mappy Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Just what you wanted right? yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 12z Monday is a clean snow sounding on the 18z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Just saw GFS..sweet run,...looks like about 6-8" for DC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 HPC is very bullish on the south track. They have MUCH of VA below freezing before 7am Monday- I mean, like well south of me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Exactly I'm all for looking at fantasy storms but they at least have to be modeled as such. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 12z Monday is a clean snow sounding on the 18z GFS. 9z looks clean to me or close Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Being on the northern edge of a system like this in March is fine. It will come north 24-36 hours out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 I was viewing the NY thread once I saw the NAM and GFS... they are in meltdown mode too... I would not post there in fear of trolling It's pretty ugly. Quite the 12 hr shift against something more than an inch or two.... But if we don't get nailed, I hope you all do. You guys are on the short end of the stick too often! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Random Chaos Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 I'm wondering what the liquid:snow conversion levels will be. Looks like surface temperatures will be sub-20F by the onset of the heavy precip at 66hr on the 18z GFS run, while mid-layer (850mb) temperatures will be in the mid 20's Based on NOAA's conversion table ( http://www.crh.noaa.gov/dvn/?n=toolswaterequiv): 28F and up = 10:1 20 to 27F = 15:1 15 to 19F = 20:1 If these temperature profiles are right, and we actually see 15:1 to 20:1 ratios, the snow total estimates based on a standard 10:1 ratio for us could be quite low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Portsmouth Weather Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 HPC is very bullish on the south track. They have MUCH of VA below freezing before 7am Monday- I mean, like well south of me. Could you post the link to the graphic. I cant find it on their site. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 The first storm in 40 years that trended south from NYC to crush dc is the one i have to miss. I know I'm being punished Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hosj III Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 The first storm in 40 years that trended south from NYC to crush dc is the one i have to miss. I know I'm being punished watch it trend south and nail you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 HPC QPF forecast for the storm. 1" touching DC from the west. Obviously, not all of this is frozen, but I like that HPC is on board with a high QPF event for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Seems like it's time to go into storm mode and really sensor your comments in this thread unless you have something substantive to add. It can get rather cluttered with garbage at times like this. The banter thread is there for those weenies who just can't keep your fingers off your keyboards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I-83 BLIZZARD Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 My modeled 8-12" is now only 5-7" GREAT RUN! I'll take my near warning criteria snow at home and a day off from work downtown anyday! Euro will be the biggest run of our lives, since the last euro run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 What do you guys think of accumulation potential with heavier precip falling during the day Monday given sun angle, ground temps especially in DC? Do you think the air temps and snow rates can overcome the early March sun angle? Curious as to your thoughts. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlizzardNole Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Being on the northern edge of a system like this in March is fine. It will come north 24-36 hours out. Yep! Who woulda thunk a couple days ago that we might be sitting here Saturday hoping for a last minute slight north trend. I am happy right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hosj III Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 What do you guys think of accumulation potential with heavier precip falling during the day Monday given sun angle, ground temps especially in DC? Do you think the air temps and snow rates can overcome the early March sun angle? Curious as to your thoughts. Thanks uh-oh. starting to sound like march 6th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 What do you guys think of accumulation potential with heavier precip falling during the day Monday given sun angle, ground temps especially in DC? Do you think the air temps and snow rates can overcome the early March sun angle? Curious as to your thoughts. Thanks The temp profiles have shown them dropping into the low 20's throughout the day. Correct me if I'm wrong here but I don't think it will be an issue with the snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 HPC QPF forecast for the storm. 1" touching DC from the west. Obviously, not all of this is frozen, but I like that HPC is on board with a high QPF event for us. LOL....HPC took the Euro and put their name on it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 The temp profiles have shown them dropping into the low 20's throughout the day. Correct me if I'm wrong here but I don't think it will be an issue with the snow. I think if temps do indeed fall to the mid/upper 20s during the best snow we shouldn't have any issues accumulating. Of course when it stops if the sun comes out it'll do a number on it right away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherCCB Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Looking at latest wv loop there seems to be a tropical mosturie feed to the se of the sw and moving ne right in front. You would think that this thing could tap that. I mean even a weak circulation should be able draw off of that . Might just b my weenie glasses on, but take a look at and see what you think . Any feedback is appreciated . Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 What do you guys think of accumulation potential with heavier precip falling during the day Monday given sun angle, ground temps especially in DC? Do you think the air temps and snow rates can overcome the early March sun angle? Curious as to your thoughts. Thanks It's an issue. The snow as it falls will turn into fire, and anyone caught outside will be incinerated from the falling fireballs. Most of the areas buildings will be burned to the ground. Be vigilant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 I think it can snow in early march with temps in lower 20s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 I think it can snow in early march with temps in lower 20s At this point, YOU have to know we're getting a foot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Give me .5 qpf all snow in 6 hours and I'll take my chances with 33* temps. Pretty powder on all surfaces is not a march goal....but it could happen Monday..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 18z GEFS support the OP...over 1" QPF for DC..probably 4-6" of snow (conservative) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 It can snow at any time with temperatures in the low 20's. It can accumulate and accumulate well with heavy rates until at-least mid March. Getting a few inches down before 12z or some sleet base even before that certainly doesn't hurt the process. Snow sticks to snow very well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 GFS ens members are almost unanimously good for the region. Not so much for those to the north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Meh where's the giant ice storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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