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March 2-3 Storm Disco, Part II


stormtracker

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What do you guys think of accumulation potential with heavier precip falling during the day Monday given sun angle, ground temps especially in DC? Do you think the air temps and snow rates can overcome the early March sun angle? Curious as to your thoughts. Thanks

 

Aw, now you've gone and done it, the natives are going to go ballistic with all those hot-button topic questions.

 

As modeled, CAA and rates should solve any previous warm day or stormtime insolation issues.  Matt posted an hourly report from DCA from the March storm back in '99 that was a decent example.  Not saying that we will get 9+" but if we get the CAA from the due north that's in the models, it'll be fine.

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It can snow at any time with temperatures in the low 20's. It can accumulate and accumulate well with heavy rates until at-least mid March. Getting a few inches down before 12z or some sleet base even before that certainly doesn't hurt the process. Snow sticks to snow very well. 

yes...this convo is silly...March is a problem when it is light snow that starts during the day and it is like 34 with a rancid rotting polar airmass (see 3/6/13)...this is legit fresh arctic...snow laid on main streets on March 25th last year at 32-33 predawn...

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Seems like it's time to go into storm mode and really sensor your comments in this thread unless you have something substantive to add.  It can get rather cluttered with garbage at times like this. The banter thread is there for those weenies who just can't keep your fingers off your keyboards.

Just my 2 cents but it isn't too bad in here... yet. Let's see what 00Z or even tomorrows 12Z bring before we go into Storm Mode.

Or not.

 

18z GEFS support the OP...over 1" QPF for DC..probably 4-6" of snow (conservative)

:hug:

(In storm mode I couldn't show my appreciation!)

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yes...this convo is silly...March is a problem when it is light snow that starts during the day and it is like 34 with a rancid rotting polar airmass (see 3/6/13)...this is legit fresh arctic...snow laid on main streets on March 25th last year at 32-33 predawn...

Exactly, it is a pointless argument to make to some it seems. Climo is one thing, but this isn't a typical climo airmass either. Fresh polar air racing in with strong CAA. Very anomalous airmass for the time of year and considering the source region. 

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Exactly, it is a pointless argument to make to some it seems. Climo is one thing, but this isn't a typical climo airmass either. Fresh polar air racing in with strong CAA. Very anomalous airmass for the time of year and considering the source region. 

 

It's March 3rd...not March 20th...If it started after dawn it might not stick to main main streets right away, but big deal...

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It's March 3rd...not March 20th...If it started after dawn it might not stick to main main streets right away, but big deal...

I could care less about roads at this point anyway. All about stats now. I don't measure by my mailbox. Might be nice on the sledding hill too. No march mud sledding if it works out.

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Exactly, it is a pointless argument to make to some it seems. Climo is one thing, but this isn't a typical climo airmass either. Fresh polar air racing in with strong CAA. Very anomalous airmass for the time of year and considering the source region. 

Well, the person who raised the question is -by his own account - a recent transplant from the southwest I believe, so he has no previous experience from which to draw.  It seems a pretty benign question wrt to his previous location and experience.  I imagine early March sun-angle in New Mexico is a problem in most-cases.

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I could care less about roads at this point anyway. All about stats now. I don't measure by my mailbox. Might be nice on the sledding hill too. No march mud sledding if it works out.

 

it's going to stick to roads...March 25th stuck to Union st in Old Town...Fresh full blanket at 10' ASL and a temp of 33

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it's going to stick to roads...March 25th stuck to Union st in Old Town...Fresh full blanket at 10' ASL and a temp of 33

Indeed it did. And were talking crashing temperatures down to what some models even have the high teens in places with heavy, potentially high ratio dendrites falling. I like the chances for almost anyone around DC, even Crystal City. 

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