tnweathernut Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Again per DT on FB. 0z GFS Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 0z GFS snow: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Jax. If you all get any of what the NAM, RGEM, and GFS are cooking-up...you will be a hero. You started the thread. Stuff of legends. Nice map, Stove! This would really make the winter of 13-14 memorable. Epic cold and snow for just about everyone. What time is it? RAP time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted March 2, 2014 Author Share Posted March 2, 2014 Again per DT on FB. 0z GFS Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Doesnt support snow for us,but that would be awesome for you guys.I'm expecting the worse for us,there is no way the 850-700 supports snow other than the back end Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Check out the 18hr surface temp gradient on the RAP model courtesy of TwisterData...For the record, Jax, I think you get the full bag of frozen mess and a lot of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted March 2, 2014 Author Share Posted March 2, 2014 Jax. If you all get any of what the NAM, RGEM, and GFS are cooking-up...you will be a hero. You started the thread. Stuff of legends. Nice map, Stove! This would really make the winter of 13-14 memorable. Epic cold and snow for just about everyone. What time is it? RAP time. Nope.You need to look at the levels especially the 850-750,anything above 1555 melts,this is nothing but a ice storm for us with some back end flurrIes,we need this to go further S,i like I40N though and NW Edit:meant to say 850-700,but either way its not going to do the job.I would be thrilled to hear some thunder sleet though ,never heard this before..lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valkhorn Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 I haven't seen the turkeys around my house forage so I think Knoxville might be in the clear for now. I'll keep a turkey watch up in the next day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Nope.You need to look at the levels especially the 850-750,anything above 1555 melts,this is nothing but a ice storm for us with some back end flurrIes,we need this to go further S,i like I40N though and NW Agree with ice....major storm though. Probably the biggest of the season nation-wide in terms of area. Make sure you have a back-up heat source. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 OHX snow: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted March 2, 2014 Author Share Posted March 2, 2014 OHX snow: Seems right to me but i'd double the amounts up north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tabbycat Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Jax, good luck with your ice. Keep it over that way, though! I'm crossing my fingers it turns to snow instead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Instant Weather Maps are way different than the ones posted in here for the same runs of the NAM. They show hardly any snow in Tennessee and generally 4-6 in Kentucky. Much the same with the Earl Barker maps. I suspect whatever site those maps were from must have made all frozen precip into snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 JKL fires a shot across MRX's bow in regards to no winter storm warning for the KY border counties as they upgrade their southern tier to Winter Storm Warnings. ALL THINGS TOGETHER...THE INCREASE IN QPF TRANSLATED TO AN INCREASEIN THE SNOW TOTALS ACROSS THE NORTH...THE SNOW AND ICE IN THECENTRAL CWA...AND THE ICE IN THE SOUTHERN CWA. ENDED UP WITH ICEAMOUNTS AT OR ABOVE WARNING CRITERIA ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN TIER OFCOUNTIES...SO WENT AHEAD AND UPGRADED THE ADVISORY TO A WARNING. WASSURPRISED TO SEE THAT DESPITE THE ABUNDANT AMOUNT OF FZRA THESURROUNDING OFFICES HAD PUT IN THEIR FORECASTS...THEY DID NOT FOLLOWSUIT TO INCREASE THEIR ICE ACCUMULATIONS. IN FACT...JKL AND RLX ARETHE ONLY TWO CWA/S WITH ANY ICE ACCUMULATION AT ALL. FEEL QUITESTRONGLY THAT THIS SET UP SUPPORTS A SIGNIFICANT THREAT OF ICEACCUMULATION...SO WILL LEAVE MY FORECAST AS IS...INCLUDING THEUPGRADE TO A WARNING FROM THE ONGOING ADVISORY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach B Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 JKL fires a shot across MRX's bow in regards to no winter storm warning for the KY border counties as they upgrade their southern tier to Winter Storm Warnings. You don't see that very often in an AFD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 They are probably referring to OHX as well. I'm surprised there's not a much bigger Winter Storm Warning for more of Middle Tennessee. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathertree4u Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 They are probably referring to OHX as well. I'm surprised there's not a much bigger Winter Storm Warning for more of Middle Tennessee. It is because the NWS office in Nashville has lost face a time or two before this Winter so they are playing it safe; imo this is not what they are paid to do, I would rather have the public over prepared for something than under, as it stands now, for someone not familiar at all with the weather, taking the forecast at face value, will not be thinking it is anything to worry about. I have been through too many ice storms before and know the lasting impact they can have. It is a dangerous game they are playing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Supposedly the euro without the flawed snow algorithm has northern middle under the gun for ice then several inches of snow. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Even before they raised their advisory counties to a warning due to increased qpf, JKL said they were likely to due to the fact that while none of the individual parts of the storm were forecast at the time to exceed warning criteria in their southern counties, the combination of them was enough to warrant a warning. I'm surprised OHX hasn't followed that line of thinking. Even the WPC had two 60-70% area of > than .5 inches of ice around Nashville and both north and east of there. 80% to exceed .25, which is warning criteria. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathertree4u Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Even before they raised their advisory counties to a warning due to increased qpf, JKL said they were likely to due to the fact that while none of the individual parts of the storm were forecast at the time to exceed warning criteria in their southern counties, the combination of them was enough to warrant a warning. I'm surprised OHX hasn't followed that line of thinking. Even the WPC had two 60-70% area of > than .5 inches of ice around Nashville and both north and east of there. 80% to exceed .25, which is warning criteria. Yea I agree with all that has been said; I am curious though, do they have access to any other data that we don't or could they be looking at something we are not? Often times they work in concert with other offices, it appears that this was not the case at this point as other offices are erring on the side of caution in that they feel it is best to warn of worst case scenario instead of the least case scenario Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dwagner88 Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 KMEM reported a 20 degree temperature drop in 1 hour this morning. From 63 to 43. That is impressive. I wonder what the record minimum high is for March there? They may get close to it tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted March 2, 2014 Author Share Posted March 2, 2014 just looked at MEM,they are already already down to 34 per OBS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted March 2, 2014 Author Share Posted March 2, 2014 Looks like a stronger cold pool like we talked about last night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathertree4u Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Looks like a stronger cold pool like we talked about last night Yea, seems that the front has come through here north of town, the wind is out of the NW now seems to be dropping. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted March 2, 2014 Author Share Posted March 2, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted March 2, 2014 Author Share Posted March 2, 2014 totally wild,we've dropped about 22 degrees in the last 40 min 39 and falling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted March 2, 2014 Author Share Posted March 2, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathertree4u Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 totally wild,we've dropped about 22 degrees in the last 40 min 39 and falling 36 north of town with bulk precip yet to come Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted March 2, 2014 Author Share Posted March 2, 2014 Nashville just changed it to a WSWarn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted March 2, 2014 Author Share Posted March 2, 2014 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN1137 AM CST SUN MAR 2 2014 ...SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIKELY OVER PORTIONS OFMIDDLE TENNESSEE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING... ...ONE TO TWO INCHES OF SNOW ARE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN HALFOF MIDDLE TENNESSEE LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY... .FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD AS THEDAY PROGRESSES BEHIND A COLD FRONT. A CHANGE OVER FROM RAIN TOFREEZING RAIN WILL BEGIN ACROSS NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE MIDSTATE BY NOON...THEN SPREAD SOUTHWARD AND EASTWARD TONIGHT.SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL OCCUR...BETWEEN ONE QUARTER UPTO ONE INCH...MAINLY FOR LOCATIONS NORTHWEST OF A LAWRENCEBURG...TO LEBANON...TO LAFAYETTE LINE...WITH THE LARGER ICE ACCUMULATIONSNORTH AND WEST OF NASHVILLE. AREAS ACROSS SOUTHEAST MIDDLETENNESSEE AND THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU REGION CAN EXPECT ONE TENTHTO ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH OF ICE. AS TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO DROP LATE TONIGHT AND INTO MONDAY...THE FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE TO SLEET AND THEN SNOWACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES...WITH AN EXPECTATION OF AROUND ONETO TWO INCHES OF ACCUMULATION IN AREAS GENERALLY NORTH OFINTERSTATE 40. EVERYONE IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE SHOULD STAY ADVISED OF THE LATESTUPDATES TO THIS DEVELOPING WINTER WEATHER SITUATION. TNZ008-009-027>030-058>060-062-093-094-030300-/O.UPG.KOHX.WW.Y.0013.140303T0300Z-140303T1800Z//O.EXB.KOHX.WS.W.0003.140303T0000Z-140303T1800Z/SUMNER-MACON-DAVIDSON-WILSON-TROUSDALE-SMITH-LEWIS-WILLIAMSON-MAURY-RUTHERFORD-WAYNE-LAWRENCE-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...GALLATIN...LAFAYETTE...NASHVILLE...LEBANON...MOUNT JULIET...HARTSVILLE...CARTHAGE...HOHENWALD...FRANKLIN...BRENTWOOD...COLUMBIA...MURFREESBORO...WAYNESBORO...LAWRENCEBURG1137 AM CST SUN MAR 2 2014 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOONCST MONDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NASHVILLE HAS ISSUED A WINTERSTORM WARNING FOR ICE AND SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PMTHIS EVENING TO NOON CST MONDAY. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ISNO LONGER IN EFFECT. * GEOGRAPHIC AREA...FOR LOCATIONS GENERALLY IN THE AREA FROM LAWRENCEBURG...TO NASHVILLE...TO LAFAYETTE...TO GAINESBORO...TO LAWRENCEBURG. * ICE ACCUMULATIONS...AROUND ONE QUARTER TO AROUND FOURTH TENTHS OF AN INCH. * SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...FROM A DUSTING NEAR THE ALABAMA BORDER... UP TO AN INCH IN THE NASHVILLE METRO AREA...AND UP TO TWO INCHES FOR LOCATIONS APPROACHING THE KENTUCKY BORDER. * TIMING...6 PM TONIGHT THROUGH NOON ON MONDAY. * MAIN IMPACT...HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE DUE TO FREEZING RAIN...SLEET...AND SNOW. TREES AND POWER LINES COULD EXPERIENCE ICE ACCUMULATIONS...RESULTING IN POWER OUTAGES. * OTHER IMPACTS...WITH NORTH WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH...THIS COULD WORSEN ICE ACCUMULATION PROBLEMS ON TRESS AND POWER LINES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted March 2, 2014 Author Share Posted March 2, 2014 12z gfs went bonkers with ice at BNA 1.3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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