HighStakes Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 I still think it's likely... obviously something that globals won't pick up. I remember 1/30/2010, a storm that was crushed south, when northern MD didn't seem to have a prayer and DC seemed on the fringe, but then places north of Baltimore which were only expecting an inch or two ended up with 4-8" and lots of cool bands passing through. This is not your typical southern system coming into an already established area of high pressure. Yes most of the time there is a shift or at least a tick north but I'm not sure it applies to this set up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Random Chaos Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 ummm.....did anyone look at the 72hr surface temps on the 12Z NAM? YIKESSSSSSSS!!!!!!! http://68.226.77.253/text/NAM80km/NAM_Kbwi.txt http://68.226.77.253/text/NAM80km/NAM_Kdca.txt http://68.226.77.253/text/NAM80km/NAM_Kiad.txt Yikes indeed! Here's the sounding from near Bowie for that same time period: http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?sounding.lat=38.9833&sounding.lon=-76.8192&sndclick=y&prog=forecast&model=NAM&grid=221&model_yyyy=2014&model_mm=03&model_dd=01&model_init_hh=12&fhour=72¶meter=TMPF&level=2&unit=M_ABOVE_GROUND&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=y&output=image&view=large&archive=false Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 For you, no. I will say it again, there is always a mega band just NW of where the models put the heaviest stripe. I fully expect to see huge bands of powder rolling west to east and parking over Leesburg, Westminster, and northern Baltimore County. Yes. And those areas have the favored temp profiles as well. Although by early afternoon Monday. Everyone is extremely cold all the way through the column. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 1, 2014 Author Share Posted March 1, 2014 ummm.....did anyone look at the 72hr surface temps on the 12Z NAM? YIKESSSSSSSS!!!!!!! http://68.226.77.253/text/NAM80km/NAM_Kbwi.txt http://68.226.77.253/text/NAM80km/NAM_Kdca.txt http://68.226.77.253/text/NAM80km/NAM_Kiad.txt I thought that was Celsius at first and said...meh, big deal...but it's not Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 This transition is similar to PD2 but with a longer lull between phases, and obviously much more precip with PD2 Ah. Was living in Germantown and was mostly snow with both pieces. Pretty cool from a met aspect with this one. An overhead collision and hopefully being at ground zero. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 ummm.....did anyone look at the 72hr surface temps on the 12Z NAM? YIKESSSSSSSS!!!!!!! http://68.226.77.253/text/NAM80km/NAM_Kbwi.txt http://68.226.77.253/text/NAM80km/NAM_Kdca.txt http://68.226.77.253/text/NAM80km/NAM_Kiad.txt The 6 hour 30 degree rise makes me worry about those earthquake-like tremors. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 OT: Check out GFS at 120 hours... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 GFS is a snow sounding at 9z Monday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Ukie is going south so I hope it stops now! 12hr precip ending 60 hrs http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbcalc2.cgi?re=at&id=&zoom=.6&ti=0≥=1280x1024&mo=ukmet≤=sfc&va=prec&in=.1&pl=cf&ft=h60&cu=latest&overlay=no&mo=≤=&va=&in=&pl=ln&ft=h24&cu=latest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Incredible cold behind the storm. Freezing line all the way to NC/Virginia border 18z Tues. for high temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 4K NAM also backed off highs tomorrow in most places. And a 30 degree drop in 9-10 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 4K NAM also backed off highs tomorrow in most places. A 30 degree drop in 9-10 hours. That 30 degree drop in 50 miles is outstanding. Save that image. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 We shouldn't worry about a southward shift, right? Sorry about the weenie question, but I'm in NE MD... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
schinz Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Yes. And those areas have the favored temp profiles as well. Although by early afternoon Monday. Everyone is extremely cold all the way through the column. It is also much more about topography and lift in those areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 4K NAM also backed off highs tomorrow in most places. And a 30 degree drop in 9-10 hours. Wow, what an incredible difference between Baltimore and DC. Never seen it before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 This is very impressive and as conservative I can be I'm not afraid to say it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 We shouldn't worry about a southward shift, right? Sorry about the weenie question, but I'm in NE MD... You'll be fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 We shouldn't worry about a southward shift, right? Sorry about the weenie question, but I'm in NE MD... anything is possible, but in light of how close we are to the event, major shifts from here are becoming less likely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 This is very impressive and as conservative I can be I'm not afraid to say it! yes it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 High time for a radio show Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 That 30 degree drop in 50 miles is outstanding. Save that image. Wow, what an incredible difference between Baltimore and DC. Never seen it before. Yup, pretty sick image. The surface crashes quickly after that panel (you can see it coming from the north). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Not a lot of circulation either. Just a ton of lift over pressing mega cold. Boundary placement needs to shift to move the bullseye. And it could... In all seriousness I'm not too worried about things. A trend further south might hurt a little. The usual final 24 is a bump back north though.. so hard to say. It would be something to get fringed to the south lol. I don't see how that happens in this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Thanks guys for the answer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 According to these CMC has us flipping to snow at 46-47 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 I still think it's likely... obviously something that globals won't pick up. I remember 1/30/2010, a storm that was crushed south, when northern MD didn't seem to have a prayer and DC seemed on the fringe, but then places north of Baltimore which were only expecting an inch or two ended up with 4-8" and lots of cool bands passing through. It could be. I think there's some orographic enhancement there too and not just the "northern edge" of the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Random Chaos Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Yup, pretty sick image. The surface crashes quickly after that panel (you can see it coming from the north). I'm more interested in the mid-layers and how fast they are crashing. The soundings are showing a warm nose around 825mb through to 12z Monday. 850mb wind profiles are pulling deep cold all the way from that arctic core in northern Canada, so I'm wondering how well that warm nose will actually stand up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 4K NAM also backed off highs tomorrow in most places. And a 30 degree drop in 9-10 hours. It's pushing the cold air in quicker mostly which is good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Random Chaos Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 I still think it's likely... obviously something that globals won't pick up. I remember 1/30/2010, a storm that was crushed south, when northern MD didn't seem to have a prayer and DC seemed on the fringe, but then places north of Baltimore which were only expecting an inch or two ended up with 4-8" and lots of cool bands passing through. I recall that 1/30 storm. It was on the day of the polar bear plunge. If I recall correctly, that was a clipper system, and the reason for the surprise 8" was the snow to liquid ratio was off the charts at something like 20:1 to 25:1, where it was forecast to be around 8:1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherCCB Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 I think we are locked and loaded for a major winter storm. No worries here . As I have said several times on here, the cold will not b denied this year. That has been the trend this year. And another thing, most all events have been over performers . Also why I think the GFS with its 1.25" - 1.4" QPF is probably right. Just my wag. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 It could be. I think there's some orographic enhancement there too and not just the "northern edge" of the storm. The snow climo map basically outlines the topography perfectly. No doubt those area benefit both from orographic lift and temps. We suffer a lot with a degree or 2 too warm while winchester-westminster-manchester etc cash. Even clarksburg/damascus top me all the time and they are only 2-300' higher than me. Our micro-climo is very interesting and frustrating at the same time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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