superjames1992 Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Usually 540 line. If it's sagging that's a really good indication that cold enough air for snow is wrapping in and the core is strong. Really ULLs will actually have a 540 line at it's core. Thanks! GEM is a big hit for GSO and points west all the way down to GSP. Don't give up yet. Edit: GEM is a HUGE hit for 85 and points west! Hopefully RaleighWx doesn't kill me for posting this, but it's sweet…. That almost looks March '09ish around here with the heavy precip axis. The 12z UKMET might imply a hit, too. Nice looking track and ULL, plus the HP holds in longer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 For 12Z on 3/6: -12Z UKMET yesterday had a 1034 high over SE Canada with virtually no CAD. In contrast, today's 12Z UKMET has a 1038 high just NW of Maine and with much stronger CAD (wedge signature quite evident). - 12Z JMA: similar comparison; 12Z yesterday had 1034; today's 12Z has 1036 with much more CAD. 12Z Doc up next. 12Z Euro's high will definitely be stronger based on the 48 hour map. Will also be looking for much better wedge signature at 72 hours vs. 0Z (12Z 3/6). Edit: confirmed. at 12Z 3/6, the high on today's 12Z Euro is back up to 1038 with more wedging than today's 0Z Euro, which had a 1035. Yesterday's 12Z Euro had 1038 also. So, 1038, 1035, 1038. Tonight's 18Z GFS and the various 0Z models will be key to see if this reversal back toward much stronger CAD/stronger NE high continues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Is the ULL showing up and strength ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 The 12z Euro looks like a big hit for central NC. Let me verify. EDIT: Well, it's borderline. A very heavy band sets up from around GSO towards RDU and pounds out a lot of QPF. Thicknesses are in the 540-543 range. 850s are around 0C. It's a lot colder than 00z. The clown spits out ~14" for Burlington and ~6" for GSO. 10.5" for RDU. It's hard to tell how much of that is snow... It would more likely be snow towards the western fringes as GSO is below 0C at 850 and thicknesses are ~540 dam. Surface temperatures are 31-32 during the heaviest precip. I would guess it would start out as either rain or wet snow with surface temperatures in the mid-30s, especially further east and then go over to snow. I think GSO is probably mostly, if not all snow, per this run, but areas further east are sketchy. Whatever, it's a HUGE step in the right direction! Rates probably suck, so you can't take 1.0" QPF and turn that into 10" SN, either. Obviously, even if this happens, placing the band at this point is going to be very difficult, so the specifics are largely irrelevant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jtomlinwx Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 12Z Euro Snowfall map shows 16" West of Raleigh. Surface temps marginal during the heaviest precip, but I wouldn't throw in the towel just yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 The 12z Euro looks like a big hit for central NC. Let me verify. EDIT: Well, it's borderline. A very heavy band sets up from around GSO towards RDU and pounds out a lot of QPF. Thicknesses are in the 540-543 range. 850s are around 0C. It's a lot colder than 00z. Of course RDU would be right on the border of snow and rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 outside of NC, I just don't see anyhing thats going to change my mind for wintry weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow dog Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 The 12z Euro looks like a big hit for central NC. Let me verify. EDIT: Well, it's borderline. A very heavy band sets up from around GSO towards RDU and pounds out a lot of QPF. Thicknesses are in the 540-543 range. 850s are around 0C. It's a lot colder than 00z. The clown spits out ~14" for Burlington and ~6" for GSO. 10.5" for RDU. It's hard to tell how much of that is snow... It would more likely be snow towards the western fringes as GSO is below 0C at 850 and thicknesses are ~540 dam. Surface temperatures are 31-32 during the heaviest precip. I would guess it would start out as either rain or wet snow with surface temperatures in the mid-30s, especially further east and then go over to snow. I think GSO is probably mostly, if not all snow, per this run, but areas further east are sketchy. Whatever, it's a HUGE step in the right direction! Rates probably suck, so you can't take 1.0" QPF and turn that into 10" SN, either. Obviously, even if this happens, placing the band at this point is going to be very difficult, so the specifics are largely irrelevant. How does the upstate do on this run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 This will likely be a classic March system meaning rain or snow and thats it. Surface cold air is retreating although there will be some. Dynamic cooling will be the big driver. Could be a situation where heavy snow falls with temps of 34-35 but still accumulations could be significant. This is a toughie. 12z guidance certainly looks more threatening. for parts of NC. This one has high bust potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cigrgd Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 How does the upstate do on this run? Not that well. Around a quarter-inch QPF. Nothing on the snowfall map west of Greenville (about 0.4" at GSP) but ramping up to around 4-5" in the Charlotte area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 outside of NC, I just don't see anyhing thats going to change my mind for wintry weather.You can't deny the changes in this mornings/ afternoon runs are trending colder. They kept getting warmer and worse yesterday , and they have started to reverse that trend, and if they keep going colder/ better high placement , it won't be a NC storm only! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 You can't deny the changes in this mornings/ afternoon runs are trending colder. They kept getting warmer and worse yesterday , and they have started to reverse that trend, and if they keep going colder/ better high placement , it won't be a NC storm only! Im not really denying it, I just don't believe in it yet. I mean, there could be some of SC effected, but I just don't see anywhere else being effected by wintry weather Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
