aldie 22 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 JB2 just posted his first call... 1901212_10152217591998476_747312436_n.png I will take in the middle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 I will take in the middle image.jpg He's good at tracing the Euro maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 I will take in the middle image.jpg Euro output translated into DT graphics? I'd take it in a heartbeat, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 JB2 just posted his first call... 1901212_10152217591998476_747312436_n.png Local forecasters always go conservative. Is it true they rely on the RPM too much? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Random Chaos Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Something I notice about the Euro on Sunday night: The 850mb temp tracks right along with the surface temps, maybe even a tad bit south of the surface temps. If this holds, no sleet. Once the surface drops sub-freezing, we get all snow. That's a big shift from yesterday, where the 850mb temps were running about 50-100 miles north of the surface temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Temps in upper teens at 1pm in March and snowing like crazy. Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 I'm thinking between JB2 and DT is where it will lie, I-70 corridor or just S of there if you will. Euro is overplaying the dense air at the sfc. As it is well documented it has a low level cold bias in mid-latitudes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 He's good at tracing the Euro maps. If you blend JB2s map and DTs then leesburg is the bullseye....I'm gonna go with that....thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ltrain Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Local forecasters always go conservative. Is it true they rely on the RPM too much? He doesn't use the RPM. I don't think he even looks at the Euro. He never mentions it and is too busy acting like the GGEM is the best model ever and its never wrong. I do know that Tom T and John C love that RPM and its low snow totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 I think JB missed the Euro, but he does stress it's just his first call and the numbers he posted are the absolute lowest he expects to fall. Literally every meteorologist does this with our big storms, including TWC, Accuweather, etc. They all start on the low end and as the event gets closer, slowly start to increase numbers. Often the numbers continue to increase as the storm hits our region. The big February storm certainly saw that. Numbers started low and increased gradually until we had a lot of 8-14 and 12-18 predictions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Temps in upper teens at 1pm in March and snowing like crazy. Wow. When did that happen? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Random Chaos Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 When did that happen? Monday. He time traveled back to let us know. But those temps are crazy Monday into Tuesday. Bitter cold for March, more like a really cold January rather than March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Temp snapshot panels on the euro are wild. Low to mid 30's at 7pm Sun Right around freezing or slightly below at 1 am for the cities imediate nw burbs and colder further nw Low to mid 20's at 7am but teens northern tier. Mid teens by 1pm. So a 10 degree drop during the meat. Awesome Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Temp snapshot panels on the euro are wild. Low to mid 30's at 7pm Sun Right around freezing or slightly below at 1 am for the cities imediate nw burbs and colder further nw Low to mid 20's at 7am but teens northern tier. Mid teens by 1pm. So a 10 degree drop during the meat. Awesome Don't tell needsbiggergoat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Local forecasters always go conservative. Is it true they rely on the RPM too much? Lol. JB2 is far from conservative. I actually like his map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Random Chaos Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Temp snapshot panels on the euro are wild. Low to mid 30's at 7pm Sun Right around freezing or slightly below at 1 am for the cities imediate nw burbs and colder further nw Low to mid 20's at 7am but teens northern tier. Mid teens by 1pm. So a 10 degree drop during the meat. Awesome Look at Tuesday morning on the ECMWF. 32F line reaches all the way to the gulf coast across a wide area. Parts of WV are showing -20F. This is bitterly cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Look at Tuesday morning on the ECMWF. 32F line reaches all the way to the gulf coast across a wide area. Parts of WV are showing -20F. This is bitterly cold. ECMWF has a well documented cold bias in the lowest levels in the mid-latitudes. Has been an issue since Nov. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 When did that happen? not upper teens, but low 20s and ripping on March 2nd 2009 and mid 20s on 3/9/99....I got 7.5" from the 1st and 9.5" from the 2nd..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeedaSnowday Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Lol. JB2 is far from conservative. I actually like his map. Agreed... Check his YouTube link out...http://m.youtube.com/watch?a=&v=5lKeDJJBmKw&feature=youtu.be Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 not upper teens, but low 20s and ripping on March 2nd 2009 and mid 20s on 3/9/99....I got 7.5" from the 1st and 9.5" from the 2nd..... And 14 F during the height of the storm at Richmond, VA on 3/1/80. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Subtropics Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Do the snow output models take sun angle into account? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swva Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Guys did it trend colder down into southwest va or is it still too warm to matter? According to this one model run, even we get crushed.. 8-12" verbatim Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Agreed... Check his YouTube link out...http://m.youtube.com/watch?a=&v=5lKeDJJBmKw&feature=youtu.be That is actually from here: It's the RGEM/ CMC http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 not upper teens, but low 20s and ripping on March 2nd 2009 and mid 20s on 3/9/99....I got 7.5" from the 1st and 9.5" from the 2nd..... Yup, one of those rare March snowfalls....I remember that ones well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 not upper teens, but low 20s and ripping on March 2nd 2009 and mid 20s on 3/9/99....I got 7.5" from the 1st and 9.5" from the 2nd..... The March clipper in 2007 was pretty cold too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jnis Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 not upper teens, but low 20s and ripping on March 2nd 2009 and mid 20s on 3/9/99....I got 7.5" from the 1st and 9.5" from the 2nd..... 3/9/99 was a nice storm, and it was definitely cold...felt more like an early Feb. storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 needbiggerscroat is an Administrator minion but in full snow mode he amounts to another 13 year old troll Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathercoins Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Do the snow output models take sun angle into account? If temps are as cold as predicted during the day, I don't think it will be much a factor. 3/6 had borderline temps all the way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Guessing he has completely missed the Euro? Or he doesn't take it verbatim. Climo and seasonal pattern favors his jackpot zone, though as wxmeddler said, it could be a little south of where Berk put it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Sun angle is zero issue here and I continue to believe that the freezing rain time frame will be very short, not even one hour, sleet may last longer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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