp?

[packbacker]

The ULL on the CMC never really get's going and remains open, if it closed off would have been much better run, the HP was definitely better a little stronger and hung around longer. Arrghh, all this means is another day of model watching, unless the Euro slams the door shut.

[superjames1992]

Yeah, I'm getting 31 degrees at the surface at hr 66 with a ton of precip at GSO on the 12z Canadian.  Looks potentially fun.  Definitely a little colder than last night.  Looks like 33 for CLT, 35 for RDU.  850s are either at freezing or slightly above.  Not sure about thicknesses as the maps don't have them that I'm looking at.  Precip is certainly not as prolific as the last run, as noted, with the weaker ULL.

[mackerel_sky]

Yeah, I'm getting 31 degrees at the surface at hr 66 with a ton of precip at GSO on the 12z Canadian. Looks fun. Definitely a little colder than last night. Looks like 33 for CLT, 35 for RDU. 850s are either at freezing or slightly above. Not sure about thicknesses as the maps don't have them that I'm looking at. Precip is certainly not as prolific as the last run, as noted.

GSP temps, please?

[burgertime]

Yeah, I'm getting 31 degrees at the surface at hr 66 with a ton of precip at GSO on the 12z Canadian.  Looks fun.  Definitely a little colder than last night.  Looks like 33 for CLT, 35 for RDU.  850s are either at freezing or slightly above.  Not sure about thicknesses as the maps don't have them that I'm looking at.  Precip is certainly not as prolific as the last run, as noted, with the weaker ULL.

 

My guess would be verbatim it would be a lot of sleet for you. Thickness isn't quite there but we can iron that out later. 

[packbacker]

Look at the CAD signature of the CMC at 12z Friday, impressive, not sure why it's not better in NC though…the ULL is over MYR at this point.  The SLP track is textbook for central NC too.

[rduwx]

CMC has 1.5 total qpf for the RDU area.  That's a lot of 35 degree rain.

[Brick Tamland]

CMC has 1.5 total qpf for the RDU area.  That's a lot of 35 degree rain.

 

That would suck to have that much precip and be so close to having snow.

[packbacker]

Even the NAVGEM which never handles CAD well has the freezing line well into central NC...

 

 

[Brick Tamland]

Even the NAVGEM which never handles CAD well has the freezing line well into central NC...

 

 

 

 

Sounds like this could go either way.

[packbacker]

Sounds like this could go either way.

 

Which sucks, I am ready to punt or go all in and we can't, still 2-3 days away, and it's teetering right now.

[Cold Rain]

The track on the CMC and Navgem is impressive. It's unfortunate that our cold air source is booking out.

[packbacker]

The track on the CMC and Navgem is impressive. It's unfortunate that our cold air source is booking out.

 

Yep, but not surprising for us 

 

You shift the HP just 50 miles west I think that's all it would take, on the CMC.

[packfan98]

Looks like another day of model watching is in order. Significant trends with the strength of the high and placement. I think the models will play catchup with the surface temps over the next 24 hours. It's obvious that the ull is a huge wildcard. Many times it will continue to gain strength on the models in the days leading up to an event. If it becomes strong enough to crash the 850s someone will get pasted.

Who will that be, and how widespread?

Tune in at 1:00 for "As the Euro turns!"

[Brick Tamland]

Which sucks, I am ready to punt or go all in and we can't, still 2-3 days away, and it's teetering right now.

 

Yes, it would be nice to know since it's really only 2 days out. Not sure to be excited or brace yourself for a miserable rain.

[Cold Rain]

Yep, but not surprising for us 

 

You shift the HP just 50 miles west I think that's all it would take, on the CMC.

Well, I guess that's doable in 2-3 days time. It shifted much more than that in a 24 hour period. I still feel like it would take a lot to get a snowstorm for our area, though. These marginal, on the line, situations don't work out well for us in January, so it's going to be all the more difficult in March.

[CaryWx]

Lets see what Dr No has to say.

[superjames1992]

Out of curiosity, what was the setup for the 1/17/2013 ULL? I didn't really start following that one until the day before. I know it busted in a lot of places as temperatures were as marginal as possible, but it did work out here. I recall a torch prior to the storm and the day after the storm was fairly warm, too. Plus, all 3-5" in the area fell in 33-34 degree surface temperatures. We also saw torrential rains for the day prior to the storm, kind of like with March 2009.

[deltadog03]

CMC still looks MEH for most as well.  Looks warm for everyone outside of W and maybe WC NC

[BIG FROSTY]

12z CMC looks good from about Greensboro to maybe as far west as the foothills leaves mountains mostly dry!

[GaWx]

CMC still looks MEH for most as well.  Looks warm for everyone outside of W and maybe WC NC

 

 For GA, the hope would be that the low would keep adjusting further and further west and not have any low off the SE coast. If so, the CAD part of the precip. could become plentiful again and the CAD, itself, would extend more impressively down into GA. A low along the SE coast tends to cut into how deep the very impressive CAD gets. The trends are still good albeit slow. For sure the high/CAD has gotten much better vs. 24 hour ago.

