March 2-3 Storm Disco, Part II

[nw baltimore wx]

For those interested, DT says he is updating his maps and will have them out shortly.

 

 

 

**** ALERT *** ALERT *** MASSIVE SHIFT IN SNOWSTORM TRACK AND HEAVIEST AMOUNTS ON ALL MODEL DATA IN LAST 12 HRS **

MAJOR MARCH SNOWSTORM 6-10" AT LEAST ...FOR DCA -BWI ALL MD ALL OF WVA ...ALL OF NORTH HALF OF VA .... FROM FREDERICKSBURG TO CHARLOTTESVILLE TO LEXINGTON ALL OF NORTHERN NECK ... ALL OF LOWER MD EASTERN SHORE...

HEAVY SLEET then SNOW FOR ROANOKE LYNCHBURG FARMVILLE RICHMOND.... 3 to 6 inches

more shortly

[WhiteoutMD]

Quick Question what are some of the all time march snows in DC BWI IAD? I thinkl I saw someone post this recently but can't find it.

[MDstorm]

Forgot to take my medication this morning, so a little concerned over the progressive south shift each model cycle (even with the Euro) over the last 48 hours. With 36-48 hours to go before storm onset, how much further south will things go? I certainly would like to see things stabilize over the next 12 hours.

Also, we need a Wes post.

MDstorm

[nw baltimore wx]

Quick Question what are some of the all time march snows in DC BWI IAD? I thinkl I saw someone post this recently but can't find it.

 

Baltimore is 21.9" back in '42.  I don't know about BWI though.

 

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/lwx/climate/bwi/Bwimar.txt

[snowfan]

Why do people think March snow is rare? Rare is once every few decades. If anything, we are overdue. Different story DC which is increasingly like the climate of Northside Richmond.

I don't think anyone ever said March snow is rare. Big....and I'm talking 8+....are not that common. Especially for the dc folks.

[Fozz]

I don't think anyone ever said March snow is rare. Big....and I'm talking 8+....are not that common. Especially for the dc folks.

 

needsbiggerboat claimed that any accumulating snow in March is very rare, because it doesn't snow on most March days.... of course his reasoning is specious.

[astarck]

Temps may bust low today.

[T. August]

Can I get a link/image to the GGEM hr 48+? WeatherBELL is still stuck at 42 lol...

[needbiggerboat]

needsbiggerboat claimed that any accumulating snow in March is very rare, because it doesn't snow on most March days.... of course his reasoning is specious.

Do you consider a 1 out of 31 return rate high frequency?

[Sparky]

No doubt. Qpf max is def a function of best moisture and lift. You could live below sea level and jackpot. I'm rooting for everyone. This could be a very special one reserved for mostly just us

I wouldn't be surprised at all with this one if the heaviest snow falls just south of Carroll, through Howard, Montgomery, central Balto co, lower Harford.  Of course my yard will make some of it up with ratios and an earlier snow conversion time but still jackpot might be just south of Carroll.

[Yeoman]

[Sparky]

Baltimore is 21.9" back in '42.  I don't know about BWI though.

 

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/lwx/climate/bwi/Bwimar.txt

that would have been a helluva storm to witness.

[SnowGoose69]

We're never "locked and loaded" here, even 24 hours out. We've established that March snow is rare...this would be exceptionally different than the typical heavy wet slop in March that vanishes in a day or two.

 

I think most of this forum is fine for decent snows, I do think some people on the north side of this region will feel "screwed" because I do not anticipate the south shift is done on this thing, part of my thinking is the initial wave is going to be stronger than anticipated which is going to force things a bit further south for the 2nd round, that and I think that PV lobe means business that rotates down and ultimately squashes SNE and NYC's hopes...no doubt folks near ILG and maybe the northern burbs of BWI may complain because DCA or the SE DCA burbs see more snow in the end but it should be good regardless for everyone

[clskinsfan]

QPF just continues to increase on each run. GFS:

 

DCA:

 

