John1122 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 In addition to the freezing rain on Pack's map, the RGEM has this for snow, And this for sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Great updates, John....Looks like middle and west TN are going to get their winter after all. Interesting to see MRX jump into the mix as well. Mentioned the northern and central valleys(eastern Valley). I don't see ice per say at this moment but they have to see the trend for today which is bringing in the cold front further south and east. INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ONEIDA...LA FOLLETTE...TAZEWELL... SNEEDVILLE...ROGERSVILLE...KINGSPORT...BRISTOL...MOUNTAIN CITY... WARTBURG...CLINTON...OAK RIDGE...MAYNARDVILLE...RUTLEDGE... MORRISTOWN...GREENEVILLE...CEDAR CREEK...JOHNSON CITY...ERWIN... ELIZABETHTON...ROAN MOUNTAIN...KINGSTON...KNOXVILLE...DANDRIDGE... JONESVILLE...WISE...NORTON...GATE CITY...LEBANON...ABINGDON 341 PM EST SAT MAR 1 2014 ...LIGHT ICE AND SNOW ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE ALONG THE NORTHERN CUMBERLAND PLATEAU AND ALONG THE CUMBERLAND MOUNTAINS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING... A FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING COLDER AIR AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET ALONG THE NORTHERN CUMBERLAND PLATEAU AND THE CUMBERLAND MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING. SOME LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO ONE-TENTH OF AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHERN PLATEAU AND THE CUMBERLAND MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...WITH SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN SOME LOCATIONS. ADDITIONALLY...AS COLDER AIR FILTERS IN ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM...A CHANGE OF TO SNOW IS EXPECTED...WHICH WILL RESULT IN SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF AROUND HALF AN INCH TO 1 INCH ALONG THE PLATEAU AND UP TO 1 TO 2 INCHES ACROSS SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA. THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME MORE WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS BY DAYBREAK ON MONDAY....AND COULD LINGER THROUGHOUT THE DAY DUE TO THE PERSISTENT SUBFREEZING CONDITIONS. SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN VALLEY...INCLUDING THE INTERSTATE 40 AND INTERSTATE 81 CORRIDORS. SOME ROADS COULD BECOME HAZARDOUS IN THESE AREAS BY THE RUSH HOUR TRAFFIC TIME PERIOD ON MONDAY. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE EXACT TIMING OF THE ARRIVAL OF THE SUBFREEZING AIR...WHICH WILL HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON THE TYPE OF PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS AND HOW WIDESPREAD ANY POTENTIAL ICING AND SNOWFALL WILL BE. PLEASE MONITOR THE LATEST FORECAST INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ON THIS DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 For posterity...lit up like a Christmas tree. What a winter! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 If the 00 and 06 model suite keeps with the slightly further south cold trend, I expect WWA north of 40 in East Tennessee. I expect Winter Storm Warnings west of the Plateau, including Nashville, with continued warnings elsewhere. MRX has already added a tier of counties east and south to the sps with each successive update. Some models are actually showing winter storm warning criteria for the Northern Plateau, actually, all except for the GFS likely are showing that right now. But MRX doesn't issue winter storm warnings here, as we saw with the last event as I got 8 inches of snow in 6 hours under a winter weather advisory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 If the 00 and 06 model suite keeps with the slightly further south cold trend, I expect WWA north of 40 in East Tennessee. I expect Winter Storm Warnings west of the Plateau, including Nashville, with continued warnings elsewhere. MRX has already added a tier of counties east and south to the sps with each successive update. Some models are actually showing winter storm warning criteria for the Northern Plateau, actually, all except for the GFS likely are showing that right now. But MRX doesn't issue winter storm warnings here, as we saw with the last event as I got 8 inches of snow in 6 hours under a winter weather advisory. The axis of heavy precip has sagged south somewhat (I used big time in an earlier post...prob too strong a word and edited) since yesterday or maybe the model is just "seeing" it more clearly....18z GFS Here is the time frame modeled yesterday (72 hr precip @ 96). Here is the same time frame modeled today (72 hr precip @ 72). Not all of this is frozen, especially as one heads east. It is not hard to see that northern west and middle TN could get hammered. Compliments of TwisterData. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Latest WPC snow zone, this was along the Ohio River last issuance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted March 1, 2014 Author Share Posted March 1, 2014 The EurO went nuts today for BNA 0.94 ICE .17 SNOW Edit:Memphis almost 1.5" ice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted March 1, 2014 Author Share Posted March 1, 2014 Hopefully we can get some good dynamics during the night time to be more ip than zr.Today's models seemed to have gotten better with the 850's with the southward shift also Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted March 1, 2014 Author Share Posted March 1, 2014 https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=792971854066205&set=a.358160627547332.99358.356106867752708&type=1&theater Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 I would be interested to hear Robert discuss the impacts in west and middle TN. They could be significant...i.e. icing amounts etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted March 2, 2014 Author Share Posted March 2, 2014 I would be interested to hear Robert discuss the impacts in west and middle TN. They could be significant...i.e. icing amounts etc. I would also,if you here anything please post.Would like to here a mets perspective that post here as well.I was looking at some of the critical thickness,man it's so close for some better snow.Doubt we'll see much change as John mentioned earlier with everything sampled after the 0z run tonight,would like to see another S shift Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted March 2, 2014 Author Share Posted March 2, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted March 2, 2014 Author Share Posted March 2, 2014 http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/SREFPROB_15z/probsnwloop.