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March 2-3 Storm Disco, Part II


stormtracker

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You're obviously right long term though with too heavy a push of cold air not sure I'd guarantee that.

He says that every storm. I lived in Westminster for 10 years, and yes it generally loves to snow there. But I also remember plenty of times getting fringed, while places south and east got the heavier snow. This type of storm looks like it could be that way.

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The snow climo map basically outlines the topography perfectly. No doubt those area benefit both from orographic lift and temps. We suffer a lot with a degree or 2 too warm while winchester-westminster-manchester etc cash. Even clarksburg/damascus top me all the time and they are only 2-300' higher than me.

Our micro-climo is very interesting and frustrating at the same time

 

This one is interesting and a little bit different. The temps are crashing from north to south instead of west to east. But as always some elevation cant hurt.

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This one is interesting and a little bit different. The temps are crashing from north to south instead of west to east. But as always some elevation cant hurt.

No doubt. Qpf max is def a function of best moisture and lift. You could live below sea level and jackpot. I'm rooting for everyone. This could be a very special one reserved for mostly just us

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He says that every storm. I lived in Westminster for 10 years, and yes it generally loves to snow there. But I also remember plenty of times getting fringed, while places south and east got the heavier snow. This type of storm looks like it could be that way.

Yeah, I think the cold press makes this a bit different than normal.  We're not looking at a big low throwing moisture over a cold dome which is part of the mechanism for that edge band. Figuring out banding at this point is kind of a guessing game anyway.  I wouldn't worry too much anywhere at this point.

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I have a n00b question and don't see a thread for asking questions like this. 

 

Can someone please translate for me what it means when someone says 12z or 18z or whatever? I've figured out that it is time related and that 00z seems to be the start of the day, but when I look at pictures is doesn't seem to translate neatly into 2 hour increments. At least I don't think it does.

 

Can someone help me understand, in basic language?

 

Thanks, now going back into hiding quietly..

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This one is interesting and a little bit different. The temps are crashing from north to south instead of west to east. But as always some elevation cant hurt.

Yeah this is one that is more N-S than W-E. If the cold air push is a quick and strong as modeled, elevation wont make any difference with this event.

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I have a n00b question and don't see a thread for asking questions like this.

Can someone please translate for me what it means when someone says 12z or 18z or whatever? I've figured out that it is time related and that 00z seems to be the start of the day, but when I look at pictures is doesn't seem to translate neatly into 2 hour increments. At least I don't think it does.

Can someone help me understand, in basic language?

Thanks, now going back into hiding quietly..

During eastern standard time just subtract 5 hours and think military. 18z-5= 13:00 or 1pm.

Subtract an extra hour during daylight savings

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I recall that 1/30 storm. It was on the day of the polar bear plunge. If I recall correctly, that was a clipper system, and the reason for the surprise 8" was the snow to liquid ratio was off the charts at something like 20:1 to 25:1, where it was forecast to be around 8:1.

 

not a clipper at all. Miller A, suppressed. 

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I have a n00b question and don't see a thread for asking questions like this. 

 

Can someone please translate for me what it means when someone says 12z or 18z or whatever? I've figured out that it is time related and that 00z seems to be the start of the day, but when I look at pictures is doesn't seem to translate neatly into 2 hour increments. At least I don't think it does.

 

Can someone help me understand, in basic language?

 

Thanks, now going back into hiding quietly..

 

"Z" time is on Greenwich Mean time, and models output their time in this format. In EST, 00Z is 7pm, 06Z is 1 am, 12Z is 7 am, and 18Z is 1 pm. 

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I think we are locked and loaded for a major winter storm. No worries here . As I have said several times on here, the cold will not b denied this year. That has been the trend this year. And another thing, most all events have been over performers . Also why I think the GFS with its 1.25" - 1.4" QPF is probably right. Just my wag.

We're never "locked and loaded" here, even 24 hours out. We've established that March snow is rare...this would be exceptionally different than the typical heavy wet slop in March that vanishes in a day or two.

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I have a n00b question and don't see a thread for asking questions like this. 

