BlizzardNole Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 What are BWI/Dulles on for the year? I'd like to get them up to 40" on the season so our region doesn't look so bad compared to PHL-BOS and the rest of the eastern 2/3rds of the country above 40N. I've already thrown in the towel (forever) on DCA. According to LWX: BWI -- 26.9 IAD -- 33.0 DCA -- 19.3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Probabilities initially come straight from the WPC 10 and 90 percentiles which are available on their page. They are a 32 member ensemble blend which does integrate factors of the sref. The forecasters then edit or tweak them to come more in line with expected conditions on a local level. They are then quality controlled and sent to webpage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 I'm as guilty as the next guy getting side discussions going in threat threads but it's prob time to limit posts to disco only from here on out. Today could be the deal sealer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Most likely will be issued within 36 hours of start of snowfall. Probably later today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 While we are waiting for the next round, I'll say a word about 9-10. I had 80" TOTAL for the winter in Frederick Co Va. Somehow the legend of that winters snow total is growing. I had 50" in 12 days from Jan 30-Feb 10, 4 events. I had a 20" and a 6" snow in December. 95% of my total snow occurred in 6 days. You can look up my posts from back then. I repeatedly said I would rather have had the snow spread out. This winter has seen colder temps and more consistent snow. I like it better than 9-10. And the great thing is, my opinion about what I like best is the only one that matters. Yeah 09-10 had some frustrating periods, between the epic Dec bomb and the super cold late Jan event, then of course the back to back destruction in Feb. But winter was over after that. I will probably never again see 65 inches in one season here, but I like that this winter has had persistent cold, arctic outbreaks, and more frequent snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherCCB Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Prob too close in for usefulness but euro ens are money. Precip max between 12-18z on Mon moved n from the last run and got wetter. Looks outstanding to me.Nam is worthy of caution but there is so much overwhelming guidance looking the same that it's easy to hedge against it. Nam is an outlier for sure. Seems like every good storm has an outlier at short range but it usually doesn't verify.[/quote Yes. All major guidance pointing to us reaching over 40" on the season. Cold will not b denied this year. Still think this ticks a bit wetter. And high ratio powder in March is so rare. Bring it !!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Most likely will be issued within 36 hours of start of snowfall. Probably later today Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheesyPoofs Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 I'd easily take 02-03 over this winter. 09-10 should not be involved in this discussion, period. This winter, while certainly cold and relatively snowy, has had its share of busts for our region. Busts really put a bad taste in my mouth. Very few busts in 02-03. The difference is we usually bust and the winter turns out generally bad, but this year we've busted but the winter has turned out generally good anyway.I certainly agree. Dec 8th of this year was painful as Baltimore and Philly especially got destroyed while MBY and the rest of the area missed out. Then the Dec. 10th bust as well.I thjink part of it is a perception issue. The last 3 absolutely horrific winters have made this one seem even better than we'd ordinarily consider it. I'm not saying this hasnt been an amazing winter--it has been incredible for sure, and assuming no bust on Monday, I'll rank it even higher. But it's nowhere near 02-03 and especially not 09-10 IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Other two products are based off the range of possibilities and cover confidence factors for certain thresholds of snowfall. These thresholds are the result of work done with emergency managers in determining what snow amounts cause problems or lead to uptick in resources and personnel and issues on roadways etc... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 1, 2014 Author Share Posted March 1, 2014 Ok guys, banter was fine before, but we're getting close in and we're not going to be so lax with allowing banter. There's a thread for banter, let's keep this one clean from this point. If you see your posts disappearing, take note. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 There is a scroll down menu on the table below that allows the user to select his/her county and a list of cities comes up with numerical values for each of the products. Looking here for trends in the forecast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 SW stronger on 12 panel Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 slower and more south on 24 panel Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Ellinwood Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 1, 2014 Author Share Posted March 1, 2014 I hate predicting a model outcome, but I think this will be better than 6z for us...not that it matters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Ellenwood is one of the better "map making" mets-- nice to see him that far south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Hi Storm Tracker, I'm newer to the forum what does banter mean and keeping it clean... Just so I understand. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 1, 2014 Author Share Posted March 1, 2014 Hi Storm Tracker, I'm newer to the forum what does banter mean and keeping it clean... Just so I understand. Thanks Banter is anything off topic or not relating to the discussion of models for this storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCAlexandria Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 U cannot ignore the nam or srefs. Climo people u should know better. I wouldn't expect more than 3-5" Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Nam on the zr 10pm schedule for many of us. Coming in line with other guidance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 I hate predicting a model outcome, but I think this will be better than 6z for us...not that it matters. agree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 stronger and south 36 panel... about 150 miles southwest of the 6z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 1, 2014 Author Share Posted March 1, 2014 Ok, I'm at 39 hours..it's definitely more south of 6z...or more suppressed...freezing line in bethesda whereas on 6z it was still straddling the Mason Dixon line. Looks like NAM is starting to head toward other guidance.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 I hate predicting a model outcome, but I think this will be better than 6z for us...not that it matters. I think we're going to be in the purple when it's all said and done referring to Elinwoods map. I just seem to remember that when we have these types of storms where it's getting colder even during the day, that are accumulations are that much better. And to think I gotta get on a plane this afternoon for Miami for 2 weeks and I'll miss the whole thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 U cannot ignore the nam or srefs. Climo people u should know better. I wouldn't expect more than 3-5" Sent from my iPhone I've been trying to tolerate you because I probably know as little as you but let the NAM come in before you reference it. A lower amount is a possibility, and we all know it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 1, 2014 Author Share Posted March 1, 2014 U cannot ignore the nam or srefs. Climo people u should know better. I wouldn't expect more than 3-5" Sent from my iPhone Use your five posts per day for the next 3 days wisely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 U cannot ignore the nam or srefs. Climo people u should know better. I wouldn't expect more than 3-5" Sent from my iPhone You cannot ignore a massive pool of mid winter style arctic air telling climo to stfu Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 NAM took away its stupid low it had over WV/N VA that was causing the inland run at 6z, this may end up being a BIG hit for you guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 I think we can now let go of our worries about the nam being a warm outlier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Still a warm layer somewhere at 12z, but about to go all snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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