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March 2-3 Storm Disco, Part II

stormtracker

By stormtracker,
in Mid Atlantic

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CAPE

CAPE

Posted
Posted

as crappy as 6Z NAM looks to Euro and GFS, I believe snowfall is as good, and probably better, than the 0Z run that had more sleet than many thought looking just at 850s

Maybe, but I looked at the soundings for mby on the 0z NAM and it was conservatively 5-6 inches of snow. 6z looks like 3 or 4.

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mitchnick

mitchnick

Posted
Posted

Either way the 6z NAM depiction just looks whacky overall. Initial push of moisture north, then it looks like a fast moving wave along a cold front.

it's too far north

at 48 hrs, 6Z NAM has the 0-850 line around State College, PA

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fnam%2F06%2Fnam_namer_051_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=nam&area=namer&storm=&cycle=06&param=850_temp_mslp_precip&fhr=051&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20140301+06+UTC&ps=model&scrollx=0&scrolly=0

RGEM has it draped across the PA/MD border (the dashed line)

http://weather.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/3285_100.gif

 

so it's not like the short range models are all bringing it north, it's just the NAM....being the NAM at 48+ hrs

 

 

EDIT: even the 6Z GFS has the 0-850 line a hair south of the RGEM at 48 hrs

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=048ℑ=data%2Fgfs%2F06%2Fgfs_namer_048_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=gfs&area=namer&param=850_temp_mslp_precip&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20140301+06+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model

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Scraff

Scraff

Posted
Posted

Great trends continued overnight. Just finished my morning read. Anyone have thoughts as to where we might see some double digit lollis? With the cold crash towards 15 or 20:1, someone hits the jackpot right? I know--mapgirl, but seriously.

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CAPE

CAPE

Posted
Posted

Where are all the warm temp worriers this morning? 50s tomorrow! One thing we have seen this winter is the ease at which arctic air masses have quickly erased brief warm ups. Just remember the spring like warmth of MLK day and the snow event that followed 12 hours later.

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winterymix

winterymix

Posted
Posted

Modelling is sometimes useful only for the signals given.

For instance, if we look at the SREF plumes for 3 hour snow, we

see a signal for a snow event from 13Z to perhaps 22Z, during daylight

hours, with crashing 850s.

 

 

So, rather than getting hung up on whether the NAM has the right idea about this being more of a wave than a low, realize it is a quick mover.

 

Don't worry about how many inches of snow; right now, it is safe to say 2" to 5" with some frozen crunch and a greater probability of increasing forecast amounts depending on radar trends.  Think about the sensible weather on Monday:  road crews may be able to keep up overnight Sunday into Monday with freezing rain and sleet and light snow.  During the day, if we have banding, the snow may not necessarily be deep but with crashing 850s, the sidewalks and roads may be terrible toward sunset and then the the precip shuts off.

I'm thinking of lots of windshield wipers frozen to windshields and people falling on nasty frozen sidewalks and then bitter cold.

 

Maybe the double digit accumulations materialize but the main point is about this being a fast mover with crashing 850s.

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osfan24

osfan24

Posted
Posted

Really? I think people forget how awesome 2009-10 was.

Within a two week period we had 4 storms that dumped 50-70" on the area..not even counting the 20" on December 19th.

The Feb 9-10 storm was incredible. True blizzard falling on a solid 20-25" snowpack, layed down just days beforehand.

 

I definitely agree with this. Yeah, this winter was much colder overall but three KU's and the second Feb storm was very cold. Also, there were a bunch of smaller storms that overperformed leading up to the February storms. If you look at the accumulation maps for that winter, my house is right under the small dot of 100+ inches of snow. I think I ended up with 104 inches or something ridiculous. I'm not even sure I'd have this winter ahead of 1996 or 2003. I'm guessing it's behind 1993 too, but I don't remember the Superstorm sadly.

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mattie g

mattie g

Posted
Posted

I actually kind of agree.. obviously not even close snow wise IMBY unless some miracle happens but this feels like more of a real winter all around.

Not even close, in my opinion.

