3/6 - 3/7 Event is it this seasons last gasp?

[BIG FROSTY]

Cmc looks all frozen west of 77, mostly snow mtns, mix with rain and ends with good thump of snow 85 west.

YEP,  I would cash out on this run it's real close for me to be all snow!

[GaWx]

0Z CMC is slightly stronger and further south with the high: 1041 mb vs. 1040 on the 12Z and 1039 on yesterday's 0Z. CAD is better. Moisture in the CAD portion is still pretty limited. What would help a lot would be if the low off the SE coast were instead in the GOM at hour 60.

 

Trends!

[Blue_Ridge_Escarpment]

Not too bad from the GFS tonight; this is for the Morganton-Lenoir Airport:  

 

60 03/06 12Z 29 26 56 7 0.01 0.00 541 560 -2.1 -20.6 1023.2 97 -SN 040SCT053 139SCT238 252BKN372 29 28 0.7
66 03/06 18Z 28 27 57 7 0.25 0.00 541 560 -0.8 -19.8 1022.3 100 -SN 054OVC096 119OVC243 244BKN327 29 28 0.5
72 03/07 00Z 29 29 42 6 0.14 0.00 541 558 -0.3 -21.6 1020.3 100 -SN 040BKN075 119BKN241 243BKN294 30 29 0.5
78 03/07 06Z 29 28 23 5 0.04 0.00 541 557 0.3 -22.0 1019.5 96 -FZRN 052BKN114 122BKN237 243FEW263 30 29 0.5
84 03/07 12Z 24 23 353 5 0.00 0.00 542 557 1.5 -21.1 1019.5 48 -FZRN 059SCT087 148FEW221 244FEW274 29 21 1.9

 

 

Temps never get out of the 20's for the event according to this run.  

[GaWx]

Lows Thu morning at NYC last 3 GFS runs: 12Z: 30; 18Z: 27; 0Z 21

 

This is indicative of how much colder the high is getting. Get their low to 15 or so via a stronger high and I think the SE CAD regions are very much in the game.

[btownheel]

James, if we can make it to the 0C line and hold it on the models with that much QPF then IMO we are all majorly in business in central NC.  Combine the bias of the models to underdo CAD cooling along with the rates and the little bit of snowpack and polar air we have now to keep ground temps down and i think the combo of all three will get it done.  Not by a ton....but enough.

[mackerel_sky]

Will the bust in snow in the MA/NE with today's storm and temps in the 60s here on Wed, keep the CAD less cold than if VA/DC had gotten the widespread 10-12 inches?

[GaWx]

Will the bust in snow in the MA/NE with today's storm and temps in the 60s here on Wed, keep the CAD less cold than if VA/DC had gotten the widespread 10-12 inches?

 

Mack,

Great Q. any opinions?

 

Very early 0z Euro maps to hour 18 tell me the high will be stronger and probably further south than the 12Z Euro. More soon.

[deltadog03]

Larry what time frame with the high?  Because the stuff coming in late tomorrow night/wed am look like there is not chance of wintry around gA

[GaWx]

Larry what time frame with the high?  Because the stuff coming in late tomorrow night/wed am look like there is not chance of wintry around gA

 

Agreed. It is before the CAD. Looks like we'll likely get a 1040+ high this run.

 

Edit: the Euro is awfully slow tonight. And where is the 0Z UKMET??

[deltadog03]

Agreed. It is before the CAD. Looks like we'll likely get a 1040+ high this run.

ok, ya I agree...the qpf tomorrow night/wed am has no shot at wintry....lets see what the upper feature does

[GaWx]

ok, ya I agree...the qpf tomorrow night/wed am has no shot at wintry....lets see what the upper feature does

 

I'm not giving up on eventually getting CAD related IP/ZR THU if trends continue. The upper feature may also eventually produce is some places.

 

Edit: Euro fall sleep lol? And no UKMET?

[mackerel_sky]

Mack,

Great Q. any opinions?

Very early 0z Euro maps to hour 18 tell me the high will be stronger and probably further south than the 12Z Euro. More soon.

My opinion is if we don't have alot of solid snowcover to our N, it could only hurt us !? If the high is strong enough and in good position, we don't need the snowcover . But, if we need it for a marginal event, that could mean the difference between 33 and rain or 31 and major ice. JMO

[deltadog03]

I'm not giving up on eventually getting CAD related IP/ZR THU if trends continue. The upper feature may also eventually produce is some places.

