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March 2-3 Storm Disco, Part II


stormtracker

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I still think it's likely... obviously something that globals won't pick up. I remember 1/30/2010, a storm that was crushed south, when northern MD didn't seem to have a prayer and DC seemed on the fringe, but then places north of Baltimore which were only expecting an inch or two ended up with 4-8" and lots of cool bands passing through.

This is not your typical southern system coming into an already established area of high pressure. Yes most of the time there is a shift or at least a tick north but I'm not sure it applies to this set up.

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For you, no. 

 

I will say it again, there is always a mega band just NW of where the models put the heaviest stripe. I fully expect to see huge bands of powder rolling west to east and parking over Leesburg, Westminster, and northern Baltimore County.

 

Yes. And those areas have the favored temp profiles as well. Although by early afternoon Monday. Everyone is extremely cold all the way through the column. 

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I thought that was Celsius at first and said...meh, big deal...but it's not

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This transition is similar to PD2 but with a longer lull between phases, and obviously much more precip with PD2

Ah. Was living in Germantown and was mostly snow with both pieces. Pretty cool from a met aspect with this one. An overhead collision and hopefully being at ground zero.

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Not a lot of circulation either. Just a ton of lift over pressing mega cold. Boundary placement needs to shift to move the bullseye. And it could...

In all seriousness I'm not too worried about things. A trend further south might hurt a little. The usual final 24 is a bump back north though.. so hard to say.  It would be something to get fringed to the south lol. I don't see how that happens in this range.

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I still think it's likely... obviously something that globals won't pick up. I remember 1/30/2010, a storm that was crushed south, when northern MD didn't seem to have a prayer and DC seemed on the fringe, but then places north of Baltimore which were only expecting an inch or two ended up with 4-8" and lots of cool bands passing through.

It could be. I think there's some orographic enhancement there too and not just the "northern edge" of the storm.

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Yup, pretty sick image.  The surface crashes quickly after that panel (you can see it coming from the north).

 

I'm more interested in the mid-layers and how fast they are crashing. The soundings are showing a warm nose around 825mb through to 12z Monday. 850mb wind profiles are pulling deep cold all the way from that arctic core in northern Canada, so I'm wondering how well that warm nose will actually stand up.

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I still think it's likely... obviously something that globals won't pick up. I remember 1/30/2010, a storm that was crushed south, when northern MD didn't seem to have a prayer and DC seemed on the fringe, but then places north of Baltimore which were only expecting an inch or two ended up with 4-8" and lots of cool bands passing through.

 

I recall that 1/30 storm. It was on the day of the polar bear plunge. If I recall correctly, that was a clipper system, and the reason for the surprise 8" was the snow to liquid ratio was off the charts at something like 20:1 to 25:1, where it was forecast to be around 8:1.

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I think we are locked and loaded for a major winter storm. No worries here . As I have said several times on here, the cold will not b denied this year. That has been the trend this year. And another thing, most all events have been over performers . Also why I think the GFS with its 1.25" - 1.4" QPF is probably right. Just my wag.

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It could be. I think there's some orographic enhancement there too and not just the "northern edge" of the storm.

The snow climo map basically outlines the topography perfectly. No doubt those area benefit both from orographic lift and temps. We suffer a lot with a degree or 2 too warm while winchester-westminster-manchester etc cash. Even clarksburg/damascus top me all the time and they are only 2-300' higher than me.

Our micro-climo is very interesting and frustrating at the same time

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