winterymix Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Both the 12Z NAM and 12Z GFS have converged regarding temperature crash that flips most everyone to snow at or before hour 45. Almost feeling relief about the model convergence. The blockbuster cold airmass seems to be calling the shots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 You're obviously right long term though with too heavy a push of cold air not sure I'd guarantee that. He says that every storm. I lived in Westminster for 10 years, and yes it generally loves to snow there. But I also remember plenty of times getting fringed, while places south and east got the heavier snow. This type of storm looks like it could be that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 The snow climo map basically outlines the topography perfectly. No doubt those area benefit both from orographic lift and temps. We suffer a lot with a degree or 2 too warm while winchester-westminster-manchester etc cash. Even clarksburg/damascus top me all the time and they are only 2-300' higher than me. Our micro-climo is very interesting and frustrating at the same time This one is interesting and a little bit different. The temps are crashing from north to south instead of west to east. But as always some elevation cant hurt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 This one is interesting and a little bit different. The temps are crashing from north to south instead of west to east. But as always some elevation cant hurt. No downsloping to ease the pain. Should be a quick drop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 This one is interesting and a little bit different. The temps are crashing from north to south instead of west to east. But as always some elevation cant hurt. No doubt. Qpf max is def a function of best moisture and lift. You could live below sea level and jackpot. I'm rooting for everyone. This could be a very special one reserved for mostly just us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 GGEM trended stronger with the shortwave, solid hit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 He says that every storm. I lived in Westminster for 10 years, and yes it generally loves to snow there. But I also remember plenty of times getting fringed, while places south and east got the heavier snow. This type of storm looks like it could be that way. Yeah, I think the cold press makes this a bit different than normal. We're not looking at a big low throwing moisture over a cold dome which is part of the mechanism for that edge band. Figuring out banding at this point is kind of a guessing game anyway. I wouldn't worry too much anywhere at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 If I get 8-12" and someone else gets 10-14" who gives a fluk....you can't tell the dang difference anyway. Now if I get 4-6" and someone gets 10"+ maybe I moan a tad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ice Crystal Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 I have a n00b question and don't see a thread for asking questions like this. Can someone please translate for me what it means when someone says 12z or 18z or whatever? I've figured out that it is time related and that 00z seems to be the start of the day, but when I look at pictures is doesn't seem to translate neatly into 2 hour increments. At least I don't think it does. Can someone help me understand, in basic language? Thanks, now going back into hiding quietly.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 This one is interesting and a little bit different. The temps are crashing from north to south instead of west to east. But as always some elevation cant hurt. Yeah this is one that is more N-S than W-E. If the cold air push is a quick and strong as modeled, elevation wont make any difference with this event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 I have a n00b question and don't see a thread for asking questions like this. Can someone please translate for me what it means when someone says 12z or 18z or whatever? I've figured out that it is time related and that 00z seems to be the start of the day, but when I look at pictures is doesn't seem to translate neatly into 2 hour increments. At least I don't think it does. Can someone help me understand, in basic language? Thanks, now going back into hiding quietly.. During eastern standard time just subtract 5 hours and think military. 18z-5= 13:00 or 1pm. Subtract an extra hour during daylight savings Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 I recall that 1/30 storm. It was on the day of the polar bear plunge. If I recall correctly, that was a clipper system, and the reason for the surprise 8" was the snow to liquid ratio was off the charts at something like 20:1 to 25:1, where it was forecast to be around 8:1. not a clipper at all. Miller A, suppressed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TL97 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 I have a n00b question and don't see a thread for asking questions like this. Can someone please translate for me what it means when someone says 12z or 18z or whatever? I've figured out that it is time related and that 00z seems to be the start of the day, but when I look at pictures is doesn't seem to translate neatly into 2 hour increments. At least I don't think it does. Can someone help me understand, in basic language? Thanks, now going back into hiding quietly.. "Z" time is on Greenwich Mean time, and models output their time in this format. In EST, 00Z is 7pm, 06Z is 1 am, 12Z is 7 am, and 18Z is 1 pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 I think we are locked and loaded for a major winter storm. No worries here . As I have said several times on here, the cold will not b denied this year. That has been the trend this year. And another thing, most all events have been over performers . Also why I think the GFS with its 1.25" - 1.4" QPF is probably right. Just my wag. We're never "locked and loaded" here, even 24 hours out. We've established that March snow is rare...this would be exceptionally different than the typical heavy wet slop in March that vanishes in a day or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
