Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted March 4, 2014 Share Posted March 4, 2014 Well the precip is definitely not lacking for WNC this run of the NAM. 2.05 total qpf for my area this run. 1.51 of that falls with temps hovering freezing and dewpoint below freezing. If this run is 1-2 degrees too warm, some people are in big time trouble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 4, 2014 Share Posted March 4, 2014 RGEM looks really good for you guys @ 48 hours, there's more energy on the front side of the shortwave, HP looks good, shame we don't have it beyond, will be interesting if the GGEM looks good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 4, 2014 Share Posted March 4, 2014 RGEM looks really good for you guys @ 48 hours, there's more energy on the front side of the shortwave, HP looks good, shame we don't have it beyond, will be interesting if the GGEM looks good. x.php?app=core&module=attach§ion=attach&attach_rel_module=post&attach_id=124059]rgem.gif[/url] Agreed, 1042 HP further west than NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted March 4, 2014 Share Posted March 4, 2014 My gut tells me the track of the ULL would be somewhere just southeast of ATL to CAE then out to sea. I have a hard time guying this goes much further north than that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted March 4, 2014 Share Posted March 4, 2014 My gut tells me the track of the ULL would be somewhere just southeast of ATL to CAE then out to sea. I have a hard time guying this goes much further north than that. agreed....actually I think it tracks right over my head. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted March 4, 2014 Share Posted March 4, 2014 agreed....actually I think it tracks right over my head. if there is an ULL........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted March 4, 2014 Share Posted March 4, 2014 My gut tells me the track of the ULL would be somewhere just southeast of ATL to CAE then out to sea. I have a hard time guying this goes much further north than that.That is about the exact track of the 3/1/09 ULL ! It was 35-36 ish, with rain all day, then the low went by just to my S, and we got 6-8 inches! This one looks good and will most likely trend stronger! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted March 4, 2014 Share Posted March 4, 2014 if there is an ULL........ I'm excited, but I'm in a much better position. Of course any ULL is a bit like playing pin the tail on the donkey with the placement....not even taking into account right now the NAM is the only model with a really amped up on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted March 4, 2014 Share Posted March 4, 2014 That is about the exact track of the 3/1/09 ULL ! It was 35-36 ish, with rain all day, then the low went by just to my S, and we got 6-8 inches! This one looks good and will most likely trend stronger! I hope someone is lucky enough to cash in overnight Thursday into Friday...Just by going off some of the predictions on the upper low track, MBY may be watching some areas close by get pasted while I sit with a good ol' warm nose just above the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted March 4, 2014 Share Posted March 4, 2014 Well @39 the GFS is stronger. Not sure if it will cut it but it's a step. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted March 4, 2014 Share Posted March 4, 2014 Looks like it's really close to cutting off @42. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted March 4, 2014 Share Posted March 4, 2014 FWIW-- This is what JB had to say this morning... Keep in mind He did say threat! not his forecast. There is an ice storm in SE Texas on March 4. There is a threat of heavy snow in the western and central Carolinas in a few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted March 4, 2014 Share Posted March 4, 2014 @48 we have an ULL one contour on the border of LA and east TX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted March 4, 2014 Share Posted March 4, 2014 ...and by 54 it's opened again. This thing is way south of the NAM....back to closed @57. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted March 4, 2014 Share Posted March 4, 2014 My gut tells me the track of the ULL would be somewhere just southeast of ATL to CAE then out to sea. I have a hard time guying this goes much further north than that. I don't know there is still time to watch. Which Im a tad concern atm the ULL is too far south. It will probably be further north. If the rule of enter and exit the same rough longitude still applys... the S/W came ashore northern Cali and the track would argue exit off the NC/VA coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted March 4, 2014 Share Posted March 4, 2014 Well the GFS took a step but still not there. It's only about 400 miles south of the NAM. GFS is just as likely to be right at the NAM at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted March 4, 2014 Share Posted March 4, 2014 I'd hedge my bets that this ULL travels I-85 or north, climo in March would lend to this scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted March 4, 2014 Share Posted March 4, 2014 The last time an ULL swung through KCAE (during Winter) we ended up with snow graupal and thunder. Not much, but better than nothing. I understand the points about the low developing it's own cold core if it stregthens and stays cut off.. but here in my area.. not very confident in the ptype being Wintry. The 00z EPS has very very small trace members showing something frozen..