jaxjagman Posted March 2, 2014 Author Share Posted March 2, 2014 Something to keep an eye on.The RAP is showing a piece of energy strung out over E/Arkansas,the other models are showing the piece N of the Valley,it should be headed due E ,extra bonus?We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 MRX just released a statement on FB. Looks like they are expecting 1/4-1/2" of ice before it turns to snow in area of TRI. With temps crashing quickly out west, bet this is getting everyone's attention. Strong HP in the Plains means business. What is advisory criteria? Edit: MRX has since adjusted the graphic. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Something to keep an eye on.The RAP is showing a piece of energy strung out over E/Arkansas,the other models are showing the piece N of the Valley,it should be headed due E ,extra bonus?We'll see. RAP Model Fields Experimental.png Also of note, the RAP is ramming the cold air all the way to the Apps before the precip moves out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vol Man Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Latest map from MRX...still only Special Weather Statement for ETN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Latest map from MRX...still only Special Weather Statement for ETNI would think that is going to change with the afternoon update. Prob looking at an advisory or warning....not sure if we meet warning criteria but I bet SW VA does. Temps are really crashing on the RAP.Edit: MRX really banging the drum. Just released a second graphic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted March 2, 2014 Author Share Posted March 2, 2014 Also of note, the RAP is ramming the cold air all the way to the Apps before the precip moves out. Models have no clue with the cold level cold pool.Just looking at my text off the Euro it shows the low temp Tuesday morn now at 6 degrees Edit:for BNA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Latest map from MRX...still only Special Weather Statement for ETN Better hang on to that graphic...it has already changed. Man. Think they overdid TRI on the first one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted March 2, 2014 Author Share Posted March 2, 2014 Mesoscale Discussion 161No graphic currently available MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0161 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0144 PM CST SUN MAR 02 2014 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND NERN AR / MO BOOTHEEL / NWRN PART OF WRN TN CONCERNING...FREEZING RAIN VALID 021944Z - 030015Z SUMMARY...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS AND SUB-FREEZING SURFACE TEMPS WILL RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT FREEZING RAIN RATES LIKELY RANGING 0.02-0.25 INCH PER HOUR THIS AFTERNOON. DISCUSSION...19Z SURFACE OBSERVATIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE FREEZING LINE SLOWLY MOVING SWD ACROSS CNTRL AR. THE 18Z LZK RAOB SHOWED A 1 KM DEEP WEDGE OF COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WITH A 12 DEG C WARM NOSE LOCATED AROUND 870 MB YIELDING A THERMAL PROFILE SUPPORTIVE OF FREEZING RAIN AS THE PRIMARY P-TYPE. LOW-LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL LIKELY OVERWHELM THE INFLUENCE OF DIURNAL HEATING AND FACILITATE A CHANGEOVER FROM RAIN TO FREEZING RAIN IN THE GREATER LITTLE ROCK METRO OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. RADAR MOSAIC EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS A BLOSSOMING AREA OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS FROM SWRN AR NEWD THROUGH CNTRL AR. A PLUME OF STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES EMANATING FROM A SRN PLAINS EML AND RELATIVELY HIGH PW /1.25 INCH/ WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AS FORCING FOR ASCENT THROUGH A DEEP LAYER INTENSIFIES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. CONSEQUENTLY...WIDESPREAD FREEZING RAIN RATES OF 0.05-0.20 INCH PER HOUR ARE LIKELY. CONVECTIVELY-AIDED BURSTS MAY RESULT IN RATES EXCEEDING 0.25 INCH PER HOUR FOR AN HOUR OR SO IN LOCALIZED AREAS THROUGH 00Z. ..SMITH.. 03/02/2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Any obs from the NW border counties? I'm wondering if Radarscope is accurate with the ptype here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 .25 ice is ice storm warning criteria. I'm sure MRX isn't changing a thing though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestTennWX Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Any obs from the NW border counties? I'm wondering if Radarscope is accurate with the ptype here. Stove, that looks to be quite accurate to me....just over .10 inch of zr on elevated surfaces now, sleet starting to mix in here in Union City Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted March 2, 2014 Author Share Posted March 2, 2014 Any obs from the NW border counties? I'm wondering if Radarscope is accurate with the ptype here. Probably ZR WAA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathertree4u Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Probably ZR Latest SPC U.S. Composite Map.png WAA I don't like the way this is looking guys looks almost like 1994 we have a lot of precip coming in from the southwest, just like in 1994, and it will be dark soon, this looks like a major ice storm for West/Middle TN - thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Your best bet is hoping the upper levels are cold enough to get it to sleet or snow before massive amounts of ice pile up. ZR at 31 or so isn't that bad. But zr when it falls into the 20s becomes devastating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 West Tennessee will likely fall into the teens during the event. With thunder storms possible. The deformation band is also tracking further south than originally thought per MEG. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Some of the text data showed zr and sleet with temps in the low to mid 20s, qpf over an inch..... You guys better hope its sleet........ Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted March 2, 2014 Author Share Posted March 2, 2014 West Tennessee will likely fall into the teens during the event. With thunder storms possible. The deformation band is also tracking further south than originally thought per MEG. Hopefuly we get more snow SREF has BNA at 3" now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 That was from last night, should have mentioned it. I haven't looked today, been golfing. Anyone have latest data from the NAM? Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 I don't like the way this is looking guys looks almost like 1994 we have a lot of precip coming in from the southwest, just like in 1994, and it will be dark soon, this looks like a major ice storm for West/Middle TN - thoughts? Looks brutal Nashville and points westward. Major ice storm underway. Models have been all over this. Looks like they will verify. Be sure to take some pics and post observations. BTW ya'll, do we need an obs thread for this storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 18z NAM is moving south. Precip axis has sagged south about 100 miles at least just eyeballing it. You all better hope it's(the trend) wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted March 2, 2014 Author Share Posted March 2, 2014 That was from last night, should have mentioned it. I haven't looked today, been golfing. Anyone have latest data from the NAM? Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk check your mail Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted March 2, 2014 Author Share Posted March 2, 2014 The NAM shifted again to the S,it want to dump 2ft in the NW Valley,thats insane Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 18z NAM is moving south. Precip axis has sagged south about 100 miles at least just eyeballing it. You all better hope it's wrong. Carvers, does that translate further east? Thanks for the pm Jax. Better head for cover down that way if the NAM is right. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Jax I would say congrats on finally getting a big winter storm but this one might be devastating with the ice. This is off topic but look at the thunderstorms in TX/OK moving into the cold air! Never seen anything like that! This is a very dynamic system Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted March 2, 2014 Author Share Posted March 2, 2014 Jax I would say congrats on finally getting a big winter storm but this one might be devastating with the ice. This is off topic but look at the thunderstorms in TX/OK moving into the cold air! Never seen anything like that! This is a very dynamic system Starting to crank up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted March 2, 2014 Author Share Posted March 2, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Carvers, does that translate further east? Thanks for the pm Jax. Better head for cover down that way if the NAM is right. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk 12z axis of heaviest precip w/ the pivot at Memphis to West Virginia is now 100 miles south of that. Axis now sits just north of TN border. ALL of southwest VA is in play now. 12z GFS did the same. We are going to get some ZR/sleet in the Tri-Cities it appears... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Jax I would say congrats on finally getting a big winter storm but this one might be devastating with the ice. This is off topic but look at the thunderstorms in TX/OK moving into the cold air! Never seen anything like that! This is a very dynamic system I would think Gate City is in the mix now per the 18z NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 I don't think I've ever seen an Alan Huffman snow clown look like this before. 18z NAM 24 hour snowfall: 30 inches of snow in KY lol. Obviously the algorithm is confused but it's interesting to see that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 I don't think I've ever seen an Alan Huffman snow clown look like this before. 18z NAM 24 hour snowfall: 30 inches of snow in KY lol. Obviously the algorithm is confused but it's interesting to see that. DANG! Does this include ZR as well? If not, can you find one? Stove, precip on the 18z NAM is south of 12z. I am growing concerned here in Kingsport that we go ice pretty quickly. The 12z Euro painted 3-4" in Sullivan Co per DT's map and corrected algorithm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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