[deltadog03]

 For GA, the hope would be that the low would keep adjusting further and further west and not have any low off the SE coast. If so, the CAD part of the precip. could become plentiful again and the CAD, itself, would extend more impressively down into GA. A low along the SE coast tends to cut into how deep the very impressive CAD gets. The trends are still good albeit slow. Fpr sure the high/CAD has gotten much better vs. 24 hour ago.

I agree the trends are there, but we are quickly running out of time.  EURO really needs to develop further west today or its game set match for us.  IMO

[franklin NCwx]

Qpf is lacking as usual for western nc on the cmc. Maybe snow showers.

[FLweather]

Looks like another day of model watching is in order. Significant trends with the strength of the high and placement. I think the models will play catchup with the surface temps over the next 24 hours. It's obvious that the ull is a huge wildcard. Many times it will continue to gain strength on the models in the days leading up to an event. If it becomes strong enough to crash the 850s someone will get pasted.

Who will that be, and how widespread?

Tune in at 1:00 for "As the Euro turns!"

 

I agree. Don't know when but the models will play catch up. Minus the ULL you have a developing trough at 500mb over the east. Surface low taking shape in the GOM and a trailing 850 along the gulf coast all scream temps too warm on the models for 90% of NC even with a "retreating" HP.

[packbacker]

Out of curiosity, what was the setup for the 1/17/2013 ULL? I didn't really start following that one until the day before. I know it busted in a lot of places as temperatures were as marginal as possible, but it did work out here. I recall a torch prior to the storm and the day after the storm was fairly warm, too. Plus, all 3-5" in the area fell in 33-34 degree surface temperatures. We also saw torrential rains for the day prior to the storm, kind of like with March 2009.

 

 

 

There was a lot of comments like this 48-60 hours out..

 

"12z GFS nowhere even close outside of the mountains verbatim on temps"

 

"NAM looks solidly like a lousy rain event."

 

Euro:  "Nothing. 850 0c line dances north of the precip majority of run. 0c line at 66hrs is from CLT to RDU but that is after the precip has fallen, moves out. Not a lot of snow for anyone this run"

[nchighcountrywx]

[GaWx]

I agree the trends are there, but we are quickly running out of time.  EURO really needs to develop further west today or its game set match for us.  IMO

 

 Considering how far trends have gone in the last 24 or so, there's still enough time to make things quite favorable imo as it is still 48+ model hours away. The key is that we've got the great CAD high back. Without that, there was no chance for the CAD portion of the storm. Now that we have the CAD, can we get the moisture set back further in the Gulf so there's more to come to our area after the CAD has gotten established? There continues to be subtle shift westward in the moisture axis. One thing for sure is that this appears to be the closest call to a March ZR/IP in GA in a good number of years and there is still the chance for it to be the first big one since 3/25/1971 unless I missed another one.

[deltadog03]

 Considering how far trends have gone in the last 24 or so, there's still enough time to make things quite favorable imo as it is still 48+ model hours away. The key is that we've got the great CAD high back. Without that, there was no chance for the CAD portion of the storm. Now that we have the CAD, can we get the moisture set back further in the Gulf so there's more to come to our area after the CAD has gotten established? There continues to be subtle shift westward in the moisture axis. One thing for sure is that this appears to be the closest call to a March ZR/IP in GA in a good number of years.

The CAD sure is trying...Its going to be very close, but in the end, I just think its going to be short for most of us outside NC.  

[GaWx]

The CAD sure is trying...Its going to be very close, but in the end, I just think its going to be short for most of us outside NC.  

 

 We'll see. I'm not making a prediction one way or the other. I'm just enjoying the excitement of at least a close call that one wouldn't expect on 3/6! (as well as following the model trends..this is fun)

 

The 12Z UKMET is even more impressive with the CAD at hour 48 (pressures 2 mb higher in the SE) and the high is about the same to maybe very slightly stronger at 1039 vs. the 0Z UKMET. The low No precip. or 850 maps yet. This is so close to something really impressive!

 

Edit: The 12Z JMA has nice CAD from a 1039 high but the precip. with it is still not too impressive yet. There is a mille A 1011 low in the NE Gulf. Shft that baby west ~200 miles and many in Ga would likely be in business fior something special. Also, this run implies an upper low comes across GA after this with 850's getting just under 0C in spots. However, I only have 24 hour maps.

[deltadog03]

I would say its VERY close to really being a HUGE hit for many across the SE Larry....Its really fun to be even tracking something like this in MArch, as you said..Doc is up to the plate now.

[mackerel_sky]

We'll see. I'm not making a prediction one way or the other. I'm just enjoying the excitement of at least a close call that one wouldn't expect on 3/6! (as well as following the model trends..this is fun)

The 12Z UKMET is even more impressive with the CAD at hour 48 (pressures 2 mb higher in the SE) and the high is about the same to maybe very slightly stronger at 1039 vs. the 0Z UKMET. The low No precip. or 850 maps yet. This is so close to something really impressive!

Edit: The 12Z JMA has nice CAD from a 1039 high but the precip. with it is still not too impressive yet. There is a mille A 1011 low in the NE Gulf. Shft that baby west ~200 miles and many in Ga would likely be in business fior something special. Also, this run implies an upper low comes across GA after this with 850's getting just under 0C in spots. However, I only have 24 hour maps.

How has the UKMET been this winter? Is it a good short range model?