(most likely snow in this scenario as the ULL swings by). I guess my main point is.. if you live in the Midlands of SC.. do not exactly get excited about this event. ULLs can and will screw even those further North over. I'm in the same boat of how Chris thinks about Macon for us currently. The Upstate into Border SC/NC counties may get something though. I've pretty much let go of the CAD situation even though models are struggling with placement and strength. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted March 4, 2014 Share Posted March 4, 2014 12z NAM gave GSO .6 zr before going to rain. 850's are 2-4.9. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 4, 2014 Share Posted March 4, 2014 My gut tells me the track of the ULL would be somewhere just southeast of ATL to CAE then out to sea. I have a hard time guying this goes much further north than that. Agreed, this thing can't climb but so high, Euro has exiting MYR. GFS has exiting over SAV. GEM has it over ILM. I think the consensus is between ILM and MYR, unless things dramatically change within 72 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 4, 2014 Share Posted March 4, 2014 UK looks to be colder than the GFS at 60, but HP is sliding fast at 60... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted March 4, 2014 Share Posted March 4, 2014 WRAL saying this morning it looks like all rain for Thursday, but "they are keeping an eye on it." Two days out and we still don't really know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted March 4, 2014 Share Posted March 4, 2014 saw mathew east blog and he thinks the other models are correct with a closed ull. he like gsp said gfs is the only model not showing this scenario. I guess GFS is out to lunch and is having a hard time sorting this storm out which is what has happened most of the winter. Let's hope all other models are correct... Sounds like GFS is all on its own, but that seems to be the one the local forecasters are going with now because they are calling for all rain here. I guess they just go with the most conservative one, even if it is only one model showing that. I thought the Euro has been more right than not this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Sisk Posted March 4, 2014 Share Posted March 4, 2014 That is about the exact track of the 3/1/09 ULL ! It was 35-36 ish, with rain all day, then the low went by just to my S, and we got 6-8 inches! This one looks good and will most likely trend stronger! Excellent memory! Here is a NWS follow-up of that event. I had about 4" in Taylors from that event. The east side of the mountain ranges got a dumping. I'd be happy with a similar setup! 4" in Taylors would be fun for the weekend!! http://www.erh.noaa.gov/gsp/localdat/cases/2009/1-2March2009Snow/1-2MarchSnow.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted March 4, 2014 Share Posted March 4, 2014 Sounds like GFS is all on its own, but that seems to be the one the local forecasters are going with now because they are calling for all rain here. I guess they just go with the most conservative one, even if it is only one model showing that. I thought the Euro has been more right than not this winter. At this time I believe all the models are showing rain for our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 4, 2014 Share Posted March 4, 2014 CMC looks a little colder than it's 0z run, HP a little stronger and hangs in just a bit longer, waiting on better maps though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted March 4, 2014 Share Posted March 4, 2014 CMC looks like an icy mix at the onset. It then warms across all areas with precip @54. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 4, 2014 Share Posted March 4, 2014 CMC looks like an icy mix at the onset. It then warms across all areas with precip @54. Yeah, but looks to be snow for a little bit between 85-77 and than flips to sleet. RDU all rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted March 4, 2014 Share Posted March 4, 2014 CMC @63 is very close to a wet heavy snow in portions of CNC. I-40 areas have light snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted March 4, 2014 Share Posted March 4, 2014 UK looks to be colder than the GFS at 60, but HP is sliding fast at 60... What about 925mb temps? NAM and GFS would imply freezing rain for CAD favored areas of NC/SC/VA with stout wedge with temps supportive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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