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March 2-3 Storm Disco, Part II


stormtracker

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Not really. Slp track is pretty locked it seems. Shield will likely be wetter on nw side. I'm starting to not worry about anything

I always worry until the snow is deep.

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Do we need to be concerned about a southward trend at this point?

For you, no. 

 

I will say it again, there is always a mega band just NW of where the models put the heaviest stripe. I fully expect to see huge bands of powder rolling west to east and parking over Leesburg, Westminster, and northern Baltimore County.

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For you, no. 

 

I will say it again, there is always a mega band just NW of where the models put the heaviest stripe. I fully expect to see huge bands of powder rolling west to east and parking over Leesburg, Westminster, and northern Baltimore County.

You're obviously right long term though with too heavy a push of cold air not sure I'd guarantee that.

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My bar is a little higher. I'm thinking 5". But all models show more than that. Really I won't be surprised to see 10"-12-" amounts locally.

Another cool thing is the inverse progression. Ice-sleet-heavy snow is the exact opposite of how it typically works. Maybe a statmaster can step in and find a similar event. I can't think of any

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Guys im not gonna lie but I am completely shocked by this. I haven't been on in a couple weeks but I just happened to take a peek at the 12z runs and both GFS and NAM even have the 850 line to the south of me with the NAM having the minus 10 line just to the south of me as the slug of moisture comes thru my neck of the woods. Interesting to say the least. Anyone have any thoughts?

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Guys im not gonna lie but I am completely shocked by this. I haven't been on in a couple weeks but I just happened to take a peek at the 12z runs and both GFS and NAM even have the 850 line to the south of me with the NAM having the minus 10 line just to the south of me as the slug of moisture comes thru my neck of the woods. Interesting to say the least. Anyone have any thoughts?

We are just investigating this new surprise storm. Please check back in a few hours for more details.

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You're obviously right long term though with too heavy a push of cold air not sure I'd guarantee that.

 

I still think it's likely... obviously something that globals won't pick up. I remember 1/30/2010, a storm that was crushed south, when northern MD didn't seem to have a prayer and DC seemed on the fringe, but then places north of Baltimore which were only expecting an inch or two ended up with 4-8" and lots of cool bands passing through.

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Another cool thing is the inverse progression. Ice-sleet-heavy snow is the exact opposite of how it typically works. Maybe a statmaster can step in and find a similar event. I can't think of any

This transition is similar to PD2 but with a longer lull between phases, and obviously much more precip with PD2

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You're obviously right long term though with too heavy a push of cold air not sure I'd guarantee that.

 

The heavier QPF might actually be that band. There is going to be a band of heavier QPF running well ENE of the main show, but then as the low develops, that will halt its northward progress and then slide ESE as everything pushes offshore. The GFS right now sort of has DC-BWI in its crosshairs for that. Of course if it trends north then so do the bands.

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