Tennessee Valley Winter Storm March 2-3

[valkhorn]

I just heard major thunder in Knoxville. We're in the upper 30s here.

[Stovepipe]

Schools closed in Knox county. Nothing frozen in my back yard.

[nrgjeff]

Better to close than have midday gridlock when it develops during the day and everyone leaves at once. Did that for 4 hours with a toddler here. It was the little snow before the Big One. It is the little ones that bite!

[Stovepipe]

Better to close than have midday gridlock when it develops during the day and everyone leaves at once. Did that for 4 hours with a toddler here. It was the little snow before the Big One. It is the little ones that bite!

 

Oh I agree 100%, very glad they closed.  I'm still dealing with vehicle damage from the last time they didn't close and we had a bumper cars school pickup.

[mempho]

Can anyone explain how Me

Memphis busted again for the sake of our own sanity?

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[Stovepipe]

Can anyone explain how Me

Memphis busted again for the sake of our own sanity?

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I'm very sorry to hear that Mempho and I don't have an explanation.  I saw Curt's pictures over at tnwx, did the suburbs get a nice hit?  Was it just the metro that busted?

[mempho]

I'm very sorry to hear that Mempho and I don't have an explanation. I saw Curt's pictures over at tnwx, did the suburbs get a nice hit? Was it just the metro that busted?

The northern suburbs, yes, as well as West Memphis and the MS Delta and parts of downtown but the center of the snowdome withheld the onslaught.

It defied all meteorology. None of the better minds can explain it yet. Pics of FedEx drones patrolling the snowdome on Facebook and this time, I have no logic left to counter with, but I'd like to know before I join the masses of people who believe in the Pyramid/Snowdome/I40 heaters/FedEx/bluffs/etc.

I mean, this just wasn't a bust, it was the last in a series of such episodes bordering on the unexplainable. I happen to know that some local mets are confounded by this.

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[Stovepipe]

The northern suburbs, yes, as well as West Memphis and the MS Delta and parts of downtown but the center of the snowdome withheld the onslaught.

It defied all meteorology. None of the better minds can explain it yet. Pics of FedEx drones patrolling the snowdome on Facebook and this time, I have no logic left to counter with, but I'd like to know before I join the masses of people who believe in the Pyramid/Snowdome/I40 heaters/FedEx/bluffs/etc.

I mean, this just wasn't a bust, it was the last in a series of such episodes bordering on the unexplainable. I happen to know that some local mets are confounded by this.

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The bluffs!

 

[mempho]

The bluffs!

LOL, Yeh. This one is difficult. Now, I wish it would snow big just so I can know that there's not some force. Oh well, there's more to life than this. I just really doubt whether we'll ever get appreciable again.

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[nrgjeff]

Memphis and Nashville were always on the border of where the arctic front set up. Burbs got ice; perhaps some of it was urban heat island in the cities proper. Believe low press moving through put the brakes on the front. This was not a classic Southern ice storm with two days of gentle overruning. Synoptic low spun up instead. That low also helped deepen the cold farther northwest. Sleet accumulations are quite incredible.

[Carvers Gap]

Memphis and Nashville were always on the border of where the arctic front set up. Burbs got ice; perhaps some of it was urban heat island in the cities proper. Believe low press moving through put the brakes on the front. This was not a classic Southern ice storm with two days of gentle overruning. Synoptic low spun up instead. That low also helped deepen the cold farther northwest. Sleet accumulations are quite incredible.

Agree with the low spinning up. Looked like the system would slide across, but it put the brakes on the cold front. Also, big dry slot made a difference in the eastern valley, especially north. Here @ TRI we have had snow w/ every cold snap since October. Not always a lot, but some. Sixth straight month with at least a trace at the airport.

[mempho]

Memphis and Nashville were always on the border of where the arctic front set up. Burbs got ice; perhaps some of it was urban heat island in the cities proper. Believe low press moving through put the brakes on the front. This was not a classic Southern ice storm with two days of gentle overruning. Synoptic low spun up instead. That low also helped deepen the cold farther northwest. Sleet accumulations are quite incredible.

 

Memphis and Nashville were always on the border of where the arctic front set up. Burbs got ice; perhaps some of it was urban heat island in the cities proper. Believe low press moving through put the brakes on the front. This was not a classic Southern ice storm with two days of gentle overruning. Synoptic low spun up instead. That low also helped deepen the cold farther northwest. Sleet accumulations are quite incredible.

 

 

Agree with the low spinning up. Looked like the system would slide across, but it put the brakes on the cold front. Also, big dry slot made a difference in the eastern valley, especially north. Here @ TRI we have had snow w/ every cold snap since October. Not always a lot, but some. Sixth straight month with at least a trace at the airport.

 

 

Guys, Here's the deal.  The surface front actually made it well through Memphis before the front stalled.  KMEM was under a consistent CAA regime at the surface.  On the hourly obs, KMEM reported consistent N or NE winds since the 8 am observation on Sunday morning.  KMEM dropped to 35.1 before noon and briefly bounced to 36 in the next hour.  Winds over the next 17 hours of the calendar day averaged a consistent 15mph from the northeast and north.  At 6pm, the temp was 33 and it held there and even increased to 34 and back to 33 and then back to 34 despite the constant onslaught of North winds.

