CAD_Wedge_NC Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 New month... new thread. Post those banter thoughts here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 I'm going to go ahead and congratulate you AL, N. GA, Upstate SC, Western NC, and VA folks on the big dog for next week. You guys are going to get hammered. For us in the Triangle area and eastern NC/SC, we'll likely be mostly on the outside looking in on this one. These upper lows rarely work out well for us. The usually end up tracking right over us or too close to us, bringing warming aloft. It was still a good winter, though. Can't complain at all about 2 4" snowstorms! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 I like the 0z Euro. 850mb temps are supportive for snow, and light precipitation is around. Only problem I see is surface temps which are +4-8c. http://climate.cod.edu/data/forecast/ECMWF/00/US/ecmwfUS_850_temp_168.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Lookout won't joking about the weird CAD for the 3/3 event. Though technically it didn't start till the 12z run yesterday of the GFS... 6z yesterday didn't have it. Every run since 12z yesterday has been indicating rain to freezing rain for the CAD regions of NC for 3/3. Temps go from an average of 50 to mid 20s in roughly 6 hours with the probability of atleast => .25" ice. But honestly looking at the 925 temps would almost be supportive of Rain to sleet instead of ZR. The windshift is prettty amazing too. SSW around 10-15 to NNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 I'm going to go ahead and congratulate you AL, N. GA, Upstate SC, Western NC, and VA folks on the big dog for next week. You guys are going to get hammered. For us in the Triangle area and eastern NC/SC, we'll likely be mostly on the outside looking in on this one. These upper lows rarely work out well for us. The usually end up tracking right over us or too close to us, bringing warming aloft. It was still a good winter, though. Can't complain at all about 2 4" snowstorms! Agree, not sure why ULL's favor CLT more than us but they definitely do. It will be fun to watch a big dog crush someone, hopefully. Hopefully a March 93 redux. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 I'm going to go ahead and congratulate you AL, N. GA, Upstate SC, Western NC, and VA folks on the big dog for next week. You guys are going to get hammered. For us in the Triangle area and eastern NC/SC, we'll likely be mostly on the outside looking in on this one. These upper lows rarely work out well for us. The usually end up tracking right over us or too close to us, bringing warming aloft. It was still a good winter, though. Can't complain at all about 2 4" snowstorms! With the type of pattern we've been in this year, I also think we've been lucky to get what we've got so far. Eastern NC has done well too but again think there was some luck for them. The pattern this year almost reminds me of an extended 1993(from march) pattern that favors the western areas with miller A type systems. Like you, I cannot complain about this year. Really amazed especially because of the indices. With this particular storm there will be a lot of negative factors(time of year is really the biggest) for this to be a nice winter event even for our western friends. Just remember what happened to DC last year. Not saying it will happen now but there will be a strong cutoff and a lot of heartbreaks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Eh, I dont know about all that. I dont remember march 93 being that great for clt. And remember you Raleigh guys were saying the same thing about the last storm in February...and you turned out pretty good. I think next week is completely up in the air right now. From great, to cold cold rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 I've been reading over stuff from last night and this A M, and am confused ! Is the damming cold enough to give any areas frozen precip? I see GaWx saying things are good and strong wedging, and some seem to be saying the upper level low is our only hope? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Eh, I dont know about all that. I dont remember march 93 being that great for clt. And remember you Raleigh guys were saying the same thing about the last storm in February...and you turned out pretty good. I think next week is completely up in the air right now. From great, to cold cold rain.93 was not that great for CLT! I was in Gastonia at the time, and remember waiting till atleast afternoon for the changeover to snow. It finally did and there was a clap of thunder while I was playing in it, but 3-4 inches max, maybe less! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted March 1, 2014 Author Share Posted March 1, 2014 We did well in the '93 event. Heavy sleet that morning changed to heavy snow before lunch and we had thunder-snow most of the afternoon and around 8 inches storm total. It was not as good as it was a little north and west of me, but I would take a repeat of that one any day. Also, the cold that followed the storm kept the snow around for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Maybe the euro will just show cold rain here in a minute, and I can get some sleep and say adios to this threat! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Well the Euro was a kick in the baguettes! That was our only hope. Really feel like it's time to cancel winter! The 30 degree drop in temps over 6 hrs or so in NC, and a little glaze , will be our last wintry event, enjoy Brick and ncweather! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Don't give up yet. Far too early to stick a fork in it. Get within 48-72 hours than if its no good well so be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Monday looks better and better while later on looks worse and worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Yeah I think clt is done.....the last two days of ensembles made me think against my better judgment on climo. But I think today's trends are telling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 The Euro has definitely not been consistent all winter. Not sure who told you that Brick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bevo Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 The Euro has definitely not been consistent all winter. Not sure who told you that Brick. Careful - you'll upset the Euro loyalists who'll throw a 97% stat at you thinking that settles it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 The Euro might not be right all the time but it has deffinitely been more consistent from run to run than the GFS. The GFS has usually been all over the place from run to run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Careful - you'll upset the Euro loyalists who'll throw a 97% stat at you thinking that settles it.That was only with the past storm. And if they bring that up, I'll throw in tropical storm Debby 2012. No one can forget that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 The Euro might not be right all the time but it has deffinitely been more consistent from run to run than the GFS. The GFS has usually been all over the place from run to run.I think it just seems like that because it's run 4 times a day. If you just look at the 00z and 12z runs of the GFS, you won't notice huge shifts each run. It's just like how the HRRR and Rap are run every hour and each run is slightly different from the previous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 None of the models have exactly set the world on fire this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 GFS was trying to break Mach 1 with it's progressive pattern, nice to see it's trying to be productive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bevo Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 The Euro might not be right all the time but it has deffinitely been more consistent from run to run than the GFS. The GFS has usually been all over the place from run to run. It has performed well in split flows - which happened with the last storm. I can spew several examples of the Euro crapping the bed, but we both know that it doesn't make a difference to model molesters. **EDIT** Speaking in terms of the most recent storm, it didn't do me any favors. That was only with the past storm. And if they bring that up, I'll throw in tropical storm Debby 2012. No one can forget that. It's a pointless battle to choose honestly. As burns said, none have been consistently stellar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 I think someone mentioned earlier, this 3/3 system kind of flew under the radar and now 2 days and the cold air and storm keeps trending south with each run. Hopefully come Monday , this will be the same for the 3/6 system! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Bevo, if someone was born on a leap year on February 29th, how would that work? Age every four years? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Bevo, if someone was born on a leap year on February 29th, how would that work? Age every four years?Yes! If you were born in 96 and this happened to be a leap year, you would be 4 1/2! Sounds like you may have been born on a leap year!! . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Wouldn't mind being at this Chicago Blackhawks game tonight , nice weather for an outdoor game Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 I think someone mentioned earlier, this 3/3 system kind of flew under the radar and now 2 days and the cold air and storm keeps trending south with each run. Hopefully come Monday , this will be the same for the 3/6 system! Looking at the analogs and having climatology on our side, I feel Monday's system will over perform and be even further south than what's being shown. I expect a further south trend on the 0z runs... as for the end week system, there's so much energy floating around I expect a lot of swings and teeth grinding over the next few days. Will probably be a nowcast situation IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Yes! If you were born in 96 and this happened to be a leap year, you would be 4 1/2! Sounds like you may have been born on a leap year!! . :lmao: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 I've got my spork out! The GFS sucks! All bad trends today! Stick a spork in this threat and winter ! Bring on spring and DST! Next winter shod be awesomer with a Niño , maybe some blocking??? GaWx, tell me it's not time to panic ???! About to meltdown... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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