MillvilleWx Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 If the most recent runs hold, I may stay home on Monday. I would Fozz, but Millersville will see theirs too. 39N to 40N seems to be the place to be for this one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Great overnight and early morning runs! I was wondering which is more likely: a slight shift north, or a shift south? It may be impossible to tell, but I was just curious. Thanks. If you're talking about future runs, more likely a slight north shift since that's what models usually do at the last minute for overrunning events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 12Z Cobb not its usual outlandish ratios and < 4" of SN at DCA. Just under 5" at BWI. More than half of the precip is PL and/or ZR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 If you're talking about future runs, more likely a slight north shift since that's what models usually do at the last minute for overrunning events. Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 12Z Cobb not its usual outlandish ratios and < 4" of SN at DCA. Just under 5" at BWI. More than half of the precip is PL and/or ZR. How are you looking at 12z nam already? It's not showing up for me? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 You guys should look at soundings and not necessarily snow algorithms that won't always be correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Don Cherry's Jacket Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 10:1...but are we going to be warm enough for 10:1 for most of that storm? I'm thinking 15:1's are not out of the question by mid-storm given the super cold temperatures that are pushing in. 10:1 seems like a safe bet as always for the whole event, especially given the chance of 3:1 sleet periods or even rain early on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Random Chaos Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 You guys should look at soundings and not necessarily snow algorithms that won't always be correct. 7am Monday near the onset of the heavy precip shows we might have a little sleet mixing in with a very small warm nose. Looking at 4am it's a bit more of a warm nose so probably mostly sleet then, while by 10am Monday it is pure snow, and probably 12:1 or better ratios with the entire column in the mid to upper 20F's. And this is the NAM, which is running warmer than ECMWF and GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 12z NAM Monday sounding for DC has a warm nose above 850, looks like maybe 2 C. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 You guys should look at soundings and not necessarily snow algorithms that won't always be correct. Looks like tthe changeover is just after 12Z based on the differences between the 48 and 51 hrs forecasts. The latter is way below freezing at every level. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Looking great for us but can't forget about last March's bust..... hope it verifies this time Last March was southeast winds, this is north winds feeding off a fresh air mass coming from snow covered grounds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 7am Monday near the onset of the heavy precip shows we might have a little sleet mixing in with a very small warm nose. Looking at 4am it's a bit more of a warm nose so probably mostly sleet then, while by 10am Monday it is pure snow, and probably 12:1 or better ratios. And this is the NAM, which is running warmer than ECMWF and GFS. NAM_218_2014030112_F48_39.0000N_77.0000W.png I understand why the snow algorithm is low, the precip is almost shut off by 18z. So the NAM verbatim is 6 hours or less of snow for DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 RGEM looks AMAZING. Potent shortwave, cold is entrenched Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Are we going to do a contest? My guess: IAD:6" DCA:7" BWI:5.5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Looks like tthe changeover is just after 12Z based on the differences between the 48 and 51 hrs forecasts. The latter is way below freezing at every level. What's your biggest storm this year? Looks like the eastern burbs could get some fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 1, 2014 Author Share Posted March 1, 2014 RGEM is pretty good, I gotta say. That 48 hour map is potent Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 7am Monday near the onset of the heavy precip shows we might have a little sleet mixing in with a very small warm nose. Looking at 4am it's a bit more of a warm nose so probably mostly sleet then, while by 10am Monday it is pure snow, and probably 12:1 or better ratios with the entire column in the mid to upper 20F's. And this is the NAM, which is running warmer than ECMWF and GFS. NAM_218_2014030112_F48_39.0000N_77.0000W.png You want the deeper lift above 700 if you want high ratios. High ratio stuff will be gone rather quickly in the sun...it pays to get into the meat of the WAA stuff and get some snow that has substance to it if you want it to last. I know everyone loves high ratios...but getting some snow that has a denser quality pays off in March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 RGEM is pretty good, I gotta say. That 48 hour map is potent You mind posting it? Hard to get on my phone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Random Chaos Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 RGEM at 48hrs (7am EST Monday) is looking like it's putting the rain/sleet line just north of DC. Pretty close to what the NAM is showing. That is one slug of moisture to our west at 48 hours though! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Random Chaos Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 You mind posting it? Hard to get on my phone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 RGEM is pretty good, I gotta say. That 48 hour map is potent yep, it's already changed to snow, or mostly snow at 7AM (48 hr map), and the UVVs over us are great, so plenty more to come http://weather.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/775_100.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 I know the globals are colder but it's prob smart to favor short range stuff for soundings. Nam as is looks fine to me. Room to improve too. I just want to be in the max precip stripe no matter what. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 You want the deeper lift above 700 if you want high ratios. High ratio stuff will be gone rather quickly in the sun...it pays to get into the meat of the WAA stuff and get some snow that has substance to it if you want it to last. I know everyone loves high ratios...but getting some snow that has a denser quality pays off in March. Is sun angle really a concern when we will be in the teens/low 20s toward the middle/ end of the storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 RGEM has a MECS look, for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 P1_GZ_D5_PN_048_0000.gif PT_PN_048_0000.gif a little larger precip map at 48 hrs (click on it!) http://weather.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/c36_100.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Is sun angle really a concern when we will be in the teens/low 20s toward the middle/ end of the storm? I didn't say during the storm...I'm talking about after it falls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 RGEM at 48hrs (7am EST Monday) is looking like it's putting the rain/sleet line just north of DC. Pretty close to what the NAM is showing. That is one slug of moisture to our west at 48 hours though! Thanks for posting them! Seems like the changeover happens between 4-6am for most. I likey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 A colleague of mine said the low temp 12z Tuesday if current guidance is correct might be the coldest March low temp in Washington DC in 100 years. That's a serious air mass being drawn in behind this system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 I know everyone loves high ratios...but getting some snow that has a denser quality pays off in March. Yeah we found that out last week when 3" of fluff evaporated within 2 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Gfs in line with zr for most of us between 10 - midnight tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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