msuwx Posted March 4, 2014 Share Posted March 4, 2014 I spent a lot of time on this system in my video this morning. Most models, minus the GFS, have this becoming a closed upper level low. 6z NAM, Euro, and Canadian all show this. If that more intense ULL scenario (non-GFS) scenario is correct, I am pretty confident some snow will fall north and west of the ULL track. Dynamics should to the trick. However, if the GFS, weaker scenario is correct, nah. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted March 4, 2014 Share Posted March 4, 2014 I spent a lot of time on this system in my video this morning. Most models, minus the GFS, have this becoming a closed upper level low. 6z NAM, Euro, and Canadian all show this. If that more intense ULL scenario (non-GFS) scenario is correct, I am pretty confident some snow will fall north and west of the ULL track. Dynamics should to the trick. However, if the GFS, weaker scenario is correct, nah. wouldn't you go with what three or four models are saying instead of one (GFS) Euro has performed better anyway, hasn't it. I was reading where GSP was not going with the GFS but with the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted March 4, 2014 Share Posted March 4, 2014 yes, some of us need this to come west. These weak offshore lows only fringe us. With marginal temps it won't amount to much. isn't climo.....NORTH AND WEST USUALLY? but all we need is this low in the gulf to come a across the gulf states with a good slug of moisture traveling northeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted March 4, 2014 Share Posted March 4, 2014 NAM finally gets a clue with the southern wave and is a wintry mess for central and western NC. Euro Ensemble is stronger with the southern wave and closes it off south of Atlanta and tracks it across Columbia, to Hatteras. 850mb low tracks right up the Carolina coast. Sfc low tracks across northern FL to just off the Carolina coast, and is stronger this run. All textbook for central and western NC, and SC upstate snow...but will it be cold enough? The one piece missing is ridging in SW and south central Canada, with locked in 50/50 low, to deliver and maintain the cold air. Exactly Grit. The models lost this feature for the most part for the last several days, that's why I've essentially given up on this storm. It's just not going to be cold enough IMO (for CLT anyway) Perhaps 40 N will have one more shot at winter this year.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted March 4, 2014 Share Posted March 4, 2014 isn't climo.....NORTH AND WEST USUALLY? but all we need is this low in the gulf to come a across the gulf states with a good slug of moisture traveling northeast. It all is going to depend on where the ULL tracks. They are notorious about being unstable in their track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted March 4, 2014 Share Posted March 4, 2014 Can't stick around for the NAM this morning but out to 21 it already looks like it's going to be stronger than it's 6z run. Will be fun if it can close off and get a little stronger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted March 4, 2014 Share Posted March 4, 2014 saw mathew east blog and he thinks the other models are correct with a closed ull. he like gsp said gfs is the only model not showing this scenario. I guess GFS is out to lunch and is having a hard time sorting this storm out which is what has happened most of the winter. Let's hope all other models are correct... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted March 4, 2014 Share Posted March 4, 2014 12z nam looks like it will be a different solution from the 6z further east? More seperation of the SW over TX and Kansas. Trough overall is positive verus Neutral at 33. Slightly more baffin ridging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted March 4, 2014 Share Posted March 4, 2014 Phasing a bit early compare to 6z 6 had phasing further east 12z nam starts it over the TX,AR,LA region at hour 42. SW over Canada is further west allowing slightly better ridging over the Great Lakes region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted March 4, 2014 Share Posted March 4, 2014 Better CAD signature with surface HP slightly west. 0c isotherm appears TN/MS with the ULL. 12z has the ULL about fully closed off and further south over MS @ 57 Alot of rain over GA/AL with the ULL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted March 4, 2014 Share Posted March 4, 2014 This looks to be an almost perfect track for wnc. Two contour cut off low at hr 72 on the 12z nam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted March 4, 2014 Share Posted March 4, 2014 LOL at 12z NAM -- now THAT'S a "cutoff" low -- 850 low takes an entire day to move from Alabama to Ga. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AirNelson39 Posted March 4, 2014 Share Posted March 4, 2014 This looks to be an almost perfect track for wnc. Two contour cut off low at hr 72 on the 12z nam. If only the nam were reliable at this range, you can't argue with the trends though. As weak as the last several southern waves have been it's hard not to think this one will trend stronger. Guess I'm thinking more on law of averages but I don't see a reason for it not to happen. Euro is close to that as well so we shall see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted March 4, 2014 Share Posted March 4, 2014 Here is the 500mb level where you can see the two-contour closed low: Here is the precipitation response with the 850 mb temps. You can see that the ULL does bring down its own cold air. Lastly, here are the surface conditions, and the 0C line is nowhere to be found in the SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted March 4, 2014 Share Posted March 4, 2014 Terrible run temps-wise for N.C. -- not much CAD to speak of. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted March 4, 2014 Share Posted March 4, 2014 The ULL appears to work its magic in TN, northern MS and AL, but it doesn't translate into the Carolinas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted March 4, 2014 Share Posted March 4, 2014 Even with this warmer NAM run, the 32 line runs I-40 for alot of the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted March 4, 2014 Share Posted March 4, 2014 This looks to be an almost perfect track for wnc. Two contour cut off low at hr 72 on the 12z nam. Yeah it does. What concerns me its lost all CAD. Be a rainstorm from the foothills to the coast. LOL at 12z NAM -- now THAT'S a "cutoff" low -- 850 low takes an entire day to move from Alabama to Ga. Lol. I see that. Makes no sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted March 4, 2014 Share Posted March 4, 2014 Yeah, mainly because it spends almost the entire run SW of N.C. -- no cold air draw down with SE flow. If you assume there is a deform band there that the NAM isn't picking up on, this kind of a run would be a dream for N. Ga./SE Tenn. The ULL appears to work its magic in TN, northern MS and AL, but it doesn't translate into the Carolinas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted March 4, 2014 Share Posted March 4, 2014 Mountains and adjacent CAD foothills still get wintry weather with this warm run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NGA WINTER Posted March 4, 2014 Share Posted March 4, 2014 Not too bad of a run for Georgia folks. Storm makes it own cold air. Is a closed off strong ull what we should be hoping for? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
timnc910 Posted March 4, 2014 Share Posted March 4, 2014 I'm not sure the models are going to change drastically at this point to give us what we want. we need that storm today not chasing a retreating high pressure.. As much as I'd like more winter weather I've given up on this one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AirNelson39 Posted March 4, 2014 Share Posted March 4, 2014 At 72 the nam paints 1.5" qpf along the blue ridge. Resembles up sloping on the eastern slopes in regards of how the qpf is modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted March 4, 2014 Share Posted March 4, 2014 Just got to see the NAM. Wow it actually gets to two contours. The million dollar question will be the track. I love this look though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted March 4, 2014 Share Posted March 4, 2014 Everyone. With that ULL do not worry about temps. As you can see once it closes off and gets two contours it's creating a loop of 850 temps that are cold enough. That's the models seeing the cold core and it would be enough to produce snow on the NW side of it. This would all be dynamically driven as Matthew East stated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 4, 2014 Share Posted March 4, 2014 Just got to see the NAM. Wow it actually gets to two contours. The million dollar question will be the track. I love this look though. Agreed, w-NC has to like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AirNelson39 Posted March 4, 2014 Share Posted March 4, 2014 I'm not sure the models are going to change drastically at this point to give us what we want. we need that storm today not chasing a retreating high pressure.. As much as I'd like more winter weather I've given up on this oneCome on now, it's the nam towards the end of it's run. I wouldn't hang anything on this run. You will be eating crow if you let this 'warm' run of the nam skew your thoughts. Give it time, I think NW SC, N GA, and Central and western NC are easily in the running for a decent storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted March 4, 2014 Share Posted March 4, 2014 Come on now, it's the nam towards the end of it's run. I wouldn't hang anything on this run. You will be eating crow if you let this 'warm' run of the nam skew your thoughts. Give it time, I think NW SC, N GA, and Central and western NC are easily in the running for a decent storm IF it is right with the ULL getting stronger it def. will not die out as quickly as it shows in later frames. It should stay stronger longer and make it to the coast. I'm more worried about track right now. Should be fun to see if the GFS follows suit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted March 4, 2014 Share Posted March 4, 2014 Hi-Res NAM coming in colder than regular NAM at least at hour 60 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UpStateCAD Posted March 4, 2014 Share Posted March 4, 2014 Come on now, it's the nam towards the end of it's run. I wouldn't hang anything on this run. You will be eating crow if you let this 'warm' run of the nam skew your thoughts. Give it time, I think NW SC, N GA, and Central and western NC are easily in the running for a decent storm Agree....if you look at that ULL it moves ne from central alabama up towards ne georgia from hr 63 thru 75, then stops abruptly and heads due S SE back down towards the beaufort/savahhah area from hr 75 thruough 84. Looks strange to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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