usedtobe Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 18z GEFS support the OP...over 1" QPF for DC..probably 4-6" of snow (conservative) Looks pretty good, a far cry from last night's 06Z version. I'd say if the models hold onto the cold solution another run we're probably good to go or at least as good to go as we ever are around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 For those worrying about accumulation, the ground is frigid. The roads may warm some Sat-Sun, but with mod snow, even that is a non issue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
das Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 What do you guys think of accumulation potential with heavier precip falling during the day Monday given sun angle, ground temps especially in DC? Do you think the air temps and snow rates can overcome the early March sun angle? Curious as to your thoughts. Thanks Aw, now you've gone and done it, the natives are going to go ballistic with all those hot-button topic questions. As modeled, CAA and rates should solve any previous warm day or stormtime insolation issues. Matt posted an hourly report from DCA from the March storm back in '99 that was a decent example. Not saying that we will get 9+" but if we get the CAA from the due north that's in the models, it'll be fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 It can snow at any time with temperatures in the low 20's. It can accumulate and accumulate well with heavy rates until at-least mid March. Getting a few inches down before 12z or some sleet base even before that certainly doesn't hurt the process. Snow sticks to snow very well. yes...this convo is silly...March is a problem when it is light snow that starts during the day and it is like 34 with a rancid rotting polar airmass (see 3/6/13)...this is legit fresh arctic...snow laid on main streets on March 25th last year at 32-33 predawn... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SLPressure Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Seems like it's time to go into storm mode and really sensor your comments in this thread unless you have something substantive to add. It can get rather cluttered with garbage at times like this. The banter thread is there for those weenies who just can't keep your fingers off your keyboards. Just my 2 cents but it isn't too bad in here... yet. Let's see what 00Z or even tomorrows 12Z bring before we go into Storm Mode. Or not. 18z GEFS support the OP...over 1" QPF for DC..probably 4-6" of snow (conservative) (In storm mode I couldn't show my appreciation!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 yes...this convo is silly...March is a problem when it is light snow that starts during the day and it is like 34 with a rancid rotting polar airmass (see 3/6/13)...this is legit fresh arctic...snow laid on main streets on March 25th last year at 32-33 predawn... Exactly, it is a pointless argument to make to some it seems. Climo is one thing, but this isn't a typical climo airmass either. Fresh polar air racing in with strong CAA. Very anomalous airmass for the time of year and considering the source region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Exactly, it is a pointless argument to make to some it seems. Climo is one thing, but this isn't a typical climo airmass either. Fresh polar air racing in with strong CAA. Very anomalous airmass for the time of year and considering the source region. It's March 3rd...not March 20th...If it started after dawn it might not stick to main main streets right away, but big deal... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Looks pretty good, a far cry from last night's 06Z version. I'd say if the models hold onto the cold solution another run we're probably good to go or at least as good to go as we ever are around here. Best post of the day. I hope your writing an article Sunday about why a foot is possible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Looks pretty good, a far cry from last night's 06Z version. I'd say if the models hold onto the cold solution another run we're probably good to go or at least as good to go as we ever are around here. I'll start feeling confident around 1pm on Monday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 It's March 3rd...not March 20th...If it started after dawn it might not stick to main main streets right away, but big deal... I could care less about roads at this point anyway. All about stats now. I don't measure by my mailbox. Might be nice on the sledding hill too. No march mud sledding if it works out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Exactly, it is a pointless argument to make to some it seems. Climo is one thing, but this isn't a typical climo airmass either. Fresh polar air racing in with strong CAA. Very anomalous airmass for the time of year and considering the source region. Well, the person who raised the question is -by his own account - a recent transplant from the southwest I believe, so he has no previous experience from which to draw. It seems a pretty benign question wrt to his previous location and experience. I imagine early March sun-angle in New Mexico is a problem in most-cases. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 I'll start feeling confident around 1pm on Monday YOu know DC and DC in March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 I could care less about roads at this point anyway. All about stats now. I don't measure by my mailbox. Might be nice on the sledding hill too. No march mud sledding if it works out. it's going to stick to roads...March 25th stuck to Union st in Old Town...Fresh full blanket at 10' ASL and a temp of 33 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 My bar is like 8". Anything less is fail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 it's going to stick to roads...March 25th stuck to Union st in Old Town...Fresh full blanket at 10' ASL and a temp of 33 Indeed it did. And were talking crashing temperatures down to what some models even have the high teens in places with heavy, potentially high ratio dendrites falling. I like the chances for almost anyone around DC, even Crystal City. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hosj III Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Meh where's the giant ice storm. I really wanted the 0z GFS from feb 26th to verify. Literally 30 hours of ice accretion with over an inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hosj III Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 My bar is like 8". Anything less is fail. My bar is 24". Anything less is a total bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThePhotoGuy Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Meh where's the giant ice storm. 45 hour ice storm > a couple of inches of snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 This was 3/25/13 at 5am in Old Town 200 yards from the River..that is South Union st....at 10'ASL......it wasn't +SN.......the temp at DCA was 33.8.....The high on the 23rd was 55...44 on the 24th.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hosj III Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 45 hour ice storm > a couple of inches of snow +1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 45 hour ice storm > a couple of inches of snowTrue but the former is only a Yoda ripping and reading the GFS fantasy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherCCB Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 I could care less about roads at this point anyway. All about stats now. I don't measure by my mailbox. Might be nice on the sledding hill too. No march mud sledding if it works out. Glen view mansion in rockville is great place to sled. But you might already know that. Grew up sledding there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 +1 This is banter, but speak for yourself. I'll take 6-10" of powder any day. Sure ice is nice, but I'm at 36.7" this winter even around Baltimore and if I have a chance at a 40'' winter, then well I want it all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThePhotoGuy Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 True but the former is only a Yoda ripping and reading the GFS fantasy. Oh I know, we cant even do an ice storm here (imby) in Mid Feb so it would never happen in March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Ice is really cool up to about 0.25". Beyond that it decreases in fun exponentially. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hosj III Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Ice is really cool up to about 0.25". Beyond that it decreases in fun exponentially. Nah, give me as much ice as possible. I want 2". Give me wind too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Nah, give me as much ice as possible. I want 2". Give me wind too. wait till' you get in your 50's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 WV loop of the storm (paging Mitchnick...) http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/weus/flash-vis.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Nah, give me as much ice as possible. I want 2". Give me wind too. Where do you live? Apartment? Townhouse? Rent? Own? Yeah, there was a time when I thought ice was cool too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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