 

Edit: Euro fall sleep lol? And no UKMET?

ya, euro is frozen on hr48 from my vendor...idk about ukie

[GaWx]

ya, euro is frozen on hr48 from my vendor...idk about ukie

 

Back going again. Colder/stronger high and CAD trends very much continuing.12Z 3/6 map has 1039 high vs. 1038 prior run. Also, high penetrates further south and gives much better CAD. As a result, there's quite a cold rain verbatim into CAD regions of GA/SC/NC on 3/6 but in reality I'd expect that to be largely IP/ZR on this run due to a warm bias. The upper low then has pockets of sub 0C at 850 mainly GA with precip. Verbatim it is rain, but Euro warm bias again at two meters needs to be considered if assuming isothermal from 850 to the ground.

 

 If these trends continue into tomorrow, I dare say we'll see major ZR/IP in CAD regions for 3/6 on various models. Also, we'll have to see about the tricky upper low.

 

Edit: Last four Euros going forward: 1038, 1035, 1038, 1039

[superjames1992]

The Euro is colder at the surface, warmer at 850 mb.  Verbatim, it's showing an ice storm for GSO.  CLT looks a little above freezing (Euro warm bias possibly).  There may be some snow in between the six-hour panels, too.  It's a bit different than 12z.  The HP is stronger yet again.

 

I guess they just decided not to release the UKMET tonight.

 

EDIT: Well, I should clarify...  It's also colder at 850 mb initially with the stronger CAD, but 850s warm as the precip moves in.  Some areas in N&W NC probably start out as snow before going over to IP and then ZR/RN.  The clown shoes 8.1" for GSO and 7.5" for CLT, but I don't think a lot of that is actually snow.  It's certainly a colder run at the surface.

 

-----------

 

Also, the GEFS mean continues to strengthen the HP in the NE.  It went from 1031 mb to 1033 mb from 12z to 18z and now at 00z it's up to 1035 mb at hr 66.  In addition, it is further south and in better position.

 

00z: http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2014030400/gfs-ens_mslpa_sd_us_12.png

 

18z: http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2014030318/gfs-ens_mslpa_sd_us_13.png

 

12z: http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2014030312/gfs-ens_mslpa_sd_us_14.png

[mackerel_sky]

Sj, on those maps from 00z, what's that low in TN? Is that the upper level low?

[GaWx]

 I got some 0Z UKMET to hour 72 and it looks even better with regard to excellent CAD and nice placement of a Miller A under the CAD. Now, if it can trend even further west with the Gulf low, it is really going to get interesting. As it is here, this at least looks like some threat of ZR and maybe IP in some of the CAD regions. Also, the upper low appears to be pretty potent but it is hard to tell with some maps missing.

 

Looks like a 1038ish high at 12Z on 3/6, similar to the prior two runs.

[griteater]

NAM finally gets a clue with the southern wave and is a wintry mess for central and western NC.

 

Euro Ensemble is stronger with the southern wave and closes it off south of Atlanta and tracks it across Columbia, to Hatteras.  850mb low tracks right up the Carolina coast.  Sfc low tracks across northern FL to just off the Carolina coast, and is stronger this run.  All textbook for central and western NC, and SC upstate snow...but will it be cold enough?  The one piece missing is ridging in SW and south central Canada, with locked in 50/50 low, to deliver and maintain the cold air.

[burgertime]

NAM looks really good...but it is the NAM out past 48 hours. GFS looked like it was taking the right track but it's very weak. It will be interesting to see if somehow the NAM can overcome the global models and keep this trending stronger. It def. will trend further south that seems to be a given. 

[burrel2]

The hi-res NAM has subfreezing temps almost to Georgia at 18z Thursday with steady precip falling...

[AirNelson39]

NAM looks really good...but it is the NAM out past 48 hours. GFS looked like it was taking the right track but it's very weak. It will be interesting to see if somehow the NAM can overcome the global models and keep this trending stronger. It def. will trend further south that seems to be a given.

