Hvward Posted March 4, 2014 Share Posted March 4, 2014 Oh, I don't buy it at all....Hell to Naw...HAHAHA The NAM is almost worthless. Yeah nam has been pretty worthless this year outside 36 hours. Heck not even 36 hours, I did think it was noteworthy that the high was trending at least for mby. You guys might need a little more then that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
10below Posted March 4, 2014 Share Posted March 4, 2014 I got a feeling this one is gonna put the hammer down one more good time before winter ends. If mby misses it will be by the skin of my teeth. Mountains foothills in NC should be feeling real good about the prospects with this one. Heck I'm feeling pretty confident myself. Unfortunately I can't say the same for the Irish right now. and there you have it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted March 4, 2014 Share Posted March 4, 2014 Yeah nam has been pretty worthless this year outside 36 hours. Heck not even 36 hours, I did think it was noteworthy that the high was trending at least for mby. You guys might need a little more then that. The GFS and NAM both need to be upgraded. We deserve better as taxpayers IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted March 4, 2014 Share Posted March 4, 2014 The GFS and NAM both need to be upgraded. We deserve better as taxpayers IMO. agreed haha the weather is pretty important imo. But thats another argument. Hopefully the gfs can lead the way with this one and nail it down tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted March 4, 2014 Share Posted March 4, 2014 The 00z NAM was actually quite an improvement for NC, IMO. Not that it really matters as the LR NAM is horrendous, but the 18z NAM really didn't have a storm at all (except some light stuff several hundred miles offshore). It's also colder than the prior run. Yes, the verbatim solution sucks for the most part, but still. It is interesting that the 00z NAM indicates some cooling in eastern NC on this run and crashes 850s under the heavy precipitation east of Raleigh. At this point, I don't really think anyone outside of NC and maybe upstate SC and extreme NE GA is in the game, but you never know how these things will go. I'm very interested in tonight's runs to see if they hold. If they do, this one might have a realistic chance of happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted March 4, 2014 Share Posted March 4, 2014 its nice to see the trends a little more on the positive side, but still not really all that excited for n ga, at least. it sure would be nice to go out with a bang, but once we hit mid march here i pretty much discount winter weather unless an extreme fluke or strong ull that happens to go over mby lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted March 4, 2014 Share Posted March 4, 2014 its nice to see the trends a little more on the positive side, but still not really all that excited for n ga, at least. it sure would be nice to go out with a bang, but once we hit mid march here i pretty much discount winter weather unless an extreme fluke or strong ull that happens to go over mby lol Yep. Will the last person leaving the model thread please turn off the router. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted March 4, 2014 Share Posted March 4, 2014 The 00z NAM was actually quite an improvement for NC, IMO. Not that it really matters as the LR NAM is horrendous, but the 18z NAM really didn't have a storm at all (except some light stuff several hundred miles offshore). It's also colder than the prior run. Yes, the verbatim solution sucks for the most part, but still. It is interesting that the 00z NAM indicates some cooling in eastern NC on this run and crashes 850s under the heavy precipitation east of Raleigh. At this point, I don't really think anyone outside of NC and maybe upstate SC and extreme NE GA is in the game, but you never know how these things will go. I'm very interested in tonight's runs to see if they hold. If they do, this one might have a realistic chance of happening. I agree. Also too the fact the HP is further south and better position that ultimately leads to a better CAD. 925 temps would be indicative of a good wedge with zr potential in NW SC, NE GA if there was precip falling even if the 0z nam says no. I think though among the models the cold is generally under done atm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted March 4, 2014 Share Posted March 4, 2014 Well, well, well. I just got home and looked at the 0Z NAM hour 60 map for 12Z on 3/6. I'm not the least bit crazy about the NAM especially out past hour 48 but I can't help notice the 1040ish high and it being even further south than earlier runs! The 0Z position is ~350 miles south of the 6Z! Wow! IF this is a sign of things to come for the 0Z runs, look out! Last four NAM: 1037, 1035, 1036, 1040! And suddenly the NAM now has a pretty strong wedging signature. Moreover, even though we still don't have a true Miller A, this run got closer to that and has a good bit of the moisture in the E GOM and not just concentrated off the SE coast. If this trend keeps up, we're probably going to generate a nice Miller A on the model consensus as we keep getting closer. It is all about trends, folks. This has been going on since last night. Let's see if the other 0Z's keeps it up. Edit: 0Z GFS first up and has stronger high and stronger CAD! At 12Z 3/6, 0Z GFS has 1039 v. 18Z gfs 1038 and it is 100 miles south of the 18Z! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted March 4, 2014 Share Posted March 4, 2014 I would agree about the trends Larry.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted March 4, 2014 Share Posted March 4, 2014 @72 low cuts off over ga/al on gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted March 4, 2014 Share Posted March 4, 2014 ZR in the upstate, snow in the mtns, and ZR/IP in W NC by 18z thur Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted March 4, 2014 Share Posted March 4, 2014 gone 6 hour later...MTN still snowing by 00z FRI they will do good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 4, 2014 Share Posted March 4, 2014 JMA looks good, 1033 HP over Boston, verbatim NW NC including triad getting snow at hour 72. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted March 4, 2014 Share Posted March 4, 2014 It'll all be gone by Friday , with highs in the 60s, just want to see it fall one more time! Trends are great, but if we end up with a strong , dry wedge, that would be dissapointing! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted March 4, 2014 Share Posted March 4, 2014 Looks like snow in HKY, IP at CLT by 18z Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted March 4, 2014 Share Posted March 4, 2014 It'll all be gone by Friday , with highs in the 60s, just want to see it fall one more time! Trends are great, but if we end up with a strong , dry wedge, that would be dissapointing! Mack, Trends are going toward not only a stronger wedge but more moisture with the lowest pressure gradually shifting westward from off the E coast to in the GOM. Folks, Look at what has happened on the last five GFS runs as a good illustration as of 12Z on 3/6 for the high: - 0Z 3/3 run: 1039; 18Z 3/2 run 1038; 12Z 3/2 run: 1037; 6Z 3/2 run: 1036; 0Z 3/2 run: 1034. So, 1034, 35, 37, 38, 39. - 0Z 3/3 high is centered 300 miles south of the 6Z 3/2 GFS position. - 850s and 2 meter temp.'s are sig. colder vs. earlier GFS runs in much of the E US. - Lowest pressure now south of FL panhandle as opposed to off the SE coast. - Note that the 500 mb southern stream trough axis is shifting westward with every run since the 6Z, thus bringing the moisture axis back westward. I suggest folks go to the NOAA GFS site and compare the last four runs for 12Z on 3/6 at 500 mb. There has been ~50-75 mile shift from one run to the next while the NE high has been getting stronger. - If this keeps up, we're liable to see on near future runs a classic Miller A reappear in the northern Gulf along with even stronger CAD producing a full fledged IP/ZR storm for at least the main CAD areas of NC/SC/GA like the Euro, CMC, and other models were showing as late as 0Z on 3/2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted March 4, 2014 Share Posted March 4, 2014 Mack, Trends are going toward not only a stronger wedge but more moisture with the lowest pressure gradually shifting westward from off the E coast to in the GOM. Folks, Look at what has happened on the last five GFS runs as a good illustration as of 12Z on 3/6 for the high: - 0Z 3/3 run: 1039; 18Z 3/2 run 1038; 12Z 3/2 run: 1037; 6Z 3/2 run: 1036; 0Z 3/2 run: 1034. So, 1034, 35, 37, 38, 39. - 0Z 3/3 high is centered 300 miles south of the 6Z 3/2 GFS position. - 850s and 2 meter temp.'s are sig. colder vs. earlier GFS runs in much of the E US. - Lowest pressure now south of FL panhandle as opposed to off the SE coast. - Note that the 500 mb southern stream trough axis is shifting westward with every run since the 6Z, thus bringing the moisture axis back westward. I suggest folks go to the NOAA GFS site and compare the last four runs for 12Z on 3/6 at 500 mb. There has been ~50-75 mile shift from one run to the next while the NE high has been getting stronger. - If this keeps up, we're liable to see on near future runs a classic Miller A reappear in the northern Gulf along with even stronger CAD producing a full fledged IP/ZR storm for at least the main CAD areas of NC/SC/GA like the Euro, CMC, and other models were showing as late as 0Z on 3/2. Today has been a good day based on your info, and we are getting closer, I'm all in! I will be up for the euro and everything in between! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted March 4, 2014 Share Posted March 4, 2014 CAD is stronger on the CMC, but the backlash precip is unbelievable. Assuming it’s cold enough, it looks like the CMC is dropping a couple feet of snow on Greensboro thurs night/friday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted March 4, 2014 Share Posted March 4, 2014 Wow, QPF on the Canadian is freaking nuts. 12 hour precip of 56 mm centered over GSO (give or take) at hr 84. LOL. EDIT: And there's more by hr 96. Not sure on temperatures yet, but wowzers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted March 4, 2014 Share Posted March 4, 2014 Wow, QPF on the Canadian is freaking nuts. 12 hour precip of 56 mm centered over GSO (give or take) at hr 84. LOL.How are temps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWC Posted March 4, 2014 Share Posted March 4, 2014 Well Guys thanks for the good reading and your hard work on this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSU2005 Posted March 4, 2014 Share Posted March 4, 2014 James - how is the QPF back to RDU on the Canadian? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 4, 2014 Share Posted March 4, 2014 Wow, QPF on the Canadian is freaking nuts. 12 hour precip of 56 mm centered over GSO (give or take) at hr 84. LOL. EDIT: And there's more by hr 96. Not sure on temperatures yet, but wowzers. HP is stronger and further south, it has to be atleast as good as 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 4, 2014 Share Posted March 4, 2014 HP is stronger and further south, it has to be atleast as good as 12z. Rain pretty much if this is to be believed... except in the mts of W NC http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted March 4, 2014 Share Posted March 4, 2014 Hard to beat the euro op and ensembles when their alone, but when you get the Canadian and ukmet to stand behind them it's tough to beat. Telling you I'm feeling this one for at least somewhere in western NC to get thumped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted March 4, 2014 Share Posted March 4, 2014 Looks like 850s read out as +/-0C during the height of the precip with surface temperatures of 32F for the Triad and 33-34 towards CLT. Not sure about thicknesses yet. With such heavy precip, I'd personally bank on a decent portion of it being snow, regardless of what it shows. If you do take the model verbatim, it's mostly rain, though. I'm not sure if I'm buying getting a massive 32F rain, but eh. The HP was in better position, too. The Canadian model output verbatim would be total meltdown material for me. Nothing like a crushing 2" 32-degree rainstorm. The clown still puts out 3-6" of snow from AVL to CLT to GSO, so maybe there's some mixing in between the panels, verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WSNC Posted March 4, 2014 Share Posted March 4, 2014 Rain pretty much if this is to be believed... except in the mts of W NC http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html That looks like this morning's map at 8am. The current run is going to make a lot of people happy if it verifies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 4, 2014 Share Posted March 4, 2014 That looks like this morning's map at 8am. The current run is going to make a lot of people happy if it verifies. Change the date to 04 and 00z run... move it to 72 and go forward... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted March 4, 2014 Share Posted March 4, 2014 Cmc looks all frozen west of 77, mostly snow mtns, mix with rain and ends with good thump of snow 85 west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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