birdsofprey02 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 "Z" time is on Greenwich Mean time, and models output their time in this format. In EST, 00Z is 7pm, 06Z is 1 am, 12Z is 7 am, and 18Z is 1 pm. Aka Zulu if you want to google it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Random Chaos Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 I have a n00b question and don't see a thread for asking questions like this. Can someone please translate for me what it means when someone says 12z or 18z or whatever? I've figured out that it is time related and that 00z seems to be the start of the day, but when I look at pictures is doesn't seem to translate neatly into 2 hour increments. At least I don't think it does. Can someone help me understand, in basic language? Thanks, now going back into hiding quietly.. Those times are in zulu (Grenwich Mean TIme). They are the start of the model run (when the computer kicks off the run with current initial conditions). 0z = 7pm EST; generally these models come out between 10 and 11pm; ECMWF is closer to 1:30 am 6z = 1am EST; generally these models come out between 4 and 5am 12z = 7am EST; generally these models come out between 10 and 11am; ECMWF is closer to 1:30 pm 18z = 1pm EST; generally these models come out between 4 and 5pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Yeah, I think the cold press makes this a bit different than normal. We're not looking at a big low throwing moisture over a cold dome which is part of the mechanism for that edge band. Figuring out banding at this point is kind of a guessing game anyway. I wouldn't worry too much anywhere at this point. Agree. Carroll county usually gets bonus snow with a strong low moving SW to NE up the coast, with Atlantic moisture inflow and the extra lift due to the alignment of Parrs ridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 I have a n00b question and don't see a thread for asking questions like this. Can someone please translate for me what it means when someone says 12z or 18z or whatever? I've figured out that it is time related and that 00z seems to be the start of the day, but when I look at pictures is doesn't seem to translate neatly into 2 hour increments. At least I don't think it does. Can someone help me understand, in basic language? Thanks, now going back into hiding quietly.. z stand for 'Zulu', the time at the Greenwich Meridian. It is used for coordination in the military and sciences. Locally we need to translate Zulu to east coast time so here are the conversions for you: 00z (Midnight) = 7:00 pm 06z (6:00 am) = 1:00 am 12z (Noon) = 7:00 am 18z (6:00 pm) = 1:00 pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ice Crystal Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Thank you so much for answering that question for me. I've been wondering for over a year. And one more- who is DT? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 A little OT. But the GFS is pretty cold throughout the entire run. This may not be the last snow of this incredible winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 He says that every storm. I lived in Westminster for 10 years, and yes it generally loves to snow there. But I also remember plenty of times getting fringed, while places south and east got the heavier snow. This type of storm looks like it could be that way. I don't think they get fringed on the biggies very often at all. I bet that is very, very rare. Yeah, missing a 2 inch surprise clipper or something, sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 If I get 8-12" and someone else gets 10-14" who gives a fluk....you can't tell the dang difference anyway. Now if I get 4-6" and someone gets 10"+ maybe I moan a tad I don't want any ice. How do I get there? #wishcasting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Thank you so much for answering that question for me. I've been wondering for over a year. And one more- who is DT? David Tolleris, from wxrisk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Those times are in zulu (Grenwich Mean TIme). They are the start of the model run (when the computer kicks off the run with current initial conditions). 0z = 7pm EST; generally these models come out between 10 and 11pm; ECMWF is closer to 1:30 am 6z = 1am EST; generally these models come out between 4 and 5am 12z = 7am EST; generally these models come out between 10 and 11am; ECMWF is closer to 1:30 pm 18z = 1pm EST; generally these models come out between 4 and 5pm z stand for 'Zulu', the time at the Greenwich Meridian. It is used for coordination in the military and sciences. Locally we need to translate Zulu to east coast time so here are the conversions for you: 00z (Midnight) = 7:00 pm 06z (6:00 am) = 1:00 am 12z (Noon) = 7:00 am 18z (6:00 pm) = 1:00 pm Until next weekend, then add an hour to the right hand columns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Agree. Carroll county usually gets bonus snow with a strong low moving SW to NE up the coast, with Atlantic moisture inflow and the extra lift due to the alignment of Parrs ridge.I think the biggest issue is the cold air is very dry. So we could see a pretty sharp cutoff on the northern edge. But yeah as of now I wouldn't get too bent out of shape anywhere around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 I don't think they get fringed on the biggies very often at all. I bet that is very, very rare. Yeah, missing a 2 inch surprise clipper or something, sure. No not the big ones. Although where I live now did get more snow in the blizz of 79, but I certainly wasn't fringed up there in that storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 I think the biggest issue is the cold air is very dry. So we could see a pretty sharp cutoff on the northern edge. But yeah as of now I wouldn't get too bent out of shape anywhere around here. Yeah this LOOKS like it should make pretty much everyone happy. Hell even Richmond might get a few inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Why do people think March snow is rare? Rare is once every few decades. If anything, we are overdue. Different story DC which is increasingly like the climate of Northside Richmond. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardmeiser Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 ummm.....did anyone look at the 72hr surface temps on the 12Z NAM? YIKESSSSSSSS!!!!!!! http://68.226.77.253/text/NAM80km/NAM_Kbwi.txt http://68.226.77.253/text/NAM80km/NAM_Kdca.txt http://68.226.77.253/text/NAM80km/NAM_Kiad.txt Amazing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 All I want is 6.5". That would put me at 4 feet for the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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