Carvers Gap Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 It appears that the Euro ruled the roost again on this system, and the RAP is the "go to" again w/ strong support from RGEM. The Canadian also did well. Have to remember this for next winter. And yes, Jax. The models are trending south as the event approaches. DT mentioned that has been the pattern this winter for his area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Temp profile.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted March 2, 2014 Author Share Posted March 2, 2014 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0163 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0548 PM CST SUN MAR 02 2014 AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF KY...NWRN TN...SRN WV CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION VALID 022348Z - 030545Z SUMMARY...FREEZING RAIN THREAT SHOULD EXPAND SWD/EWD THIS EVENING FROM NWRN TN....ENEWD ACROSS KY INTO SRN WV. MIXED P-TYPES MAY BECOME MORE PREVALENT WITH NWD EXTENT...WHERE A MIX OF SLEET AND/OR FREEZING RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE AS LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION PERSISTS. AN EVENTUAL CHANGEOVER TO SNOW ACROSS WRN/NRN KY IS EXPECTED LATE SUN EVENING INTO EARLY MON MORNING. DISCUSSION...BROAD SWATH OF LIGHT TO MODERATE PRECIPITATION PRIMARILY ALONG/S OF THE OH VALLEY IS CO-LOCATED WITH AN AXIS OF 0.75-1 INCH PW. SFC COLD FRONT HAS REACHED THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS...AND AT LEAST MODEST POST-FRONTAL LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION IS ONGOING...WITH THE SFC FREEZING LINE ROUGHLY BISECTING KY FROM SW-NE AS OF 23Z. TEMPERATURE PROFILES ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT A WARM NOSE CENTERED ABOVE 1.5 KM AGL. FREEZING RAIN SHOULD BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD INTO THIS EVENING AS BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO COOL. THIS WILL OCCUR CONTEMPORANEOUSLY WITH INCREASING PRECIPITATION RATES /0.1-0.25 IN PER HR/ AS AN UPSTREAM LEAD WAVE OVER THE ARKLATEX APPROACHES THE MID-MS VALLEY...AND 1.5-3 KM AGL LAYER FRONTOGENESIS STRENGTHENS. SLEET MAY BECOME MORE COMMON WITH TIME /ESPECIALLY IN CNTRL/NRN KY/ AS WARM NOSE BECOMES LESS PRONOUNCED AND SFC TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE 20S F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathertree4u Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Thunder sleet reported in Portland TN. Where is weathertree? Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Just got in there was lighting in Hendersonville, didn't hear any thunder; I recall the same dynamic system in 1994, I remember I was outside most of the night in the stuff it was just amazing especially when ice started to accumulate, with no electricity, the lightning is amazing; sitting at 35 here we need a drop of a couple degrees Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestTennWX Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Keep the updates coming...for as long as you can. Thanks for letting us know like Stove said. Good luck! Looks like you all have a long ways to go. Might be a historic storm. Just glad I could contribute to the thread in some sort, as long as I have electricity I will give periodic updates- we are up to a half inch of ice now, within the last half hour or so it has changed to hard, blowing sleet, mixed with some zr....a real mess. I am actually surprised we still have power. Got the wood stove fired up, preparing the best we can. I'll snap some photos tonight and try to post them if there is an obs thread and I still have power, hope everyone out there stays safe! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted March 3, 2014 Author Share Posted March 3, 2014 Just glad I could contribute to the thread in some sort, as long as I have electricity I will give periodic updates- we are up to a half inch of ice now, within the last half hour or so it has changed to hard, blowing sleet, mixed with some zr....a real mess. I am actually surprised we still have power. Got the wood stove fired up, preparing the best we can. I'll snap some photos tonight and try to post them if there is an obs thread and I still have power, hope everyone out there stays safe! I read on the spotter page Clarksville is getting hammered,you in that area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Witness Protection Program Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 It is because the NWS office in Nashville has lost face a time or two before this Winter so they are playing it safe; imo this