As it stands on the 6z gfs the mtns and foothills are on the very fringe in terms of precip so if this trend south then western nc will be out of it and will nearly be out of it if the nam trends south as well. I hope you're wrong about the south trend

[packbacker]

Looking back at March 2009, it had a 1040 high over the lakes and there was still marginal surface temps, 850's were fine, going to be very tough with 850's just below 0.

http://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/cases/20090302/2009030200.gif

[Buddy1987]

Lol I don't understand reading the Blacksburg afd they make it seem like a pure rain event no mention of cad really at all and some back end snow. Come on here and it gets me excited. Guess I'm a little deflated from this last debacle.

[burgertime]

As it stands on the 6z gfs the mtns and foothills are on the very fringe in terms of precip so if this trend south then western nc will be out of it and will nearly be out of it if the nam trends south as well. I hope you're wrong about the south trend

 

I think 6z GFS is the furthest south right now of any model at 5h...it's also the weakest it seems. I doubt NAM gets that far south but given where the globals are and the big jump south it took from the last few runs the NAM I would guess has to go further south east with the placement of features. The big question will be how much QPF is generated. I'm feeling more confident that specifically WNC gets into play with temps but will there be enough QPF? 

[burrel2]

Lol I don't understand reading the Blacksburg afd they make it seem like a pure rain event no mention of cad really at all and some back end snow. Come on here and it gets me excited. Guess I'm a little deflated from this last debacle.

Well,

 

There is definitely going to be a Classic CAD event, but that doesn’t mean we will see much frozen precip considering it’s March.  This is going to be one of those events where there’s no telling what will happen until we get into nowcasting mode.  That being said, I think you are in about as good of a spot as anybody, if the 5h low tracks just right, you could get obliterated. 

 

I would hate to be a forecaster for this one.  

[burgertime]

Looking back at March 2009, it had a 1040 high over the lakes and there was still marginal surface temps, 850's were fine, going to be very tough with 850's just below 0.

http://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/cases/20090302/2009030200.gif

 

My problem with comparing this to the March storm is it was like a 3 contour ULL which was very strong. NAM is trying to close it off and on...and of and on again but it needs to close off early, gain steam and get stronger to get us to a March 2009 type system. Even the map you show it's still like 2 contour. Interestingly enough it looks like we might have better surface temps which should help out on your side. Not too optimistic just yet on CLT but WNC, CNC and possibly north eastern NC could be in play. 

[burgertime]

In case anyone was wondering Hi-Res NAM is ZR from along I-85 to just about Concord. WNC is snow along I-40. That is sure to change. 

[NCSNOW]

Here is a great AFD from Rah where things stand at the moment: I would love one more big thump before spring sets in. I do believe this is our last shot for MBY from what I'm looking at climo and model wise over the next 15 days. So hopefully we can rope it in.

FOR WED/WED NIGHT: AN E-W ORIENTED FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD THROUGH

THE NRN GREAT LAKES EARLY WED... USHERING IN A REINFORCING ARCTIC

AIR MASS AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WITH AROUND 1040 MB CENTRAL

PRESSURE SHIFTS FROM CENTRAL ONTARIO TOWARD SOUTHERN QUEBEC... A

FAVORABLE POSITION FOR ITS COLD AIR TO RIDGE STRONGLY SOUTHWARD INTO

NC STARTING WED EVENING. THE GFS`S STRONGER VORTICITY MAXIMA

CROSSING THE CAROLINAS WED AS COMPARED TO THE NAM/ECMWF STILL LOOKS

OVERDONE... AND THE MORE SOUTHERLY/WEAKER NAM/ECMWF IS PREFERRED...

ALTHOUGH AGAIN THE CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS LOWER THAN USUAL. WILL GO

WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR WED... ALTHOUGH PATCHY VERY LIGHT RAIN OR

DRIZZLE CAN`T BE RULED OUT IN THE FAR SE CWA. EXPECT HIGHS OF 47-

52... BUT THESE COULD BE A LITTLE TOO WARM IF THE GFS AND ITS

GREATER CLOUD COVER/PRECIP CHANCES COME TO PASS. THE NEXT MID LEVEL

TROUGH OF SIGNIFICANCE -- OVER THE ROCKIES THIS MORNING -- IS

EXPECTED TO DEEPEN AS IT CROSSES THE PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MISS

VALLEY THROUGH WED NIGHT. ITS APPROACH WILL LEAD TO INCREASING

ASCENT AND MOISTENING OF THE COLUMN OVER NC WED NIGHT... WITH

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE LIKELY TO FORM OVER THE NE GULF... JUST AS THE

STRONG SURFACE HIGH OVER SRN QUEBEC SETS UP A DAMMING WEDGE INTO

CENTRAL NC... SETTING THE STAGE FOR ADDITIONAL INTERESTING (AND

POTENTIALLY WINTRY IN SOME AREAS) WEATHER FOR LATER IN THE WEEK.

