Scuddz Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 This heavy load before daybreak would obliterate the AM commute The heavy stuff is well after daybreak. but still enough ice, that I would not want to be on the roads if I didn't have to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Man what a run. The 1"+ qpf contour pretty much goes through all of Central MD and into southern PA. Jackpot seems to be NoVa through DC into south central MD with 1.4" contour through that general region. Excellent run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Has to be more than that. 6hr panel at 12z is over 0.4" and that should be all sleet/zr. I'm guessing the switch to sleet relatively quick. Temps are crashing hard. Low confidence wag though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 after 12Z http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=060ℑ=data%2Fnam%2F12%2Fnam_namer_060_precip_p12.gif&model=nam&area=namer¶m=precip_p12&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20140301+12+UTC&imageSize=L&ps=model# Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 I'm guessing the switch to sleet relatively quick. Temps are crashing hard. Low confidence wag though Got it, I was taking the question to be all ice. Yeah, I think sleet is the dominant non-snow ptype. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 1, 2014 Author Share Posted March 1, 2014 lol...purpled on the NAM. Wish it could all be snow, but I'm not greedy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 NAM back in line with the globals. I'm loving the storm for you guys.... You should do pretty well too. I'm sure 6"+ is a good bet... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 LOL the 4km NAM has some 1.75-2.00 ranges showing up in N VA, I told everyone eventually the NAM would start showing QPF bombs with the temp gradient. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Every model stripes us with 1"+. There are going to be some sick rates between 12-18z on Monday. SnowTV all star show Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Feels to good to have the shades of 09-10 with the tight gradient for DC/Philly compared to NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Feels to good to have the shades of 09-10 with the tight gradient for DC/Philly compared to NYC Given how much Wiggum has just pissed me off, yessir. First time I have ever Ji-style entered another forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Random Chaos Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 NAM liquid looks more impressive than NAM snow: http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2014030112&time=24&var=APCPI&hour=060 Thinking that NAM is still having problems with temperature profiles relative to GFS and Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 With it raining for a short time beforehand, I doubt the DOTs will be able to pretreat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Tight cut off NW side, but for most in this forum its great run. 6-10 with maybe a 12" lolli here and there would be a good call based on current guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Feels to good to have the shades of 09-10 with the tight gradient for DC/Philly compared to NYC I'm glad to see our areas we live in get to reap the benefits as well as people here. It'll be nice for the storm to pop both my locations at the same time ala 2/12-13 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 4K is nice IMBY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Wow....4K @ 54. Niceeeee. Being nammed in the morning is a good way to start the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ger Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 4K is nice IMBY. Your backyard is mine too; how nice? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 I'd ignore some of the NAM QPF blobs, but there will probably be an nice fronto band in there. This should be a good one for DC and those areas east and southeast that haven't exactly been as lucky as the NW burbs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Your backyard is mine too; how nice? using the snow maps, which are adding in PL, 12-14. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jnis Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 I'm wondering if we will end up with an inch or so of "concrete" under the the snow, or will the snow insulate the bottom layer and keep it from freezing rock solid. Some school systems in MD are going to be hard pressed to open as soon as possible as state testing begins on Monday and this seems like it might end up being a two day clean up (Mon/Tues) especially if it freezes solid under the snow pack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 I'd ignore some of the NAM QPF blobs, but there will probably be an nice fronto band in there. This should be a good one for DC and those areas east and southeast that haven't exactly been as lucky as the NW burbs. Thanks Coastal. This one seems to be getting dropped in our laps. Very unusual setup for late feb/early Mar. Seems like all guidance has honed in on 1"+ of qpf. It's moving too fast to expect much more than 1.25 or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Random Chaos Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 hires_snow_acc_washdc_19.png 10:1...but are we going to be warm enough for 10:1 for most of that storm? I'm thinking 15:1's are not out of the question by mid-storm given the super cold temperatures that are pushing in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 I'm wondering if we will end up with an inch or so of "concrete" under the the snow, or will the snow insulate the bottom layer and keep it from freezing rock solid. Some school systems in MD are going to be hard pressed to open as soon as possible as state testing begins on Monday and this seems like it might end up being a two day clean up (Mon/Tues) especially if it freezes solid under the snow pack. Verbatim on the models, this will be just about a worst-case scenario for road crews and clean-up of parking lots, like 2/13-14/07. As someone else pointed out, it's always bad for road crews when we start with rain and get the plunging temps since the pre-treatment gets washed away. Again, if the models are right, then you do get a layer of melted and non-melted sleet that freezes on the roads before the snow starts accumulating on top that layer. Then with the temps overnight Monday the way they are forecast, any road that doesn't get plowed as the storm is ongoing will have a bottom layer of "concrete." Schools closed for 3 days after the 2/07 sleet storm, mainly because they could not get the concrete off of school parking lots, sidewalks, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Thanks Coastal. This one seems to be getting dropped in our laps. Very unusual setup for late feb/early Mar. Seems like all guidance has honed in on 1"+ of qpf. It's moving too fast to expect much more than 1.25 or so. I think the area getting that much QPF and mostly snow won't be as wide as some models have...but a narrow area should do real well and a lot of the region should be happy. Your little Spring fling tomorrow is coming to a crashing halt. Still watch for some subtle ticks north or south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 The heavy stuff is well after daybreak. but still enough ice, that I would not want to be on the roads if I didn't have to. I wouldn't either. Temps will really be crashing. The nam drops temps through the 20s into the teens during the day Monday. Gonna be neat storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jnis Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Verbatim on the models, this will be just about a worst-case scenario for road crews and clean-up of parking lots, like 2/13-14/07. As someone else pointed out, it's always bad for road crews when we start with rain and get the plunging temps since the pre-treatment gets washed away. Again, if the models are right, then you do get a layer of melted and non-melted sleet that freezes on the roads before the snow starts accumulating on top that layer. Then with the temps overnight Monday the way they are forecast, any road that doesn't get plowed as the storm is ongoing will have a bottom layer of "concrete." Schools closed for 3 days after the 2/07 sleet storm, mainly because they could not get the concrete off of school parking lots, sidewalks, etc. Yep...that's what I was thinking, and it seems temps will be similar to the sleet fest, at least at night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Staged Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Looking great for us but can't forget about last March's bust..... hope it verifies this time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Great overnight and early morning runs! I was wondering which is more likely: a slight shift north, or a shift south? It may be impossible to tell, but I was just curious. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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