stormtracker Posted March 1, 2014 Author Share Posted March 1, 2014 GFS destroys 54 hours...has a nice dark green over us (on Amwx maps) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Do we need to be concerned about a southward trend at this point? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Do we need to be concerned about a southward trend at this point? Not really. Slp track is pretty locked it seems. Shield will likely be wetter on nw side. I'm starting to not worry about anything Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Not really. Slp track is pretty locked it seems. Shield will likely be wetter on nw side. I'm starting to not worry about anything I always worry until the snow is deep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Based on the 850 line only it looks like we'd be all snow by 12z Monday because it's well south of DC, from 12z-00z it looks like 0.7+ with a little more to come perhaps. Nice run. Edit: It also keeps light snow around til 00z which is nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Random Chaos Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 12z GFS looks like a winner: http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2014030112&time=24&var=ASNOWI&hour=060 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 I always worry until the snow is deep. My bar is low. 3" Gfs qpf is money. Over 1" for all of us. 1.3 for dca and burbs. Love the run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 12z GFS is beautiful. Came a tad more south. According to Instantweather it looks like 10-12" from D.C. to Philly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Right now it looks like up here I might benefit from going to snow faster, but you guys down there get the fun stuff in the morning hours with the blitzing rates...Can we trade? Man I feel for Ji...sort of. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Do we need to be concerned about a southward trend at this point? For you, no. I will say it again, there is always a mega band just NW of where the models put the heaviest stripe. I fully expect to see huge bands of powder rolling west to east and parking over Leesburg, Westminster, and northern Baltimore County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jerseystorm Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Looks like S. Jersey gets nailed a little more on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 I always worry until the snow is deep. We all worry until the snow stops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 cocky SOB! I am a little right now. Overwhelming consensus and not some redeveloping POS setup. We're basically at 48 hour leads and all systems go. Even have wiggle room and stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Looks like S. Jersey gets nailed a little more on this run. Philly! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Random Chaos Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Anyone have a read on how much sleet we'll get before the changeover to pure snow sometime around dawn? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Looks like S. Jersey gets nailed a little more on this run. your pic sorta goes with the tone of ur post Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 For you, no. I will say it again, there is always a mega band just NW of where the models put the heaviest stripe. I fully expect to see huge bands of powder rolling west to east and parking over Leesburg, Westminster, and northern Baltimore County. You're obviously right long term though with too heavy a push of cold air not sure I'd guarantee that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherCCB Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 My bar is low. 3" Gfs qpf is money. Over 1" for all of us. 1.3 for dca and burbs. Love the run My bar is a little higher. I'm thinking 5". But all models show more than that. Really I won't be surprised to see 10"-12-" amounts locally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 You're obviously right long term though with too heavy a push of cold air not sure I'd guarantee that. Not a lot of circulation either. Just a ton of lift over pressing mega cold. Boundary placement needs to shift to move the bullseye. And it could... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 UKMET looks monsterous at 48 hours, cold is south of DC and the shortwave is stronger, AMAZING run! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 My bar is a little higher. I'm thinking 5". But all models show more than that. Really I won't be surprised to see 10"-12-" amounts locally. Another cool thing is the inverse progression. Ice-sleet-heavy snow is the exact opposite of how it typically works. Maybe a statmaster can step in and find a similar event. I can't think of any Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Guys im not gonna lie but I am completely shocked by this. I haven't been on in a couple weeks but I just happened to take a peek at the 12z runs and both GFS and NAM even have the 850 line to the south of me with the NAM having the minus 10 line just to the south of me as the slug of moisture comes thru my neck of the woods. Interesting to say the least. Anyone have any thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Guys im not gonna lie but I am completely shocked by this. I haven't been on in a couple weeks but I just happened to take a peek at the 12z runs and both GFS and NAM even have the 850 line to the south of me with the NAM having the minus 10 line just to the south of me as the slug of moisture comes thru my neck of the woods. Interesting to say the least. Anyone have any thoughts? We are just investigating this new surprise storm. Please check back in a few hours for more details. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 You're obviously right long term though with too heavy a push of cold air not sure I'd guarantee that. I still think it's likely... obviously something that globals won't pick up. I remember 1/30/2010, a storm that was crushed south, when northern MD didn't seem to have a prayer and DC seemed on the fringe, but then places north of Baltimore which were only expecting an inch or two ended up with 4-8" and lots of cool bands passing through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 The GFS is a massive hit. And it is COLD. Reminds me so much of 2010. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Another cool thing is the inverse progression. Ice-sleet-heavy snow is the exact opposite of how it typically works. Maybe a statmaster can step in and find a similar event. I can't think of any This transition is similar to PD2 but with a longer lull between phases, and obviously much more precip with PD2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 You're obviously right long term though with too heavy a push of cold air not sure I'd guarantee that. The heavier QPF might actually be that band. There is going to be a band of heavier QPF running well ENE of the main show, but then as the low develops, that will halt its northward progress and then slide ESE as everything pushes offshore. The GFS right now sort of has DC-BWI in its crosshairs for that. Of course if it trends north then so do the bands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 ummm.....did anyone look at the 72hr surface temps on the 12Z NAM? YIKESSSSSSSS!!!!!!! http://68.226.77.253/text/NAM80km/NAM_Kbwi.txt http://68.226.77.253/text/NAM80km/NAM_Kdca.txt http://68.226.77.253/text/NAM80km/NAM_Kiad.txt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 ummm.....did anyone look at the 72hr surface temps on the 12Z NAM? YIKESSSSSSSS!!!!!!! http://68.226.77.253/text/NAM80km/NAM_Kbwi.txt http://68.226.77.253/text/NAM80km/NAM_Kdca.txt http://68.226.77.253/text/NAM80km/NAM_Kiad.txt Did I read that right??? -8 at BWI??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Did I read that right??? -8 at BWI??? yessssss Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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