btownheel Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 those temps are razor thin.....jeez. Love to see that high come in a touch stronger and punch us down 1-2C at the 850 line. Not sweating the 2M as much, dynamic cooling will overcome that with rates if the ULL verifies as modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Can we factor in a 2-3 degree warm bias on the euro and cash in now. I'd imagine 2-3 degrees colder would make this so it's not so dynamically driven. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Euro ENS mean is better than the 0z ENS mean, the SLP actually gets to the east of the HP this run so instead of running head into it or getting to the west of it it actually is a colder run, especially for an ensemble mean. At hour 90 850's and 0c 2m are running just south of I-40 then up through I-85, at 96 the 2m line drops through RDU, 850 retreats to ROA-RIC line, but much better than 0z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillerA Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Gsp disco e. The medium range period begins 12z Thursday with southwesterly flow aloft setting up across the southeast states as a southern stream upper shortwave progresses east across the Gulf Coast. Latest ooz run of the European model (ecmwf)/GFS/CMC agree that this upper wave will remain opened up as it reaches the southeast coast by 12z Friday. Upper pattern becomes nearly zonal by late Friday and remain that way through Sat before a northern stream upper trough crossing the region on Sunday. At the surface...a cold air damming wedge will set up across the region on Thursday as 1035mb high settles over New England. A surface low pressure will develop off the central Gulf Coast Wednesday night and tracks eastward into the southeast coast through Thursday....spreading Gulf moisture atop of the surface wedge across the region by early Thursday. The European model (ecmwf) shows better run to run consistency with precipitation spreading over the region Thursday into early Friday. However...the new GFS/CMC have considerably backed off on the precipitation amounts. In fact...the GFS has little to no quantitative precipitation forecast response mainly east of the mountains the CMC is similar to the dry GFS solution. In response to this...the wpc has lowered probability of precipitation and quantitative precipitation forecast from this event. Therefore...I have adjusted probability of precipitation to reflect the model trend...keeping the best chance probability of precipitation on Thursday night. As for the p-type...have gone with the nomogram weather tool based on the European model (ecmwf) partial thickness values. This gave US wintry mix across the western Carolinas mountains...foothills and the Piedmont mainly north of I-40 both on Wednesday night and Thursday night...with solid rain elsewhere. Any wintry precipitation will change over to rain by late Friday morning. Conditions should dry out by Friday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 I like the look of 12z CMC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 A lot of NC should like! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NGA WINTER Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Not a lot of north Georgia talk today likely means to warm? Am I correct? Is it gonna be close? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 I don't have a prollem with that look of the CMC and euro. I think some snow might sneak down into the upstate, but this is all W and C NC....I Think MS-GA and most of SC are out of luck this round. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Looked to me like the NAM took a step in the right direction from 12z. I still think an ULL is our best bet for snow chances Sent from my HTC One using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Looked to me like the NAM took a step in the right direction from 12z. I still think an ULL is our best bet for snow chances Sent from my HTC One Agreed, That needs to really close off or its going to be very tough to get snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 18z gfs has high @1040 at hour 45. Good trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 I am not sure I want anything else wintry this week. Already had to reschedule a church event for tonight to Thursday. Now that might get canceled again. If it is going to do something wintry it might as well be a big snow instead of this nuisance event we got today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Not sure why the 18z isn't colder on the surface. Looks like the high has better placement. Anyways @57 the low is slower and further SW it looks like it's close to cutting off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Wow 18z is going to be really close to an extremely good CAD event if precip can get working. 1028 high anchored in PA with a 1032 dropping into NY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Man this is getting good. It looks like the gfs is on to a trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 By 72 it looks like the high is retreating. A step in the right direction though as you could actually see a very well defined CAD setup there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Man this is getting good. It looks like the gfs is on to a trend. Would still like to see that low trend stronger and cutoff. This run it actually trended weaker which I don't like. I don't think the CAD will get it done this time around but I guess we shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Would still like to see that low trend stronger and cutoff. This run it actually trended weaker which I don't like. I don't think the CAD will get it done this time around but I guess we shall see. Yeah I agree. One or two millibars could make a huge difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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