 

Can someone please translate for me what it means when someone says 12z or 18z or whatever? I've figured out that it is time related and that 00z seems to be the start of the day, but when I look at pictures is doesn't seem to translate neatly into 2 hour increments. At least I don't think it does.

 

Can someone help me understand, in basic language?

 

Thanks, now going back into hiding quietly..

 

Those times are in zulu (Grenwich Mean TIme). They are the start of the model run (when the computer kicks off the run with current initial conditions).

 

0z = 7pm EST; generally these models come out between 10 and 11pm; ECMWF is closer to 1:30 am

6z = 1am EST; generally these models come out between 4 and 5am

12z = 7am EST; generally these models come out between 10 and 11am; ECMWF is closer to 1:30 pm

18z = 1pm EST; generally these models come out between 4 and 5pm

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Yeah, I think the cold press makes this a bit different than normal.  We're not looking at a big low throwing moisture over a cold dome which is part of the mechanism for that edge band. Figuring out banding at this point is kind of a guessing game anyway.  I wouldn't worry too much anywhere at this point.

Agree. Carroll county usually gets bonus snow with a strong low moving SW to NE up the coast, with Atlantic moisture inflow and the extra lift due to the alignment of Parrs ridge.

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I have a n00b question and don't see a thread for asking questions like this. 

 

Can someone please translate for me what it means when someone says 12z or 18z or whatever? I've figured out that it is time related and that 00z seems to be the start of the day, but when I look at pictures is doesn't seem to translate neatly into 2 hour increments. At least I don't think it does.

 

Can someone help me understand, in basic language?

 

Thanks, now going back into hiding quietly..

z stand for 'Zulu', the time at the Greenwich Meridian.  It is used for coordination in the military and sciences.  Locally we need to translate Zulu to east coast time so here are the conversions for you:

 

00z (Midnight)  = 7:00 pm

06z  (6:00 am) = 1:00 am 

12z  (Noon)      =  7:00 am

18z  (6:00 pm) = 1:00 pm

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He says that every storm. I lived in Westminster for 10 years, and yes it generally loves to snow there. But I also remember plenty of times getting fringed, while places south and east got the heavier snow. This type of storm looks like it could be that way.

I don't think they get fringed on the biggies very often at all. I bet that is very, very rare. Yeah, missing a 2 inch surprise clipper or something, sure.

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Those times are in zulu (Grenwich Mean TIme). They are the start of the model run (when the computer kicks off the run with current initial conditions).

 

0z = 7pm EST; generally these models come out between 10 and 11pm; ECMWF is closer to 1:30 am

6z = 1am EST; generally these models come out between 4 and 5am

12z = 7am EST; generally these models come out between 10 and 11am; ECMWF is closer to 1:30 pm

18z = 1pm EST; generally these models come out between 4 and 5pm

 

 

z stand for 'Zulu', the time at the Greenwich Meridian.  It is used for coordination in the military and sciences.  Locally we need to translate Zulu to east coast time so here are the conversions for you:

 

00z (Midnight)  = 7:00 pm

06z  (6:00 am) = 1:00 am 

12z  (Noon)      =  7:00 am

18z  (6:00 pm) = 1:00 pm

 

Until next weekend, then add an hour to the right hand columns.

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Agree. Carroll county usually gets bonus snow with a strong low moving SW to NE up the coast, with Atlantic moisture inflow and the extra lift due to the alignment of Parrs ridge.

I think the biggest issue is the cold air is very dry. So we could see a pretty sharp cutoff on the northern edge. But yeah as of now I wouldn't get too bent out of shape anywhere around here.
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I don't think they get fringed on the biggies very often at all. I bet that is very, very rare. Yeah, missing a 2 inch surprise clipper or something, sure.

No not the big ones. Although where I live now did get more snow in the blizz of 79, but I certainly wasn't fringed up there in that storm.

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I think the biggest issue is the cold air is very dry. So we could see a pretty sharp cutoff on the northern edge. But yeah as of now I wouldn't get too bent out of shape anywhere around here.

Yeah this LOOKS like it should make pretty much everyone happy. Hell even Richmond might get a few inches.

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