Scraff Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Monday looks good for now, but anyone care to comment on the March 6 hour 129 snowstorm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Did anyone expect us to become the center point of this storm? I sure as heck didn't. Sometimes it just wants to snow in certain areas. We've been pretty lucky this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Bob, on the NCEP maps, looks like anything after ~11z (5-6am MON) should be snow. the first 1000-500mb blue thickness line is just south of DCA near EZF at 12z MON I am struck by the flatter look on the 18Z GFS. It doesn't dig as much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 I am struck by the flatter look on the 18Z GFS. It doesn't dig as much. Not sure how this compares to previous runs, but snowfall amounts look substantial region-wide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 I am struck by the flatter look on the 18Z GFS. It doesn't dig as much. It's a tricky dance with favorable confluence from the pv. We have to have it or it's warm and rainy. But a byproduct is a less amped system. I'll root for a weaker/colder/snowier system at this point. If I get 4" I'll be thrilled. Anything over that is outstanding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 I like where we sit. Even if the models do the slight "north trend," we have wiggle room. We're now within 60 hours of start time and we have GFS & Euro on board for at least 5" of snow. I'll take those chances any day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Monday looks good for now, but anyone care to comment on the March 6 hour 129 snowstorm? You mean the suppressed and out to sea one that barely scrapes VA? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Then it would be about .60-.70 snow @ DCA. Lock that up man. That's about what my guesstimate was, maybe on the order of ~0.7 verbatim in the DC area that's all snow and getting quite cold as Monday goes on. There's definitely something like sleet/mix between 03Z (or shortly after) through about 09Z or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 It's a tricky dance with favorable confluence from the pv. We have to have it or it's warm and rainy. But a byproduct is a less amped system. I'll root for a weaker/colder/snowier system at this point. If I get 4" I'll be thrilled. Anything over that is outstanding. I'm with you 100% on this, Bob. 4" in the beginning of March would be sweet. Too strong and she comes too far north. I like where we sit right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Did anyone expect us to become the center point of this storm? I sure as heck didn't. Sometimes it just wants to snow in certain areas. We've been pretty lucky this year. 5 days ago we were, are darn close, if memory serves Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 You mean the suppressed and out to sea one that barely scrapes VA? Maybe I'm drunk off the earlier part of the GFS run, but I'm looking the surface precip type map. It shows snow from hr 129-153 so far.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Maybe I'm drink off the earlier part of the GFS run, but I'm looking the surface precip type map. It shows snow from hr 129-153 so far.. You're sure you're looking at the 18Z GFS? I see nada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 That's about what my guesstimate was, maybe on the order of ~0.7 verbatim in the DC area that's all snow and getting quite cold as Monday goes on. There's definitely something like sleet/mix between 03Z (or shortly after) through about 09Z or so. I'm not going to pick apart this run too much. 0z is pretty important irt the south trend. I can't imagine that it gets pushed so far south that it becomes a non event. If anything, the envelope has us mostly in the crosshairs. That's a bit of a surprise considering last night. This is a 6hr euro ens precip panel from 12z-18z monday. It's a very bullish panel and shows tight clustering. But look at the jackpot. Not really that far off of the 18z gfs. Interesting. But I will say the euro ens have moved around every bit as much as the op. Today was the first time they had a noticeable difference. I think the south trend isn't a blip now. But I also think a shift north is equally as possible as another shift south. Fun storm and very difficult to analyze. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 You're sure you're looking at the 18Z GFS? I see nada. 18Z insta weather maps "surface precip type". Wish i could post the picture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Maybe I'm drink off the earlier part of the GFS run, but I'm looking the surface precip type map. It shows snow from hr 129-153 so far.. Don't see that, but then again I'm stuck on the NCEP maps at 135. Through that time there's definitely something offshore, but no precip up into VA/DC/MD and it looks like that "something" offshore goes out to sea. I'm not sure how reliable those precip type maps are in terms of actual precip occurring; I want to say I've seen them show a precip type even when there's none indicated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 For now we're still ok.. We are getting close to north edge but that's also better ratios. ya the pa thread is in a meltdown right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 You're sure you're looking at the 18Z GFS? I see nada. Some terrible posting today lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 I'm not going to pick apart this run too much. 0z is pretty important irt the south trend. I can't imagine that it gets pushed so far south that it becomes a non event. If anything, the envelope has us mostly in the crosshairs. That's a bit of a surprise considering last night. This is a 6hr euro ens precip panel from 12z-18z monday. It's a very bullish panel and shows tight clustering. But look at the jackpot. Not really that far off of the 18z gfs. Interesting. But I will say the euro ens have moved around every bit as much as the op. Today was the first time they had a noticeable difference. I think the south trend isn't a blip now. But I also think a shift north is equally as possible as another shift south. Fun storm and very difficult to analyze. epsqpf78.JPG Oh, I agree with you here. Wasn't tryint to parse out the GFS details too much, just that I saw more or less the same thing you were saying on what it's showing verbatim as all snow at this point. Interesting panel from the Euro ensembles. I'm not sure how much a "too far" south shift is to worry about right now, but we'll have to see. Or for that matter, if the GFS goes slightly farther north. I like that we seem to have some room to play with here, though. As you say, it's fun to analyze even if trying on the nerves! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Don't see that, but then again I'm stuck on the NCEP maps at 135. Through that time there's definitely something offshore, but no precip up into VA/DC/MD and it looks like that "something" offshore goes out to sea. I'm not sure how reliable those precip type maps are in terms of actual precip occurring; I want to say I've seen them show a precip type even when there's none indicated. Please take a look at insta weather and tell me this Ithaca Flower Power IPA has not impaired my vision. ;-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Please take a look at insta weather and tell me this Ithaca Flower Power IPA has not impaired my vision. ;-) Look at the QPF first and the surface low etc lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 My modeled 8-12" is now only 5-7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Oh, I agree with you here. Wasn't tryint to parse out the GFS details too much, just that I saw more or less the same thing you were saying on what it's showing verbatim as all snow at this point. Interesting panel from the Euro ensembles. I'm not sure how much a "too far" south shift is to worry about right now, but we'll have to see. Or for that matter, if the GFS goes slightly farther north. I like that we seem to have some room to play with here, though. As you say, it's fun to analyze even if trying on the nerves! I guess we're supposed to feel good right now. The shifting has been around us and not away from us. And having the max now just to the south should be a great thing. But I'm nervous. We're all nervous. lol I'm waiting for the big juicy run in the next 24 hours that gives us all 12"+. SQL x 1000 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 My modeled 8-12" is now only 5-7" Just what you wanted right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Look at the QPF first and the surface low etc lol Don't you have a plane to catch? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Some terrible posting today lol Huh? What do you mean terrible? There's nothing there! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peribonca Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 DC is the new Westminster! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 ya the pa thread is in a meltdown right now I was viewing the NY thread once I saw the NAM and GFS... they are in meltdown mode too... I would not post there in fear of trolling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Huh? What do you mean terrible? There's nothing there! Exactly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 You mean the suppressed and out to sea one that barely scrapes VA? My fault. I see what I did. All good. Though I hear JB2 honking his Canadian model worship for this time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 RGEM only goes out to 54 hours but at 54, it looks closer to the Euro than the GGEM, especially in regards to our slug of moisture. "Part 2" on the RGEM looks really juicy down south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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