140302/2100Z 33 04011KT 43.8F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.008 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.01 0| 0|100
140303/0000Z 36 03008KT 34.8F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.071 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.08 0| 0|100
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
140303/0300Z 39 04008KT 34.1F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.148 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.23 0| 0|100
140303/0600Z 42 03010KT 31.5F FZRA 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.05|| 0.052 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.05|| 0.28 0| 0|100
140303/0900Z 45 03013KT 28.1F PL 0:1| 0.0|| 0.17|| 0.00|| 0.083 0:1| 0.0|| 0.17|| 0.05|| 0.36 0| 90| 10
140303/1200Z 48 02014KT 20.4F SNOW 5:1| 0.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.146 5:1| 0.7|| 0.17|| 0.05|| 0.51 100| 0| 0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
140303/1500Z 51 02012KT 17.5F SNOW 11:1| 2.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.231 9:1| 3.3|| 0.17|| 0.05|| 0.74 100| 0| 0
140303/1800Z 54 02011KT 17.1F SNOW 13:1| 4.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.305 11:1| 7.4|| 0.17|| 0.05|| 1.04 100| 0| 0
140303/2100Z 57 36010KT 17.7F SNOW 19:1| 3.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.186 13:1| 10.9|| 0.17|| 0.05|| 1.23 100| 0| 0
140304/0000Z 60 36009KT 16.8F SNOW 10:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.027 12:1| 11.1|| 0.17|| 0.05|| 1.26 100| 0| 0

 

IAD:

 

140302/2100Z 33 03009KT 40.0F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.012 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.01 0| 0|100
140303/0000Z 36 02005KT 33.5F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.120 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.13 0| 0|100
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
140303/0300Z 39 04006KT 33.2F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.193 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.32 0| 0|100
140303/0600Z 42 03008KT 30.6F FZRA 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.06|| 0.054 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.06|| 0.38 0| 0|100
140303/0900Z 45 03011KT 25.8F SNPL 3:1| 0.3|| 0.07|| 0.00|| 0.079 3:1| 0.3|| 0.07|| 0.06|| 0.46 53| 47| 0
140303/1200Z 48 03012KT 19.3F SNOW 6:1| 0.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.123 5:1| 1.0|| 0.07|| 0.06|| 0.58 100| 0| 0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
140303/1500Z 51 02010KT 16.1F SNOW 12:1| 2.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.207 8:1| 3.4|| 0.07|| 0.06|| 0.79 100| 0| 0
140303/1800Z 54 02009KT 15.9F SNOW 13:1| 3.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.287 10:1| 7.2|| 0.07|| 0.06|| 1.07 100| 0| 0
140303/2100Z 57 36009KT 16.1F SNOW 21:1| 3.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.168 12:1| 10.8|| 0.07|| 0.06|| 1.24 100| 0| 0
140304/0000Z 60 35007KT 15.0F SNOW 12:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.024 12:1| 11.0|| 0.07|| 0.06|| 1.26 100| 0| 0

 

BWI:

 

140302/1800Z 30 02008KT 45.0F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.009 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.01 0| 0|100
140302/2100Z 33 02011KT 37.1F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.016 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.02 0| 0|100
140303/0000Z 36 03009KT 33.0F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.092 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.12 0| 0|100
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
140303/0300Z 39 03009KT 31.9F FZRA 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.16|| 0.154 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.16|| 0.27 0| 0|100
140303/0600Z 42 03011KT 28.7F FZRA 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.07|| 0.068 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.23|| 0.34 0| 0|100
140303/0900Z 45 02015KT 22.9F SNOW 6:1| 0.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.083 6:1| 0.5|| 0.00|| 0.23|| 0.42 100| 0| 0
140303/1200Z 48 02015KT 17.5F SNOW 7:1| 1.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.163 7:1| 1.7|| 0.00|| 0.23|| 0.58 100| 0| 0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
140303/1500Z 51 03013KT 16.1F SNOW 10:1| 1.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.175 8:1| 3.5|| 0.00|| 0.23|| 0.76 100| 0| 0
140303/1800Z 54 02011KT 16.4F SNOW 14:1| 3.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.257 10:1| 7.1|| 0.00|| 0.23|| 1.02 100| 0| 0
140303/2100Z 57 36012KT 17.0F SNOW 17:1| 3.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.177 12:1| 10.1|| 0.00|| 0.23|| 1.19 100| 0| 0
140304/0000Z 60 36009KT 16.2F SNOW 11:1| 0.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.038 12:1| 10.6|| 0.00|| 0.23|| 1.23 100| 0| 0