 

Now, as far as cold air source goes, just about 12 miles to the north and northeast, it was below freezing.  In fact, it was in about 28 just 30 miles to the north by 8pm.

 

There was zero low-level WAA and there was not even a relaxation of the CAA during the entire event.  It was constant.  The fact that the front hesitated well to the south shouldn't have had an effect. 

 

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     

[nrgjeff]

Thinking of the atmosphere in 3 dimensions, warm air advection aloft was strong. The front is like a plane diagonally slanting from the ground north and up. The plane was stopped by the strong WAA despite CAA at the surface. Actually if temps don't drop it is not really CAA, just a cold north wind. This is simplified. I call it billiard ball meteorology, but it works. The main wave did not eject out until Sunday night. Behind it CAA could then commence. I'm just ready for spring.

[mempho]

Thinking of the atmosphere in 3 dimensions, warm air advection aloft was strong. The front is like a plane diagonally slanting from the ground north and up. The plane was stopped by the strong WAA despite CAA at the surface. Actually if temps don't drop it is not really CAA, just a cold north wind. This is simplified. I call it billiard ball meteorology, but it works. The main wave did not eject out until Sunday night. Behind it CAA could then commence. I'm just ready for spring.

I understand what you're saying. The front itself did not move.

Now, is the cold air coming in from the north simply providing lift and the convection we saw? I mean, it's obviously going somewhere.... I assume that's what was causing the convection.

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[jmundie]

It makes more sense for nashville than Memphis. Nashville sits in a basin about 3-5 hundred feet lower in elevation than the surrounding burbs and exurbs. Locations 4 miles from me as the crow flies had warning criteria ice accumulation and dropped to freezing around 10 PM. But it's a solid 150 feet in elevation from my location to there. Freezing line for the duration of the heavy precip from the synoptic wave was around 700 feet. I'm at 475 near downtown. Joelton, which is maybe 8 miles to my northwest is near 1000 feet and had serious icing and sleet accums. We had wet streets and a little sleet til the CAA began in earnest around 4 am. And areas ne of me and due southeast all had warning criteria ice above 750 feet. It literally made a c shape around the urban core of nashville.

I really don't understand the urban core of Memphis unless the urban heat island combined with the rain falling through the warm layer aloft was enough to keep y'all a degree or two above the less dense areas. I can't believe I am upset about an ice storm bust - but metro nashville has had one verified winter storm warning in the last 12 winter seasons. I wanted a good excuse to miss work. As if stood - I let tdot do their thing and drove in at 9.

[mempho]

It makes more sense for nashville than Memphis. Nashville sits in a basin about 3-5 hundred feet lower in elevation than the surrounding burbs and exurbs. Locations 4 miles from me as the crow flies had warning criteria ice accumulation and dropped to freezing around 10 PM. But it's a solid 150 feet in elevation from my location to there. Freezing line for the duration of the heavy precip from the synoptic wave was around 700 feet. I'm at 475 near downtown. Joelton, which is maybe 8 miles to my northwest is near 1000 feet and had serious icing and sleet accums. We had wet streets and a little sleet til the CAA began in earnest around 4 am. And areas ne of me and due southeast all had warning criteria ice above 750 feet. It literally made a c shape around the urban core of nashville.

I really don't understand the urban core of Memphis unless the urban heat island combined with the rain falling through the warm layer aloft was enough to keep y'all a degree or two above the less dense areas. I can't believe I am upset about an ice storm bust - but metro nashville has had one verified winter storm warning in the last 12 winter seasons. I wanted a good excuse to miss work. As if stood - I let tdot do their thing and drove in at 9.

I don't think anyone understands it. The Music Highway region that we see today is nothing like what we see from old pictures and record books.

I have been saying for years that it will change. I don't see any change coming. I don't know what is holding us back, but it's becoming very clear from results that this area is no longer capable of producing significant snowfall.

In Memphis, it's almost like the airport has some great heat crystal if you looked at the other night.

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[Stovepipe]

18z RGEM Freezing Rain total:

 

 

Sleet:

 

 

Snow:

 

 

So what do you guys think about the RGEM's call on this one?  Obviously it didn't pick up on the fine grained issues with big urban areas, but to me it generally did a good job with precip types and areas affected.  I'm saying that just based on the OBs I saw from around the state.  I know Paris ended up with about 4.5 inches of "stuff" on the ground.  Probably a half inch of ice, 4 inches of sleet and a little snow on top.

 

The Euro, despite the lack of faith in it's snow maps, did well I thought if you assumed that those maps could be sleet or snow.  It had the ice depiction before hand.  I don't know what to think about the NAM.  The meteograms/text data before the event downplayed the situation for places like BNA, that seems to have been correct.  Alan's snow maps were WAY off as we knew they would be (which is odd because his maps are usually in line with Earl's and others).  I didn't pay much attention to SREF this time so can't comment on that.

 

What is your impression of the modeling for this one?