Carvers Gap Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 WWAs hoisted for the central and northern Valley in the east. Warnings for SW VA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 I would think Gate City is in the mix now per the 18z NAM. I think so too Carvers, I'm just not sure to what extent right now. The NAM has me more concerned. Any further shift southeast will put KTRI in the game too. I think MRX will have to put out Winter Storm Warnings for Wise and Lee counties and extend that down towards John or somewhere along that line. All of the Tri-Cities should be put under a WWA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 DANG! Does this include ZR as well? If not, can you find one? Stove, precip on the 18z NAM is south of 12z. I am growing concerned here in Kingsport that we go ice pretty quickly. The 12z Euro painted 3-4" in Sullivan Co per DT's map and corrected algorithm. Something seems odd to me with the NAM output. The meteograms based off the buffkit data don't show a heck of a lot of frozen for Jackson or Nashville, relatively speaking. Nashville shows about half an inch of snow, half an inch of sleet, and a little over two tenths of an inch of ice. Nothing to sneeze at mind you, but the precip/temp maps led me to believe those numbers would have been considerably higher. Then there is that crazy snow map. Of course we are in RAP mode now so it doesn't matter but still that was odd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 I think so too Carvers, I'm just not sure to what extent right now. The NAM has me more concerned. Any further shift southeast will put KTRI in the game too. I think MRX will have to put out Winter Storm Warnings for Wise and Lee counties and extend that down towards John or somewhere along that line. All of the Tri-Cities should be put under a WWA. You are under a warning now. Yikes! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Lol! Nevermind on that last post as MRX put out the warnings as I posted that. I agree with what they put out at least with placement of advisories. Haven't read what's in them though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Something seems odd to me with the NAM output. The meteograms based off the buffkit data don't show a heck of a lot of frozen for Jackson or Nashville, relatively speaking. Nashville shows about half an inch of snow, half an inch of sleet, and a little over two tenths of an inch of ice. Nothing to sneeze at mind you, but the precip/temp maps led me to believe those numbers would have been considerably higher. Then there is that crazy snow map. Of course we are in RAP mode now so it doesn't matter but still that was odd. Looks like MRX took note. @ this point I don't even look at snow amounts...just precip types and qpf. Definitely sagging south at this point and the cold air rushing in is very impressive. Going to be an all out mess tomorrow based on this afternoon's trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Someone is going to bust, and bust badly for northern middle TN. DT is going off the corrected algorithm Euro obviously and the NWS is still being pretty conservative. I hope there are snow surprises. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Latest RAP 18 hour snowfall: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Instantweather and Earl Barker are both way less on snow on the 18z NAM again. For some reason Alan's must be doing all frozen as snow. It has 1-3 across most of the state, 4 in far NW Tennessee. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Instantweather and Earl Barker are both way less on snow on the 18z NAM again. For some reason Alan's must be doing all frozen as snow. It has 1-3 across most of the state, 4 in far NW Tennessee. Historically Alan's snow maps were not that different, I don't know what has been going on the past day or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 RAP snow on instant weather is also far far less than that map is showing. Generally under 1 inch of snow all areas except far NW Tennessee through 18 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Just talked to my folks in Paris. Currently getting very heavy rain, thunder and lightning, and temp of 28 degrees. They've not observed ice yet but I don't think they are out walking around in it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted March 2, 2014 Author Share Posted March 2, 2014 Look at the DBZ on the Ky.Tn line Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 18z RGEM Freezing Rain total: Sleet: Snow: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Would anyone care to check and see if surface temps are on target or ahead of schedule? My guess is they are dropping faster than expected. My concern is that you have models playing catch-up. They are trending south and east with every run. If they are playing catch-up we are going to have folks caught in the northern Valley counties. I think MRX sees this. About lunch today, they made no bones about the fact that things were about to get bad. edit: Would also be interesting to see the trends on the RAP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Ice on power lines now in Paris. Reading on other forums, it seems Dyersburg, Tiptonville, Clarksville, Palmersville, and Hopkinsville all have ice, substantial in some cases. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Would anyone care to check and see if surface temps are on target or ahead of schedule? My guess is they are dropping faster than expected. My concern is that you have models playing catch-up. They are trending south and east with every run. If they are playing catch-up we are going to have folks caught in the northern Valley counties. I think MRX sees this. About lunch today, they made no bones about the fact that things were about to get bad. edit: Would also be interesting to see the trends on the RAP. On the 12z NAM the surface freezing line at 5 pm was just at the very tip of NW Tennessee. On 18z it was only a tiny bit further south of that at 5 pm. In reality it's below freezing as far east as Clarksville. Another interesting note, Nashville is 36 and reporting unknown precip, which is usually a sleet mix. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestTennWX Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Over a quarter inch of ice here in Union City, building quickly now. 30 degrees at my place and have seen a couple of flashes of lightning and a rumble of thunder here and there...just got back from my father's helping get his generator ready- a few cars off the road already and the power lines are starting to sag significantly....looks like it might be a long night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 On the 12z NAM the surface freezing line at 5 pm was just at the very tip of NW Tennessee. On 18z it was only a tiny bit further south of that at 5 pm. In reality it's below freezing as far east as Clarksville. Another interesting note, Nashville is 36 and reporting unknown precip, which is usually a sleet mix. Excellent information. I will be watching your obs now. Be sure to let us know when the temp begins that rapid descent that stations to your west experienced. I just keep thinking that cold HP in the Plains is meaning business. If I had to draw up a picture of an ice storm for areas west of the Apps...this is textbook. For it to be a true storm for the eastern Valley, the high would have to been more eastward but right now...it may hit the northern counties of the eastern Valley anyway. To what extent is only a guess as models are 100 miles on either side of the TN border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Over a quarter inch of ice here in Union City, building quickly now. 30 degrees at my place and have seen a couple of flashes of lightning and a rumble of thunder here and there...just got back from my father's helping get his generator ready- a few cars off the road already and the power lines are starting to sag significantly....looks like it might be a long night. Thanks for checking in with us, hang in there buddy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Surprised that OHX didn't issue a warning for areas like Jamestown and Cookeville. Models seem to be easily showing warning criteria there but it appears OHX has kept the advisory in place and seems to only be stressing their NW areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Over a quarter inch of ice here in Union City, building quickly now. 30 degrees at my place and have seen a couple of flashes of lightning and a rumble of thunder here and there...just got back from my father's helping get his generator ready- a few cars off the road already and the power lines are starting to sag significantly....looks like it might be a long night. Keep the updates coming...for as long as you can. Thanks for letting us know like Stove said. Good luck! Looks like you all have a long ways to go. Might be a historic storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Excellent information. I will be watching your obs now. Be sure to let us know when the temp begins that rapid descent that stations to your west experienced. I just keep thinking that cold HP in the Plains is meaning business. If I had to draw up a picture of an ice storm for areas west of the Apps...this is textbook. For it to be a true storm for the eastern Valley, the high would have to been more eastward but right now...it may hit the northern counties of the eastern Valley anyway. To what extent is only a guess as models are 100 miles on either side of the TN border. Front is through here, it's fallen from 63 to 52 in the last hour and wins are NNW. 40 miles NW of me in Somerset it's down to 36. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Look how big this system is. Huge. Check out west TN and what is to come...You folks out there charge your cell phones. We need some pics if the lights go out! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mjhutche Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Steady (heavy at times) rain with some mix here in clarksville. Couple episodes of thunder with very little ice accumulation as of yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 With the heavy precip, it'll take 30 degree or lower temps to pile up the ice. You guys should be well into the 20s soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Impressive winter products map, especially for March! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Thunder sleet reported in Portland TN. Where is weathertree? Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted March 2, 2014 Author Share Posted March 2, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted March 2, 2014 Author Share Posted March 2, 2014 The 2nd wave which the models had going N of the Valley is still going through the Valley,this is all snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.