 

MRB:

 

140302/2100Z 33 01009KT 35.5F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.037 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.04 0| 0|100
140303/0000Z 36 01006KT 33.0F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.188 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.22 0| 0|100
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
140303/0300Z 39 03007KT 31.4F SNOW 7:1| 0.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.129 7:1| 0.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.35 100| 0| 0
140303/0600Z 42 03008KT 28.7F SNOW 8:1| 1.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.116 8:1| 1.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.47 100| 0| 0
140303/0900Z 45 03011KT 24.7F SNOW 10:1| 1.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.102 8:1| 2.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.57 100| 0| 0
140303/1200Z 48 03012KT 18.4F SNOW 11:1| 0.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.049 9:1| 3.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.62 100| 0| 0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
140303/1500Z 51 03010KT 15.5F SNOW 12:1| 1.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.102 9:1| 4.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.72 100| 0| 0
140303/1800Z 54 02009KT 15.3F SNOW 14:1| 2.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.198 11:1| 7.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.92 100| 0| 0
140303/2100Z 57 01007KT 15.3F SNOW 18:1| 2.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.148 12:1| 10.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.07 100| 0| 0
140304/0000Z 60 34005KT 14.3F SNOW 21:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.015 12:1| 10.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.08 100| 0| 0

[nw baltimore wx]

that would have been a helluva storm to witness.

 

Yes, it would have been.  DC got its largest March snow from the same storm at 11.5" on March 29th, the Palm Sunday Storm.  I guess IAD would have done the same if they were there, but their record is from the '93 Superstorm at 13.9"

[Rhode Islander in Balto]

Wow, I think I need to disappear from here more often....seems like every time I do, we get a legit threat. March snow is awesome, particularly when it has the chance to be powdery.

Question--have the models backed off from the crazy temp gradient they were showing for tomorrow (particularly the NAM --60 in Balt and 32 in York, PA)? I know our high on Sunday won't have much of an impact on this storm, just curious as to the recent changes.

[gymengineer]

Yes, it would have been. DC got its largest March snow from the same storm at 11.5" on March 29th, the Palm Sunday Storm. I guess IAD would have done the same if they were there, but their record is from the '93 Superstorm at 13.9"

Tough call between that one and 3/58. My guess is that IAD got more on 3/58 because Palm Sunday had more of a latitude gradient than 3/58.

[T. August]

OT, the 12z GGEM shows a solid hit on the 7th. According to WeatherBELL maps, over a foot for areas that already got hit by the upcoming storm.

 

Crazy...

[nw baltimore wx]

Tough call between that one and 3/58. My guess is that IAD got more on 3/58 because Palm Sunday had more of a latitude gradient than 3/58.

 

The LWX "DC Winters" page is a fun read.  How cool would it be if there were snow maps for the older storms?

 

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/lwx/winter/DC-Winters.htm

[Deck Pic]

You guys should look at soundings and not necessarily snow algorithms that won't always be correct.

 

This is probably the worst thing about our forum...snowmaps and snow charts and snow algorithms.  I think people just like colors and fun grids....Anyone who cares at all about forecasting will use soundings as an integral tool.

 

We shouldn't worry about a southward shift, right?

 

Sorry about the weenie question, but I'm in NE MD...

 

Stop being circuitous and after every model run just ask, "Was that run good for my backyard?"

