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March 2014 Observations


metalicwx366

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ZR?

 

Dps and wb drop or rise?

Not sure what you mean. I was referring to the gfs tonight over northeast georgia/upstate. It was right too. 31.4 here with freezing rain for the last couple of hours. Started freezing on the trees/bushes/fence a little after 11:30. A light but nice little glaze on elevated surfaces and cars.

 

nam, fwiw, was quite a bit too warm. It was too warm by at least 4 degrees. Actually I'm giving it a bit too much credit probably. It has my location dropping to 35 only by 4am. Right now I'm supposed to be 38. So it's been 7 degrees too warm the last couple of hours.

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Sun broke out here and temps sky rocketed!! It's 57 and climbing! Forecast was 53! Really not excited down here. Sitting around all day waiting for precip to start in the evening. The March sun angle will fight off the dry wedge, seriously ! I bet we make it to 50 tomorrow , this is on the record! Lol. If you have to wait for the wedge to strengthen during the storm, way too much can wrong!

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Sun broke out here and temps sky rocketed!! It's 57 and climbing! Forecast was 53! Really not excited down here. Sitting around all day waiting for precip to start in the evening. The March sun angle will fight off the dry wedge, seriously ! I bet we make it to 50 tomorrow , this is on the record! Lol. If you have to wait for the wedge to strengthen during the storm, way too much can wrong!

It's only 42 here. Haha!
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Really not liking the temps in WNC right now...HRRR ingesting temps and warming the surface tonight compared to previous runs. 10% chance for winter precip for the Charlotte area IMO. 

 

 

We should have some good radiation cooling tonight looking at cloud cover maps.  I wouldn't be to concerned.

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Still in the mid 50s here (54) Clouds doing their dirty work keeping us nice and mild tonight, tremendously slowing down radiational cooling. If we get below say 40-45 degree range I'll be surprised. Weird week, yesterday we were well below the forecast high and today we were well above the forecast high. :axe:

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ILM Obs today, 3/7...

 

 

46.2 °F

Feels Like 38 °F
Dew Point
46 °F
Wind:
Speed / Dir
24.0 mph from WNW
Wind Gust
27.8 mph
Just Shy of a Inch of QPF during the Day today.....
 
Water Temp Ocean....
48.9
 
as of 1230 PM Friday...no significant changes are needed with this
early afternoon update. I have cancelled the high surf advisory
based on a review of imagery from area surf cams which suggest
breaking waves are averaging five feet or less. Also the Wind
Advisory along the NC coast has been allowed to expire. Radar shows
plenty of showers still swirling around the approaching upper level
low. Rainfall amounts are quite light so I have trimmed back quantitative precipitation forecast
amounts despite quite high probability of precipitation continuing for areas north of a line
from Kingstree-Conway-Myrtle Beach. No changes to temperatures.
Previous discussion from 1000 am follows...

In yesterday's battle of models regarding surface low position for
this morning...the GFS easily won versus the NAM. The surface low is
analyzed nearly 100 miles east of Cape Fear currently...shown by
buoy wind directions and by a well-defined low cloud swirl on
visible satellite imagery. Thick clouds extend all the way back into
Georgia and northern Florida under the upper level low. This upper
system currently centered on the Georgia/SC border west of Charleston
will swing across the coastal Carolinas this afternoon...then
offshore by sunset.

Radar composites show plenty of showers across the Carolinas a
result of moist isentropic lift on the 295-300k Theta surfaces
(generally 6000-10000 feet agl) plus very modest convective
instability above the warm nose centered about 8000 feet up. This
convective instability should not become large enough for a
thunderstorm threat this afternoon...but should fuel deeper and more
vigorous showers than might develop simply due to the thermal
advection/isentropic processes lower in the atmosphere. The biggest
change to the forecast this morning was to increase probability of precipitation to near 100
percent from interior Horry County north and west through the Pee
Dee region...I-95 corridor...and into Whiteville and Elizabethtown.
Probability of precipitation for the coastal Cape Fear region have been raised into the
80-90 percent range. Along the Santee river where showers are just
ending now...isentropic downglide may actually develop shortly
making it tough for additional rain to occur today. I show a
diminishing trend in probability of precipitation there through the day.

Warmer air has advected onshore in the Wilmington area this morning
where surface temperatures are currently in the lower to middle 50s.
This relatively mild air should be very short-lived. As the surface
low pushes northeastward and pulls the very cold wedge airmass
across interior North Carolina southward look for temperatures to
fall back into the 40s here. Elsewhere across the eastern Carolinas
look for temperatures to only budge a few degrees today...with highs
in the lower to middle 40s for most areas.

We are hard at work on a summary of wind gusts and rainfall totals
from last night. Look for it to be posted as a public information
statement and on social media later this morning.

 
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Here is why this storm was so devastating for my maple trees.  The recent warm weather had brought out the first signs of life.  For these trees it is basically round groups of what will become the seed pods that drop just before the actual leaves come out.  Each one of the scores of clusters at the end of each branch served as a perfect place for ice to accumulate way more than if it had just been a branch in mid winter state.  The picture shows what I am talking about.  Melting was already well underway.  Notice how the branches themselves were already pretty clear of ice, either knocked off by the fall or melted. Not so for the tips of every branch. The cumulative weight of all that extra ice at the very ends of the branches brought them down.

 

large.jpg

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78.

 

Thinking about stripping off my clothes and taking a naked sprint across the 418.

I know nobody whats to see my old arse... but most concerned I might die of a heart

attack and get found half-eaten by the recent Starling swarms.

 

Thinking this out.

 

:)

Random thoughts(acts) like these could be detrimental to society  :P  

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well I guess winter is over.  GSP has taken the snow for sunday night and monday out of the forecast.  I think we're done guys.  I was hoping for one more just 1-3 inches.  this winter has been better than the last two but I still wanted more snow or a couple of good storms not these half inch or 1 inch storms.  better than nothing though.  we'll track some next winter have a great summer.    :cry:

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