is not what they are paid to do, I would rather have the public over prepared for something than under, as it stands now, for someone not familiar at all with the weather, taking the forecast at face value, will not be thinking it is anything to worry about. I have been through too many ice storms before and know the lasting impact they can have. It is a dangerous game they are playing. I'm pretty much fed up with several of the NWS offices being too conservative until the last minute. Have had 3 trips this winter that would have been in rain/ice/snow events (9 and 12 hour drives) where I would have been screwed if I had made reservations the day before or stuck with the most direct routes based on their morning predictions. Instead I'm usually going with WUnderground or Accuweather if there is a difference in predictions, seems like the private websites are making the better calls earlier (which is especially annoying since I hate Accuweather and their hype schtick.) NWS might eventually get it right, a few hours before the event, but that isn't always good enough. Especially with a potential ice storm and the difference being potential power outages, perhaps for days. Kind of like if the NHC would have downplayed hurricanes. Evacuation vs preparation isn't quite comparable, but the principle is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathertree4u Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 I read on the spotter page Clarksville is getting hammered,you in that area? Where is the spotter page? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathertree4u Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 I'm pretty much fed up with several of the NWS offices being too conservative until the last minute. Have had 3 trips this winter that would have been in rain/ice/snow events (9 and 12 hour drives) where I would have been screwed if I had made reservations the day before or stuck with the most direct routes based on their morning predictions. Instead I'm usually going with WUnderground or Accuweather if there is a difference in predictions, seems like the private websites are making the better calls earlier (which is especially annoying since I hate Accuweather and their hype schtick.) NWS might eventually get it right, a few hours before the event, but that isn't always good enough. Especially with a potential ice storm and the difference being potential power outages, perhaps for days. Kind of like if the NHC would have downplayed hurricanes. Evacuation vs preparation isn't quite comparable, but the principle is. I agree! I think if this is as bad as it looks like it could be there needs to be heads on the table at the NWS in Nashville; you don't wait till day of and issue a Winter Storm Warning no less than 6 hours until the event, the area should have had a winter storm watch followed by the warning, screw trying to save face at the NWS by being conservative. Like you said, if there had been advanced warning people could have gotten needed supplies to last a few days with no juice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted March 3, 2014 Author Share Posted March 3, 2014 Where is the spotter page? https://www.facebook.com/hashtag/tspotter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted March 3, 2014 Author Share Posted March 3, 2014 Just hit 32 at my house Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted March 3, 2014 Author Share Posted March 3, 2014 http://www.srh.noaa.gov/productview.php?pil=MEMRWROHX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted March 3, 2014 Author Share Posted March 3, 2014 http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=meg&product=RWR&issuedby=MEG Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tabbycat Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 I stole this from the western states forum. I've forgotten what y'all taught me with our last snow. This means how hard it will be raining/snowing/freezing rain at 1:00 a.m. EST, right? So West and Middle TN will be getting a lot of freezing rain and/or sleet at that time? Or forecasted anyway? I'm sick so we'll pretend that's why I forgot. I did take notes, but a very large glass of tea went all over my desk and those notes pretty much fell apart. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestTennWX Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 I read on the spotter page Clarksville is getting hammered,you in that area? No, I'm in the extreme tip of Northwest Tennessee, only a few miles from the KY border, seeing more lightning and hearing thunder now, wind has picked up considerably too....temp at 27 now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Temp is down to 48 here. 66 in Knox, sharp gradient. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 No, I'm in the extreme tip of Northwest Tennessee, only a few miles from the KY border, seeing more lightning and hearing thunder now, wind has picked up considerably too....temp at 27 now Hopefully you switch to snow soon, but models have been hinting at your area getting 3-4 inches of sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestTennWX Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Hopefully you switch to snow soon, but models have been hinting at your area getting 3-4 inches of sleet. That would correlate with what we are seeing here now, we have been back/forth with the sleet and zr, but here in the past 45 min, we are getting more sleet here, heavy and blowing. Thanks to all of you for the updates as well, still a long way to go tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Dekalb county schools closed tomorrow, that's what my teachers were hoping for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Upper Cumberland getting in on the action now according to radarscope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Looking at the RAP and radar. Looks like the finger that points to where precip will go is set right on the KY/TN border. Reality is a tad south of the model at this point by 25-50 miles. Speaking of heavy axis of precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted March 3, 2014 Author Share Posted March 3, 2014 Looking at the RAP and radar. Looks like the finger that points to where precip will go is set right on the KY/TN border. Reality is a tad south of the model at this point by 25-50 miles. Speaking of heavy axis of precip. I was wondering the same thing,then if you look back a couple frames it looks like it is now,maybe to fast?or lost..lol..Not a good thing though when the rap falls behind,starting to wonder if we should trust it Edit: keep forgetting it comes out a hr or so later,so its more than likely close to being correct,i guess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Apparently the upper level low in OK/TX is stronger than modeled and could really add to totals when it moves through. The Paducah NWS is noticing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted March 3, 2014 Author Share Posted March 3, 2014 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0165 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0855 PM CST SUN MAR 02 2014 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN AR...NWRN MS...SWRN AND MIDDLE TN CONCERNING...FREEZING RAIN VALID 030255Z - 030730Z SUMMARY...FREEZING RAIN /OCCASIONALLY MIXED WITH SLEET IN CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS/ WILL DEVELOP SWD INTO THE OVERNIGHT WITH PRECIPITATION RATES OF 0.10-0.25 IN/HR EXPECTED. DISCUSSION...AN EXTENSIVE SWATH OF PRECIPITATION WILL PERSIST AMIDST AN INCREASING AREAL EXTENT OF SURFACE TEMPERATURES AOB FREEZING. THIS PRECIPITATION APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT DOWNSTREAM OF A PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER OK. THE SURFACE WET-BULB FREEZING LINE AT 02Z EXTENDED FROM NEAR BNA TO MEM TO LIT. THIS LINE WILL GRADUALLY MOVE SWD IN RESPONSE TO WEAK LOW-LEVEL CAA AND SLIGHT BACKING OF SURFACE WINDS AS A SUBTLE SURFACE CYCLONE NEAR THE NERN LA/W-CNTRL MS BORDER SHIFTS NEWD. A PRONOUNCED ABOVE-FREEZING WARM NOSE BELOW 700 MB SAMPLED IN 00Z BNA/SHV RAOBS WILL REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF FREEZING RAIN AS THE DOMINANT PTYPE. HOWEVER...EMBEDDED CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS WITH ABUNDANT LIGHTNING SHOULD SUPPORT MIXING WITH SLEET AT TIMES. HEAVIER FREEZING RAIN WILL SUBSIDE FROM WEST TO EAST EARLY MON MORNING AS THE DRY SLOT INVOF ARKLATEX SHIFTS EWD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted March 3, 2014 Author Share Posted March 3, 2014 Obviously the models didnt pick up on the strenght of that convective line down south,its gonna kill this storm and the HRRR is picking up on this very well Edit;Gonna be another swing and miss for us,should have known..lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Obviously the models didnt pick up on the strenght of that convective line down south,its gonna kill this storm and the HRRR is picking up on this very well Edit;Gonna be another swing and miss for us,should have known..lol What exactly do you think is going to miss you? Upstream radar has hours of heavy precip headed your way, The Nashville area is at or below freezing and OHX just put this out. NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN1000 PM CST SUN MAR 2 2014 .UPDATE...OUR WINTER STORM IS PRETTY MUCH UNFOLDING AS EXPECTED, WITH THE FREEZING LINE NOW LOCATED NEAR A LINE EXTENDING FROM LOBELVILLE...TO NASHVILLE...TO LAFAYETTE. OVER THE NORTHWEST AND ALONG THE HIGHLAND RIM, THERE HAVE BEEN SOME EVENING REPORTS OF ICE ACCUMULATIONS, DUE TO FREEZING RAIN, AROUND 1/4 INCH, WITH SLEET ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES IN THE DOVER/CLARKSVILLE AREA. STILL EXPECT WINTRY PRECIP TO CONTINUE PUSHING EASTWARD OVERNIGHT AS THE COLD AIR CONTINUES SPREADING IN. NO CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted March 3, 2014 Author Share Posted March 3, 2014 Unlike the models showed it clearing out by mid morning its gone after 3 now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted March 3, 2014 Author Share Posted March 3, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted March 3, 2014 Author Share Posted March 3, 2014 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0167 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1150 PM CST SUN MAR 02 2014 AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF KY...FAR SWRN WV AND VA CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION VALID 030550Z - 031045Z SUMMARY...PRECIPITATION RATES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE INTO EARLY MON MORNING ACROSS KY...WITH THE GREATEST THREAT FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL CONCENTRATED ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF KY. MIXED P-TYPES FEATURING PREDOMINATELY SLEET/FREEZING RAIN SHOULD PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF THE SRN HALF OF KY...ALTHOUGH A TRANSITION TO SNOW MAY OCCUR BY 10-11Z. DISCUSSION...A BROAD SWATH OF PRECIPITATION PERSISTS ACROSS KY WITHIN A WARM CONVEYOR PRECEDING AN UPPER WAVE EJECTING EWD OUT OF THE SRN PLAINS. OBSERVATIONS FROM 05Z INDICATE MIXED P-TYPES ACROSS MOST OF THE STATE...WHILE SNOWFALL IS BECOMING MORE COMMON NEAR THE OH VALLEY. ALTHOUGH BOUNDARY LAYER COLD ADVECTION IS LIKELY TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HRS...WARM ADVECTION ABOVE ROUGHLY 1 KM AGL SHOULD MAINTAIN AN ABOVE-FREEZING WARM NOSE AND RESULTANT MIXED P-TYPES ACROSS MUCH OF KY THROUGH 08-09Z. AS THE UPPER WAVE APPROACHES THE AREA...ACCOMPANYING LLJ WILL SHIFT E OF THE REGION AND AID IN COOLING TEMPERATURE PROFILES ALOFT...WITH P-TYPE INCREASINGLY BECOMING SNOW FROM NW-SE THROUGH 11Z. PRECIPITATION RATES ARE LIKELY TO BE MAINTAINED OR GRADUALLY INCREASE /SNOWFALL APPROACHING 1 IN/HR/ AS A BAND OF ASCENT ACCOMPANYING THE PRIMARY UPPER WAVE ARRIVES. HOWEVER...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A DRY SLOT IN ITS WAKE QUICKLY PROGRESSING EWD...AND SHOULD SUPPORT A SIGNIFICANT REDUCTION IN PRECIPITATION RATES FROM W-E. CURRENT EXTRAPOLATION OF THIS FEATURE HAS IT REACHING THE I-65 CORRIDOR IN THE 09-10Z TIME FRAME. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mempho Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0165 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0855 PM CST SUN MAR 02 2014 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN AR...NWRN MS...SWRN AND MIDDLE TN CONCERNING...FREEZING RAIN VALID 030255Z - 030730Z SUMMARY...FREEZING RAIN /OCCASIONALLY MIXED WITH SLEET IN CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS/ WILL DEVELOP SWD INTO THE OVERNIGHT WITH PRECIPITATION RATES OF 0.10-0.25 IN/HR EXPECTED. DISCUSSION...AN EXTENSIVE SWATH OF PRECIPITATION WILL PERSIST AMIDST AN INCREASING AREAL EXTENT OF SURFACE TEMPERATURES AOB FREEZING. THIS PRECIPITATION APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT DOWNSTREAM OF A PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER OK. THE SURFACE WET-BULB FREEZING LINE AT 02Z EXTENDED FROM NEAR BNA TO MEM TO LIT. THIS LINE WILL GRADUALLY MOVE SWD IN RESPONSE TO WEAK LOW-LEVEL CAA AND SLIGHT BACKING OF SURFACE WINDS AS A SUBTLE SURFACE CYCLONE NEAR THE NERN LA/W-CNTRL MS BORDER SHIFTS NEWD. A PRONOUNCED ABOVE-FREEZING WARM NOSE BELOW 700 MB SAMPLED IN 00Z BNA/SHV RAOBS WILL REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF FREEZING RAIN AS THE DOMINANT PTYPE. HOWEVER...EMBEDDED CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS WITH ABUNDANT LIGHTNING SHOULD SUPPORT MIXING WITH SLEET AT TIMES. HEAVIER FREEZING RAIN WILL SUBSIDE FROM WEST TO EAST EARLY MON MORNING AS THE DRY SLOT INVOF ARKLATEX SHIFTS EWD. None of this actually occurred south of I-40. The event was nearly a total bust here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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