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March 2-3 Storm Disco, Part II


stormtracker

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I was viewing the NY thread once I saw the NAM and GFS... they are in meltdown mode too... I would not post there in fear of trolling

It's pretty ugly. Quite the 12 hr shift against something more than an inch or two....   But if we don't get nailed, I hope you all do.  You guys are on the short end of the stick too often! 

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I'm wondering what the liquid:snow conversion levels will be. Looks like surface temperatures will be sub-20F by the onset of the heavy precip at 66hr on the 18z GFS run, while mid-layer (850mb) temperatures will be in the mid 20's

 

Based on NOAA's conversion table ( http://www.crh.noaa.gov/dvn/?n=toolswaterequiv):

  • 28F and up = 10:1
  • 20 to 27F = 15:1
  • 15 to 19F = 20:1

If these temperature profiles are right, and we actually see 15:1 to 20:1 ratios, the snow total estimates based on a standard 10:1 ratio for us could be quite low.

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Seems like it's time to go into storm mode and really sensor your comments in this thread unless you have something substantive to add.  It can get rather cluttered with garbage at times like this. The banter thread is there for those weenies who just can't keep your fingers off your keyboards.

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What do you guys think of accumulation potential with heavier precip falling during the day Monday given sun angle, ground temps especially in DC? Do you think the air temps and snow rates can overcome the early March sun angle? Curious as to your thoughts. Thanks

 

uh-oh. starting to sound like march 6th.

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What do you guys think of accumulation potential with heavier precip falling during the day Monday given sun angle, ground temps especially in DC? Do you think the air temps and snow rates can overcome the early March sun angle? Curious as to your thoughts. Thanks

The temp profiles have shown them dropping into the low 20's throughout the day. Correct me if I'm wrong here but I don't think it will be an issue with the snow.

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The temp profiles have shown them dropping into the low 20's throughout the day. Correct me if I'm wrong here but I don't think it will be an issue with the snow.

 

I think if temps do indeed fall to the mid/upper 20s during the best snow we shouldn't have any issues accumulating.  Of course when it stops if the sun comes out it'll do a number on it right away.  

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Looking at latest wv loop there seems to be a tropical mosturie feed to the se of the sw and moving ne right in front. You would think that this thing could tap that. I mean even a weak circulation should be able draw off of that . Might just b my weenie glasses on, but take a look at and see what you think . Any feedback is appreciated . Thanks.

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What do you guys think of accumulation potential with heavier precip falling during the day Monday given sun angle, ground temps especially in DC? Do you think the air temps and snow rates can overcome the early March sun angle? Curious as to your thoughts. Thanks

It's an issue. The snow as it falls will turn into fire, and anyone caught outside will be incinerated from the falling fireballs. Most of the areas buildings will be burned to the ground.

Be vigilant.

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