Quasievil Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 This is my point. I see water, but not necessarily frozen water until late. Sunday looks like shorts weather. True. As the Euro and GFS showed, it doesn't get crankin' until after 4am or so. Then, it's on like Donkey Kong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jlewis1111 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Even Ric in the snow now wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 isn't the NAM outside of 24 hours suspect Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Look guys, seriously... 18z NAM is a snowstorm. No ifs ands or buts. Stop playing around. (Argh, think my original reply got zapped...trying again!)... I finally saw this too, though the NCEP site was very slow and I was stuck around 54-h for awhile. At that point, I admit it didn't exactly look all that great from what I saw (kind of similar to 12Z?), especially at 850-mb and the surface. However, once I saw the entire run, yeah, we get hammered. Basically ~9-12 hours of snow starting around dawn or pre-dawn Monday through early evening Monday. The NAM may be a tad slower with the cold air crashing in, but it does so just before or around 12Z Monday. There's some precip up to that time that's probably rain or a mix, I'd guess. Then it's all snow after that, and quite a bit of it as temps plummet through the day. As others said, about 1" liquid equivalent total. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Don Cherry's Jacket Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 True. As the Euro and GFS showed, it doesn't get crankin' until after 4am or so. Then, it's on like Donkey Kong. I worry that a lot of accumulation will get lost by the rain portions and the craptastic ratios during the changeover. Looks like there's good wind blowing from the north to crash temps, but the timing of the crash vis-a-vis the water looks dicey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Hockey Dude Jacket, its not going to all snow until late. Wasn't supposed to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 isn't the NAM outside of 24 hours suspect LOL!! Yeah, which I guess is why nobody should have been jumping ship yet after seeing the 12Z NAM earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 not to argue over small details that have plenty of time to be resolved, but the 18z NAM isn't as much snow as we think. The forecast profile at DCA for 14z Monday still has a +2 layer around 800 mb. The entire column finally supports snow by 15z, and there is still some nice snow to be had after that, but it's only about 0.3" or so liquid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Don Cherry's Jacket Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Hockey Dude Jacket, its not going to all snow until late. Wasn't supposed to. Yes, I can read forecast maps. But, .3 of liquid as frozen isn't exactly crushing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Thanks High Risk. I had a feeling that the nam had a slower changeover than just doing the 850's thing. However, it is very supportive of a wet second slug. That is probably the most important takeaway. This is a tricky evolution and not really good for the nam beyond 24-48 hours. The euro ens and gefs kinda sealed the deal for me that we are looking half decent for a mostly cold and frozen event. Snow chances are building every run. Euro ens really supported the second wave of precip being fairly heavy. I think we are in good shape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Not his fault. He's following up with questions because of other bad posts that are misleading. No. It is his fault. He's a troll and needs to join SNO on vacation. The NAM is beautiful! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Yes, I can read forecast maps. But, .3 of liquid as frozen isn't exactly crushing. it's a lot more than .3 frozen. There's prob a ton of sleet in there. It's a high impact event verbatim with heavy rates. I'm not even worried about the nam's thermal profile yet. The fact that it pummeled us with precip and crashing temps is all we really need to note. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Don Cherry's Jacket Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 it's a lot more than .3 frozen. There's prob a ton of sleet in there. It's a high impact event verbatim with heavy rates. I'm not even worried about the nam's thermal profile yet. The fact that it pummeled us with precip and crashing temps is all we really need to note. I don't think we actually disagree about that. I think its the interplay of crash to precip to p-type that we're quibbling with, and that makes all the difference in the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 HPC seems unimpressed. THE PRESENCE OF A LARGE UPPER VORTEX OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL PLAYA SIGNIFICANT ROLE IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE STORM SYSTEM MOVINGEASTWARD FROM THE WEST COAST. BESIDES BEING THE SOURCE OF THEUNUSUALLY COLD LATE WINTER AIRMASS OVER MUCH OF SOUTHERN CANADAHEADING ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE US...IT IS ALSO A MAINDRIVER FOR UPPER LEVEL CONFLUENCE AND AN INTENSIFYING UPPER LEVELJET ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHWARD DRIFT OF THE COLD AIR WITHIN THEENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET. IT IS ALSO A PRIMARY REASON THAT THESTRONG SHORTWAVE MOVING EASTWARD FROM THE WEST COAST APPEARS TOSHEAR OUT AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE EAST COAST.AS A RESULT...THE MODELS IN GENERAL APPEAR TO HAVE TRENDED COLDERAND WEAKER/FASTER WITH THE SYSTEM AS IT MOVES EASTWARD. IT STILLPORTENDS A SIGNIFICANT STORM OF SNOW/SLEET AND FREEZING RAINACROSS THE