 

Why do people think March snow is rare? Rare is once every few decades. If anything, we are overdue. Different story DC which is increasingly like the climate of Northside Richmond.

 

Nobody thinks it is rare except for Needs bigger boat....I assume he is trolling...unless he is actually stupid and doesn't understand stats or what rare means. 

[Deck Pic]

Canadian is a big hit FYI

[Heisy]

OT, the 12z GGEM shows a solid hit on the 7th. According to WeatherBELL maps, over a foot for areas that already got hit by the upcoming storm.

 

Crazy...

 

Surface temps are an issue, but I guess it would be a really really wet snow.

[Random Chaos]

QPF just continues to increase on each run. GFS:

 

DCA:

 

140303/1800Z 54 02011KT 17.1F SNOW 13:1| 4.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.305 11:1| 7.4|| 0.17|| 0.05|| 1.04 100| 0| 0

140303/2100Z 57 36010KT 17.7F SNOW 19:1| 3.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.186 13:1| 10.9|| 0.17|| 0.05|| 1.23 100| 0| 0

 

IAD:

 

140303/1800Z 54 02009KT 15.9F SNOW 13:1| 3.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.287 10:1| 7.2|| 0.07|| 0.06|| 1.07 100| 0| 0

140303/2100Z 57 36009KT 16.1F SNOW 21:1| 3.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.168 12:1| 10.8|| 0.07|| 0.06|| 1.24 100| 0| 0

 

BWI:

 

140303/1800Z 54 02011KT 16.4F SNOW 14:1| 3.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.257 10:1| 7.1|| 0.00|| 0.23|| 1.02 100| 0| 0

140303/2100Z 57 36012KT 17.0F SNOW 17:1| 3.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.177 12:1| 10.1|| 0.00|| 0.23|| 1.19 100| 0| 0

 

MRB:

 

140303/1800Z 54 02009KT 15.3F SNOW 14:1| 2.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.198 11:1| 7.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.92 100| 0| 0

140303/2100Z 57 01007KT 15.3F SNOW 18:1| 2.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.148 12:1| 10.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.07 100| 0| 0

140304/0000Z 60 34005KT 14.3F SNOW 21:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.015 12:1| 10.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.08 100| 0| 0

 

Am I right that those ratios at 2100z are around 15-20:1?

[T. August]

This is probably the worst thing about our forum...snowmaps and snow charts and snow algorithms.  I think people just like colors and fun grids....Anyone who cares at all about forecasting will use soundings as an integral tool.

 

 

Stop being circuitous and after every model run just ask, "Was that run good for my backyard?"

 

 

Nobody thinks it is rare except for Needs bigger boat....I assume he is trolling...unless he is actually stupid and doesn't understand stats or what rare means. 

I look at the models. I was simply asking more knowledgeable people if the southern trend will continue.

 

That was the first time I asked something "IMBY related"...

[stormtracker]

Canadian is a big hit FYI

Did you hear?  Michael Jackson died.

[Deck Pic]

Am I right that those ratios at 2100z are around 15-20:1?

 

An algorithm for ratios isnt going to be the best....DC climo is 11:1....maybe 12:1 for the colder locales....I think it is probably just good to blend rather than focus on a specfic period...IAD got 15:1 on 1/21....that might be a good gauge, though in March may want to go with 13/14 just as an estimate to be safe

[clskinsfan]

Am I right that those ratios at 2100z are around 15-20:1?

 

Dont look at the ratio's. Just look at the qpf numbers. DCA gets .98 as frozen on this run. Some ice, some sleet and around .65 as snow. 

[Deck Pic]

I look at the models. I was simply asking more knowledgeable people if the southern trend will continue.

 

That was the first time I asked something "IMBY related"...

 

no...the 1st time was the time you asked it an hour earlier

[Deck Pic]

Did you hear?  Michael Jackson died.

 

ha....I saw it mentioned once or twice....

[mitchnick]

Did you hear?  Michael Jackson died.

oh no, when?