Cold Rain Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 I am not sure I want anything else wintry this week. Already had to reschedule a church event for tonight to Thursday. Now that might get canceled again. If it is going to do something wintry it might as well be a big snow instead of this nuisance event we got today. I'm sure God is aware that you had to reschedule your church activity. I would guess he's ok with it, since it's sleeting and snowing. I wouldn't sweat it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Well @84 a good bit of moisture with a 1036 high in Maine and a 1028 high it looks like around VA. Not showing much at the SFC but that could def. help for folks in central NC. This is a big hit for Boone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Not bad for Boone like you mentioned Burger and not too bad for my area just on the lee side of the apps here.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 It looks to me like the 12z Ukmet implies an ice storm Thursday morning maybe as far South as Atlanta. It definitely has the best CAD look of any model, and it also looks to have plenty of precip arriving early Thursday morning. Thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 seems like we're trending in the right direction today. let's keep it going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 I am not sure I want anything else wintry this week. Already had to reschedule a church event for tonight to Thursday. Now that might get canceled again. If it is going to do something wintry it might as well be a big snow instead of this nuisance event we got today. Don't worry, this will most likely be an I-40/85 NW event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 The 18z GEFS mean features a subtle improvement from the 12z to 18z runs. You can see the HP is stronger and further south and more CAD is evident. 18z: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 The 18z GEFS feature a subtle improvement from the 12z to 18z runs. You can see the HP is stronger and further south and more .png] Is it to much to ask for it to be a 1040HP and located 50-100 miles to the SW... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Is it to much to ask for it to be a 1040HP and located 50-100 miles to the SW...Not at all. Today's position of the high is atleast 209 milesSE of where it was shown yesterday! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Is it to much to ask for it to be a 1040HP and located 50-100 miles to the SW... Based on the trends since last night that I've been mentioning, it is absolutely not too much to ask. Also, the best bet would be for the low to be positioned back to the west and be a classic Miller A like it was on those great earlier runs and really work with the CAD with heavy precip. In other words, get rid of the low being off the SE coast so soon. The 18Z GFS went in that direction very nicely and that is the consensus trend right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted March 4, 2014 Share Posted March 4, 2014 Maybe I'm the only poster not yet completely giving up on the return of the CAD threat. Yes, there's a long way to go and odds are currently low but I still think there's time to trend back, especially considering that changes have been pretty large since Saturday (i.e., unstable models) and the Euro was still showing a major threat for CAD areas as recently as the 0Z run of yesterday (3/2). That's why I said yesterday I was going to give it till today (really tonight's 0Z runs) before giving up. So, I'll keep watching the strength of the potential CAD high for the rest of the day and night and also see if the Miller A returns to like it was. The low likely needs to be weak and it needs to be near the N GOM instead of off the SE coast as of 12Z 3/6. So to repeat, the 12Z GFS has the high at 1037 mb vs. 1034 on the 0Z GFS. The just released 12Z CMC has the high at 1040 mb vs. 1039 on today's 0Z and 1035 on yesterday's 0Z CMC. Edit: Yesterday's 12Z Euro was at 1038 while today's 0Z was only 1035. Based on the overerall model trends since 0Z today, I expect a stronger high than the 0Z Euro on today's 12Z Euro. We'll see. Edit #2; GEFS: 0Z: 1033; 6Z: 1034; 12Z: 1034 Regarding the potential CAD event: As of 12Z on 3/6: 18Z GFS 1038 mb vs. 1037 12Z GFS vs. 1034 mb 0Z GFS. High center has shifted 250 miles SW of the 0Z GFS. Lowest pressure now south of FL panhandle as opposed to off the SE coast. Trends, folks, trends! Could this trend back be partially due to snowcover to the north? Needless to say, the 0Z runs will be quite interesting! Will they continue the trend back? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted March 4, 2014 Share Posted March 4, 2014 Day 3 CIP's Analogs time.... I'm only going to list the ones which generated a winter storm that I recognize, which is mostly the ones since 2000... #2: 1/25/87: http://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/cases/maps/accum.19870126.gif #5: 1/24/00: http://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/cases/20000125/accum.20000125.gif #8: 2/10/11: http://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/cases/maps/accum.20110210.gif #10: 1/30/10: http://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/cases/20100129/accum.20100129.gif #11: 2/19/12: http://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/cases/maps/accum.20120219.gif #14: 2/3/05 http://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/cases/maps/accum.20050203.gif #15: 2/13/08 (The Valentine's Day Surprise) http://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/cases/20080213/accum.20080213.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceagewhereartthou Posted March 4, 2014 Share Posted March 4, 2014 A lot of NC should like! These maps would be a cruel nightmare for western upstate, same old same old. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceagewhereartthou Posted March 4, 2014 Share Posted March 4, 2014 You can't deny the changes in this mornings/ afternoon runs are trending colder. They kept getting warmer and worse yesterday , and they have started to reverse that trend, and if they keep going colder/ better high placement , it won't be a NC storm only! Yeah, but you also can't deny history and climo. Somebody is going to get a nice snow, but chances for the upstate are almost zero. By far, best chance would be from union and gaffney over to rock hill and north. West of there is virtually without hope in this type setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crapper Jim Posted March 4, 2014 Share Posted March 4, 2014 Just read the GSP AFD. Forecast looks like "beans on toast (my wife is British)". Seems the trend (is your friend) seems to be holding. Moderation. Not excited. 2 weeks left here. Changed my lawnmower oil, cleared out my perennial breathing space, smashed all my winter anticipation beer cans... the party may be over. We need a "major fookup" in the pattern for us southern folk to throw another party. Bring on the Thunderstorms, tornadoes, hail, other fires from the sky! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted March 4, 2014 Share Posted March 4, 2014 Yeah, but you also can't deny history and climo. Somebody is going to get a nice snow, but chances for the upstate are almost zero. By far, best chance would be from union and gaffney over to rock hill and north. West of there is virtually without hope in this type setup.It ain't over til April first! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 4, 2014 Share Posted March 4, 2014 Day 3 CIP's Analogs time.... I'm only going to list the ones which generated a winter storm that I recognize, which is mostly the ones since 2000... #2: 1/25/87: http://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/cases/maps/accum.19870126.gif #5: 1/24/00: http://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/cases/20000125/accum.20000125.gif #8: 2/10/11: http://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/cases/maps/accum.20110210.gif #10: 1/30/10: http://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/cases/20100129/accum.20100129.gif #11: 2/19/12: http://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/cases/maps/accum.20120219.gif #14: 2/3/05 http://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/cases/maps/accum.20050203.gif #15: 2/13/08 (The Valentine's Day Surprise) http://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/cases/20080213/accum.20080213.gif The CIP's are definitely pretty good. It will be nice to watch models tonight, practically every one will have the storm, within 72 hours from this thing starting, "potentially" (knock on wood), unless all the models suck tonight. Although not staying up for the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceagewhereartthou Posted March 4, 2014 Share Posted March 4, 2014 It ain't over til April first! Sadly it's been over for us since feb 16th. 11 days in 60s and 70s, and only 4 lows of 32 or less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted March 4, 2014 Share Posted March 4, 2014 The CIP's are definitely pretty good. It will be nice to watch models tonight, practically every one will have the storm, within 72 hours from this thing starting, "potentially" (knock on wood), unless all the models suck tonight. Although not staying up for the Euro. SREF has a 1040 high at hr 60. Sounds like a good start to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted March 4, 2014 Share Posted March 4, 2014 I got a feeling this one is gonna put the hammer down one more good time before winter ends. If mby misses it will be by the skin of my teeth. Mountains foothills in NC should be feeling real good about the prospects with this one. Heck I'm feeling pretty confident myself. Unfortunately I can't say the same for the Irish right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted March 4, 2014 Share Posted March 4, 2014 It ain't over til April first! Amen to that. Good positive attitude for this odd ball winter. I know there is atleast one event for cold/precip wise up April's sleeve. I've seen some strange stuff in the month of April. It would fit this winter well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 4, 2014 Share Posted March 4, 2014 SREF has a 1040 high at hr 60. Sounds like a good start to me. I got a feeling this one is gonna put the hammer down one more good time before winter ends. If mby misses it will be by the skin of my teeth. Mountains foothills in NC should be feeling real good about the prospects with this one. Heck I'm feeling pretty confident myself. Unfortunately I can't say the same for the Irish right now. Your neck of the woods are in the best spot. I want to see this turn into a wrapped up beast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted March 4, 2014 Share Posted March 4, 2014 00z nam following suit with showing a 1041mb high at hour 36. Lost to be sw of previous also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted March 4, 2014 Share Posted March 4, 2014 Your neck of the woods are in the best spot. I want to see this turn into a wrapped up beast. Yeah I feel like wnc is in the best spot for snowfall. Hopefully that new snowfall some of you guys got can help. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted March 4, 2014 Share Posted March 4, 2014 Amen to that. Good positive attitude for this odd ball winter. I know there is atleast one event for cold/precip wise up April's sleeve. I've seen some strange stuff in the month of April. It would fit this winter well. The latest I've seen snow fall from the sky imby was April 11! The earliest was Nov 7, and it gave a dusting! That was in 1995, and that 95-96 winter was amazing down here! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted March 4, 2014 Share Posted March 4, 2014 The trend on the 00z NAM is excellent for CAD. We need that northern piece of energy in Southern Canada to swing on through the northeast to set up our confluence, and this run is doing just that which generates a massive high pressure over the northeast... the only problem is the NAM is a disaster with our southern parcel. I’m not too worried about that though, as the global model’s are much more consolidated with that and I think the NAM is way off in it’s depiction of the southern stream. The globals will be interesting tonight! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted March 4, 2014 Share Posted March 4, 2014 NAM looks horrible. Yes, that CAD is set up, but 2m temps are cold only over NC with NO qpf up there. H5 looks like a disaster. Trends better for the CAD, but hell if there is nothing to fall into the cold air (only NC) then whats the point..lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted March 4, 2014 Share Posted March 4, 2014 NAM looks horrible. Yes, that CAD is set up, but 2m temps are cold only over NC with NO qpf up there. H5 looks like a disaster. Trends better for the CAD, but hell if there is nothing to fall into the cold air (only NC) then whats the point..lol Delta, I’m not sure why you would buy what the NAM is selling considering all of the global models look much better with respect to the southern system. Also, I imagine 2m temps would be below freezing in the CAD area’s of GA/SC if there was precip falling. Obviously, if there is no precip then we don’t wetbulb and 2m temps stay above freezing in spite of near perfect CAD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted March 4, 2014 Share Posted March 4, 2014 Delta, I’m not sure why you would buy what the NAM is selling considering all of the global models look much better with respect to the southern system. Also, I imagine 2m temps would be below freezing in the CAD area’s of GA/SC if there was precip falling. Obviously, if there is no precip then we don’t wetbulb and 2m temps stay above freezing in spite of near perfect CAD. Oh, I don't buy it at all....Hell to Naw...HAHAHA The NAM is almost worthless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted March 4, 2014 Share Posted March 4, 2014 Oh, I don't buy it at all....Hell to Naw...HAHAHA The NAM is almost worthless. Lol, yea, after this season I’m not sure why they even run the NAM. It generally will start to get a clue inside of 24hrs, but by that time we can use the RAP anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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