AGAIN LEANING TOWARD THE NAM/ECMWF... WHICH HOLD OFF MUCH OF THE

RETURN FLOW AND MOIST UPGLIDE UNTIL AFTER 12Z THU... WILL BRING IN

JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN OVER THE FAR SRN CWA TOWARD

DAYBREAK THU. LOWS 29-36. -GIH

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...

WEST COAST RIDGING WILL ALLOW A SHORTWAVE MOVING FROM THE ROCKIES

TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST US TO AMPLIFY OVER THE SOUTHEAST ON THURSDAY.

CYCLOGENESIS IS EXPECTED OVER THE EASTERN GOMEX BY THURSDAY

AFTERNOON...WITH A MILLER-A TYPE SURFACE LOW TRACK ALONG THE

CAROLINA COAST. AS QG FORCING INCREASES OVER THE REGION...PRECIP

WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS...REACHING THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF

NC BY AS EARLY AS MIDDAY THURSDAY BASED ON CURRENT MODEL FORECASTS.

THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS SYSTEM THE LOCATION OF MEANWHILE...A

CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND DOWN THE EASTERN

SEABOARD INTO THE CAROLINAS. WHILE THE HIGH IS PROGRESSIVE...MODELS

SEEM TO BE A BIT STRONGER AND FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE CENTER OF THE

HIGH NEAR THE NY/CANADIAN BORDER AREA. THIS KEEPS A SLIGHTLY BETTER

SUPPLY OF COLD LOW-LEVEL AIR INTO NC AS PRECIP OVERSPREADS THE

AREA...AND PARTIAL THICKNESSES CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE WESTERN

PIEDMONT FOR ANY CHANCE OF A WINTRY MIX...MAINLY THURSDAY NIGHT.

THERE IS STILL A LOT OF MODEL SPREAD REGARDING THE PHASING OF UPPER

LEVEL ENERGY WITHIN THE TROUGH AND THE SUBSEQUENT TRACK OF THE

SURFACE LOW...AND WITHOUT A NOTABLY COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE AHEAD OF

THIS SYSTEM... CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST DETAILS IS SOMEWHAT LOW AT

THIS POINT.

CHILLY HIGHS IN THE 40S ON THURSDAY WILL BE SENSITIVE TO HOW QUICKLY

PRECIP SPREADS INTO THE AREA...WITH TEMPS THEN FALLING INTO THE 30S

THURSDAY NIGHT...HOVERING NEAR THE FREEZING MARK IN THE NORTHWEST

PIEDMONT WHERE THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY WINTRY PRECIP WOULD BE

GREATEST. AS THE SYSTEM PULLS AWAY ON FRIDAY AND DRYING/CLEARING

OCCURS FROM WEST TO EAST...THICKNESSES WOULD SUPPORT HIGHS TRYING TO

REACH THE LOWER 50S IN THE WEST. THE 00Z/04 ECMWF HOLDS ONTO THE

PRECIP A BIT LONGER THAN ITS PREVIOUS RUN...AND SO THERE IS SOME

UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW MUCH WARMING WILL BE POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY AS

WELL.

[franklin NCwx]

As it stands on the 6z gfs the mtns and foothills are on the very fringe in terms of precip so if this trend south then western nc will be out of it and will nearly be out of it if the nam trends south as well. I hope you're wrong about the south trend

yes, some of us need this to come west. These weak offshore lows only fringe us. With marginal temps it won't amount to much.

[packbacker]

My problem with comparing this to the March storm is it was like a 3 contour ULL which was very strong. NAM is trying to close it off and on...and of and on again but it needs to close off early, gain steam and get stronger to get us to a March 2009 type system. Even the map you show it's still like 2 contour. Interestingly enough it looks like we might have better surface temps which should help out on your side. Not too optimistic just yet on CLT but WNC, CNC and possibly north eastern NC could be in play.

We don't have that dynamic of a system, at least not yet, I agree places west of I-77 will have best chance with temps while central NC has best chance with precip as this is a progressive pattern still. Euro was slower with the ULL, we need it faster which fights wanting a deeper system.