LARGE SLICE OF THE NATION BUT MAY WORK TO PREVENT THISSYSTEM FROM BECOMING TOO INTENSE AS IT APPROACHES THE EASTCOAST...MINIMIZING THE LIKELIHOOD OF VERY HEAVY SNOWFALLACCUMULATIONS.THE OPERATIONAL GFS APPEARS TO HAVE BECOME MORE SUPPRESSED ALONGTHE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE QPF ON DAYS 2 AND 3...WITH THE 12Z ECMWFFOLLOWING SUIT. IN ADDITION...THE 12Z GEFS MEANS ALSO SHIFT THEAXIS OF HEAVIEST MELTED QPF SOUTHWARD FROM WHERE IT WAS LOCATED ONTHE 06Z RUN. THAT SAID...FROM DAYS 2 TO 3...A BAND OF SIGNIFICANTSNOW WILL EXTEND EASTWARD FROM KANSAS/MISSOURI ACROSS CENTRALINDIANA/OHIO ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA/NORTHERN MARYLAND/NEW JERSEY ANDSOUTHEASTERN NEW YORK. MOST OF THE AMOUNTS APPEAR TO BE IN THE 4TO 8 INCH RANGE WITH ONLY A LOW PROBABILITY OF ANYWHERE RECEIVINGA FOOT OF SNOW.SINCE THIS SYSTEM IS STILL IN THE 2 TO 3-DAY TIME RANGE...THEREREMAINS ENOUGH LACK OF CONSENSUS...ESPECIALLY WITH THENAM/SREFMEANS/UKMET AND CANADIAN...THAT CHANGES TO THE FORECASTARE STILL LIKELY OVER THE NEXT DAY TO 2 DAYS.WITH SUCH A LARGE SHALLOW ARCTIC AIRMASS...MIXED PRECIPITATION INTHE FORM OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN WILL ALSO BE A LARGECONTRIBUTOR THE LARGE PRECIPITATION COVERAGE. THIS TRANSITIONZONE WILL LIKELY BE MOST SIGNIFICANT ACROSS SOUTHERNMISSOURI/NORTHERN ARKANSAS/THE OHIO RIVER AND ACROSS THE MIDDLEATLANTIC STATES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 it's a lot more than .3 frozen. There's prob a ton of sleet in there. It's a high impact event verbatim with heavy rates. I'm not even worried about the nam's thermal profile yet. The fact that it pummeled us with precip and crashing temps is all we really need to note. Yeah, that's what I was thinking. It's quite a bit more than 0.3 of frozen. I'd argue more than 0.3 of snow, even, though it's really hard to parse the transitions on the maps since that happens in-between times. But again, it's parsing the NAM more than 24-48 hours out, haha! I agree, the key take-away for now is a lot of QPF and temps crashing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Herb@MAWS Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 The southward trend continues ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlizzardNole Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 HPC does sound unimpressed in that disco, but that's probably a good thing for us -- a powerful storm would have been a huge hit for NYC but probably more rain for us, like solutions showed a couple days ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Pretty significant shift south on 18z with the best stripe of precipitation at 15z Monday. 0.25 precip line is now DC -- BWI instead of well in PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peribonca Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 For now we're still ok.. We are getting close to north edge but that's also better ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 18z GFS looks weird... it keeps DCA in 0.25 QPF from 12z to 21z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lsukev Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Pretty significant shift south on 18z with the best stripe of precipitation at 15z Monday. 0.25 precip line is now DC -- BWI instead of well in PA. I hate to be the a$$hole that says the GFS is usually too flat, but... Edit: between the Euro and the GFS, DC is ok for now. We're in the middle, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 28, 2014 Author Share Posted February 28, 2014 Heh, it'd be funny now if we had to worry about suppression. As is, we're good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 right now, current modeling is a general 4-6" in DCA/BWI metro after rain and taint 10"+ totals aren't near us attm (in fact, none to be found unlike yesterday and before) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 18z GFS 1"+ QPF in DCA... looks like snow after 09z MON.. have to see soundings to be sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 1.1 liquid for dca. About half looks to be snow. South trend for sure but I'll take this run all day long. Not sure how much further south it can go. Our area seems to be in a good spot for this one now. heh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 1.1 liquid for dca. About half looks to be snow. South trend for sure but I'll take this run all day long. Not sure how much further south it can go. Our area seems to be in a good spot for this one now. heh 18zgfsqpf2.28.JPG Bob, on the NCEP maps, looks like anything after ~11z (5-6am MON) should be snow. the first 1000-500mb blue thickness line is just south of DCA near EZF at 12z MON Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 The southward trend continues ...18Z GFS has 0.25-0.50" here after the 850 line goes through. Way lower than the 1.00"+ that 12Z and the Euro had. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Bob, on the NCEP maps, looks like anything after ~11z (5-6am MON) should be snow. the first 1000-500mb blue thickness line is just south of DCA near EZF at 12z MON It looks like from 9z-21z we get ~0.6 based on the instantweathermaps. From 12z - 00z its ~0.5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 18Z GFS has 0.25-0.50" here after the 850 line goes through. Way lower than the 1.00"+ that 12Z and the Euro had. GFS was dry for 2/13 as well. Toss it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Bob, on the NCEP maps, looks like anything after ~11z (5-6am MON) should be snow. the first 1000-500mb blue thickness line is just south of DCA near EZF at 12z MON Then it would be about .60-.70 snow @ DCA. Lock that up man. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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