superjames1992 Posted March 30, 2014 Share Posted March 30, 2014 I am going to the Martinsville race tomorrow. Looks like the rain should basically be over by noon, though there is a slight chance of showers thereafter. Actually, the NWS has a chance of rain/snow showers before 11 AM and I'm going to be there by 10:30 AM or so, so maybe I'll get lucky and see some flakes (probably not). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted March 30, 2014 Share Posted March 30, 2014 I am going to the Martinsville race tomorrow. Looks like the rain should basically be over by noon, though there is a slight chance of showers thereafter. Actually, the NWS has a chance of rain/snow showers before 11 AM and I'm going to be there by 10:30 AM or so, so maybe I'll get lucky and see some flakes (probably not). Probably so!! Bet you saw quite a few this morning.....from High Point all the way up! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted March 30, 2014 Share Posted March 30, 2014 I'm pretty positive the hurricane will find some way to avoid my area so no need to worry about that. I would take a tropical storm fay redux. I bet that was a fun storm here. That name is on the list again this year lol.May a cat3 find your house this summer, with lots of wind and tornadoes! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted March 30, 2014 Share Posted March 30, 2014 If your not ready for spring yet, read the Bismarck , ND local forecast , just for fun! Time sensitive, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted March 30, 2014 Share Posted March 30, 2014 The weather is so boring over the next 7 days. Just warm and sunny. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted March 30, 2014 Share Posted March 30, 2014 With the expected moderate to strong El Nino, I'm expecting a relatively quiet hurricane season overall and nothing like 2013 in terms of # of NS. I don't think Metal needs to worry about a cat. 5 hitting nearby this season. With the sig. El Nino, I'd expect both above average shear in the tropics and drier than normal air/high levels of SAL/dust coming off of Africa from the Sahara. Possible analogs: 1982, 1997. However, June might very well be above average as tends to occur during oncoming El Nino. I'm guessing 1-2 storms then. My guess is that there would be one major storm to at least threaten the CONUS at some point during the season but no more than that.Woah a moderate to strong El Nino. This season may be worse than last year. Last year a lot thought had the potential to be hyperactive, but we all know how that turned out. Like you said, El Nino years tend to have more early season activity, usually from non tropical origins. In addition to that, these developments tend to occur closer to land. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toxictwister00 Posted March 30, 2014 Share Posted March 30, 2014 With the expected moderate to strong El Nino, I'm expecting a relatively quiet hurricane season overall and nothing like 2013 in terms of # of NS. I don't think Metal needs to worry about a cat. 5 hitting nearby this season. With the sig. El Nino, I'd expect both above average shear in the tropics and drier than normal air/high levels of SAL/dust coming off of Africa from the Sahara. Possible analogs: 1982, 1997. However, June might very well be above average as tends to occur during oncoming El Nino. I'm guessing 1-2 storms then. My guess is that there would be one major storm to at least threaten the CONUS at some point during the season but no more than that. It may be a long boring hurricane season again if that happens. Ah well maybe we'll get lucky and have some interesting home brew storms to ignite some excitement like Hurricane Humberto (2007) for example. I'm pretty positive the hurricane will find some way to avoid my area so no need to worry about that. I would take a tropical storm fay redux. I bet that was a fun storm here. That name is on the list again this year lol. Fay was interesting, I'm surprised the FL panhandle wasn't buried deep underwater, I think some areas saw close to 3ft of rain. I don't remember Fay doing a whole lot of flooding here, maybe some brief flash flooding. What I do remember is walking to school and noticing how quickly the skies turned dark. I turned around and went back home and I'm glad I did. I found out we were under a Tornado Warning, about a minute or two after that the rain and strong winds blew through I would have been soaking wet had I kept walking on to school that morning. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted March 30, 2014 Share Posted March 30, 2014 It may be a long boring hurricane season again if that happens. Ah well maybe we'll get lucky and have some interesting home brew storms to ignite some excitement like Hurricane Humberto (2007) for example. It is good to discuss this now to try to reduce expectations and, thus, general whining down the road. However, that's probably impossible lol. If it turns out to be a very strong Nino like 1972, 1982, and 1997, the number of storms could easily be held down to only 7-8 with maybe only one major in the basin and perhaps no major US H hit, similar to those three years. Actually, I have found no moderate to strong Nino season with more than 12 storms going back to 1877, which is about 20 seasons. However, those 20 seasons did produce 9 major H US hits from 8 different storms. So, if the Nino turns out to be more run of the mill moderate to strong instead of very strong, there'd still be a halfway decent shot at a major US H hit though the odds would be no more than 50% in my mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted March 31, 2014 Share Posted March 31, 2014 The weather is so boring over the next 7 days. Just warm and sunny. I'm ready for some boring weather (can't believe i said that). Afterwards, bring on svr weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted March 31, 2014 Share Posted March 31, 2014 It is good to discuss this now to try to reduce expectations and, thus, general whining down the road. However, that's probably impossible lol. If it turns out to be a very strong Nino like 1972, 1982, and 1997, the number of storms could easily be held down to only 7-8 with maybe only one major in the basin and perhaps no major US H hit, similar to those three years. Actually, I have found no moderate to strong Nino season with more than 12 storms going back to 1877, which is about 20 seasons. However, those 20 seasons did produce 9 major H US hits from 8 different storms. So, if the Nino turns out to be more run of the mill moderate to strong instead of very strong, there'd still be a halfway decent shot at a major US H hit though the odds would be no more than 50% in my mind. I forgot to mention that the current -PDO regime will probably make it difficult to get a 1982 or 1997 type of Nino (super strong). Those were during a +PDO regime. However, based on the very strong subsurface warming, I think that moderate to strong is most likely to verify a la 1957-8, 1965-6, or 2009-10. So, that would favor a fairly quiet season as opposed to a pretty dead season. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted March 31, 2014 Share Posted March 31, 2014 Atleast UNC has a basketball team that can win, the womens team!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted March 31, 2014 Share Posted March 31, 2014 GaWx how would a Moderate to strong El Nino influence our weather? Wet and cool? Warm and wet? Cool and dry? Warm and dry? For this summer and fall? I see in 2009 there was an El Nino and we picked up 77 inches of rain according to Waycross weather station on wunder ground. Nearly 15 inches of rain fell in April. 12 of the 15 fell in the first 3 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted March 31, 2014 Share Posted March 31, 2014 GaWx how would a Moderate to strong El Nino influence our weather? Wet and cool? Warm and wet? Cool and dry? Warm and dry? For this summer and fall? I see in 2009 there was an El Nino and we picked up 77 inches of rain according to Waycross weather station on wunder ground. Nearly 15 inches of rain fell in April. 12 of the 15 fell in the first 3 days. I'd lean toward a wet and cool summer assuming the moderate to strong El Nino is maturing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted March 31, 2014 Share Posted March 31, 2014 70 or so miles between the snow and a confirmed tornado on the ground in Minnesota. Thought this was pretty cool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crapper Jim Posted April 1, 2014 Share Posted April 1, 2014 May a cat3 find your house this summer, with lots of wind and tornadoes! Mack works for American Greetings (Cards). That's sooo sweet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted April 1, 2014 Share Posted April 1, 2014 Mack works for American Greetings (Cards). That's sooo sweet. Trust me, if that were to happen to Metallica666, he would think it was a holiday! That's all he talks about wanting to see: hurricanes, feeder bands, tornadoes , right front quadrant, severe tstorms and winds and I almost forgot, blown NWS weather forecasts! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted April 1, 2014 Share Posted April 1, 2014 Mack is funny. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted April 1, 2014 Share Posted April 1, 2014 Mack is funny.Lol he is! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted April 1, 2014 Share Posted April 1, 2014 They've been running Dumb and Dumber on TBS or Comedy Central over the weekend, and in between important TV, I found myself watching every chance I got, lol! Just makes me want to see the sequel even more! One of y'all said it got pushed back to a fall release, I haven't heard anything about it in awhile? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted April 1, 2014 Share Posted April 1, 2014 They've been running Dumb and Dumber on TBS or Comedy Central over the weekend, and in between important TV, I found myself watching every chance I got, lol! Just makes me want to see the sequel even more! One of y'all said it got pushed back to a fall release, I haven't heard anything about it in awhile? November baby! We're there! Bevo is leading a SE get-together for a viewing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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