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted March 2, 2014 Author Share Posted March 2, 2014 I believe they are playing this safe,towards the west there is more ice with what the models are showing, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted March 2, 2014 Author Share Posted March 2, 2014 Ok,the more i looked at the graphs the more confused i get in what Nashville is seeing.I havent seen a model today that shows less than .60 ice at BNA.The epo is almost -200 the AO IS AT -2,this to me suggest that we have a low level cold pool which may even be stronger than what the models are even picking up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted March 2, 2014 Author Share Posted March 2, 2014 Just checking around some other boards just now and i found this off the TNWX board which makes me even more confused of what Nashville is seeing TO OUR NORTH...21Z SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA RANGED FROM THE LOWER TEENS TO THE MIDDLE 20S. COMPARING THESE TEMPERATURES TO THE MORNING NAM 21Z FORECAST FORSURFACE TEMPERATURES INDICATED THAT THE NAM WAS RUNNING 8 TO 10 DEGREES TOO WARM WITH AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE ARCTIC FRONT. UNFORTUNATELY THE NAM IS THE COLDEST OF THE POPULAR OPERATIONAL FORECAST MODELS...SO THERE ARE SOME SIGNIFICANT SHORT TERM SURFACE TEMPERATURE ISSUES TO CONTEND WITH IN THE FORECAST MODELS MOVING FORWARD./quote] Edit:Not sure what disco site this is from but as i said before do the models even know how cold the lower level cold pool will be? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 No clue how much is zr and how much is snow, but the clown map is colorful and still sagging southeast. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted March 2, 2014 Author Share Posted March 2, 2014 NAM shifted S which i figured it would Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted March 2, 2014 Author Share Posted March 2, 2014 No clue how much is zr and how much is snow, but the clown map is colorful and still sagging southeast. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk The heaviest snow is now over NW TN on my promap,,awesome shift Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Any idea on snow amounts for northern mid Tn vs ice/sleet Jax? Looks like a crap ton of qpf incoming. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted March 2, 2014 Author Share Posted March 2, 2014 Any idea on snow amounts for northern mid Tn vs ice/sleet Jax? Looks like a crap ton of qpf incoming. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Ill check in a couple,nice thump for the NW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 When you say nw, you talking about nw middle or northwest? All the maps I have show huge snow amounts, but I noticed 850s were questionable at best........for northern middle TN. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted March 2, 2014 Author Share Posted March 2, 2014 When you say nw, you talking about nw middle or northwest? All the maps I have show huge snow amounts, but I noticed 850s were questionable at best........for northern middle TN. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Still in load mode but a shift to the S is profound,NW TN is 6" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 No clue how much is zr and how much is snow, but the clown map is colorful and still sagging southeast. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Not sure if I have seen the NAM go that high! You know, Nut, starting to worry about freezing rain in the northern Valley(east). Looks like a given in middle and west, a true masher. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted March 2, 2014 Author Share Posted March 2, 2014 lol..the NAM IS NUTS,gimme a sec Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 ZR is such an anomaly this time if year. I am amazed at the various products showing this much! It seems the cold has continued sagging more west and middle than east, but I won't be surprised if we have some wintry with this. You will likely have a better shot than me with the 20 miles or so more north that you are. Hard to go against the Euro on this one. It has been pretty good with this event the last several days. Hope it nails it for our friends further west. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Nut, you have a ZR model for this? The qpf for E TN is way up. This system is not done moving. Looks like the "finger" that points where qpf sets up shop is pivoting at Memphis, going southward w/ each run. Seems to be bringing Nashville metro into big #s but what are the chances this continues to sag and bring this to a statewide event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Northwestern TN is 'bout to get buried under a pile of frozen mess. Pretty epic maps. Man! The trend is amazing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Nut, you have a ZR model for this? The qpf for E TN is way up. This system is not done moving. Looks like the "finger" that points where qpf sets up shop is pivoting at Memphis, going southward w/ each run. Seems to be bringing Nashville metro into big #s but what are the chances this continues to sag and bring this to a statewide event. Here is a freezing rain map from CoolWx. I'm not sure how accurate these maps are. It has a lot of ZR for East TN (up to .8 looks like) and hammers western TN with up to 2.5" of sleet and 1" + ZR. This map looks much different on snowfall for Western TN than the other clown maps y'all been posting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 NAM dropping 20 inches of snow? LMAO! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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