One of the great things about 09-10 was that it actually got mild/warm more than a few days here and there. I'd far rather have three massive storms and a few moderate ones surrounded by milder temps than a big storm and a few moderate ones stuck amid fairly regular cold (especially late-season cold).

Besides, I'm still more than 40" behind 09-10 - more than double what I have now. To each heir own and ll, but that, in and of itself, is reason enough for me to question the idea that this winter is in any way comparable to that one.

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WinterWxLuvr

WinterWxLuvr

Posted
Posted

While we are waiting for the next round, I'll say a word about 9-10. I had 80" TOTAL for the winter in Frederick Co Va. Somehow the legend of that winters snow total is growing. I had 50" in 12 days from Jan 30-Feb 10, 4 events. I had a 20" and a 6" snow in December. 95% of my total snow occurred in 6 days. You can look up my posts from back then. I repeatedly said I would rather have had the snow spread out.

This winter has seen colder temps and more consistent snow. I like it better than 9-10. And the great thing is, my opinion about what I like best is the only one that matters.

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Eskimo Joe

Eskimo Joe

Posted
Posted

10th percentile - minimum - expect at least this much

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/lwx/winter/images/SnowAmt10Prcntl.png

90th percentile - maximum - could be as much as this

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/lwx/winter/images/SnowAmt90Prcntl.png

I find these quite useful...will the most likely maps go out later this afternoon?

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olafminesaw

olafminesaw

Posted
Posted

While we are waiting for the next round, I'll say a word about 9-10. I had 80" TOTAL for the winter in Frederick Co Va. Somehow the legend of that winters snow total is growing. I had 50" in 12 days from Jan 30-Feb 10, 4 events. I had a 20" and a 6" snow in December. 95% of my total snow occurred in 6 days. You can look up my posts from back then. I repeatedly said I would rather have had the snow spread out.

This winter has seen colder temps and more consistent snow. I like it better than 9-10. And the great thing is, my opinion about what I like best is the only one that matters.

You're wrong!!  :fulltilt:

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Ger

Ger

Posted
Posted

What are BWI/Dulles on for the year? I'd like to get them up to 40" on the season so our region doesn't look so bad compared to PHL-BOS and the rest of the eastern 2/3rds of the country above 40N. I've already thrown in the towel (forever) on DCA.

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kurtstack

kurtstack

Posted
Posted

10th percentile - minimum - expect at least this much

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/lwx/winter/images/SnowAmt10Prcntl.png

90th percentile - maximum - could be as much as this

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/lwx/winter/images/SnowAmt90Prcntl.png

Does a human or group of humans come up with the probabilities, or is this linked to one or more models?  What are the probabilities based on?

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CheesyPoofs

CheesyPoofs

Posted
Posted

I definitely agree with this. Yeah, this winter was much colder overall but three KU's and the second Feb storm was very cold. Also, there were a bunch of smaller storms that overperformed leading up to the February storms. If you look at the accumulation maps for that winter, my house is right under the small dot of 100+ inches of snow. I think I ended up with 104 inches or something ridiculous. I'm not even sure I'd have this winter ahead of 1996 or 2003. I'm guessing it's behind 1993 too, but I don't remember the Superstorm sadly.

I'd definitely take even 02-03 over this winter. Early season SECS on Dec. 5th, white Christmas with snow falling in the N/W burbs on Christmas Eve, surprise super clipper in early January, PDS2 sandwiched in between another two warning criteria snows, etc.

I cannot fathom how anyone would take this winter over 09-10, but everyone has their preferences, so who am I to judge? ;) I feel reasonably confident saying I will never experience another 2 week stretch like Jan 30-Feb10 again in my lifetime. I mean, we had posters from cities that average more than 100" a year coming into our subforum and saying even their city would be crippled and that they had never seen anything like that.

Also, as of February 10th, BWI was had recorded more snow than any other reporting station in the US, as the second Feb HECS put us above Syracuse, which had been #1 before. DCA was the 10th snowiest after the second Feb HECS. That is just insane and hard to wrap my head around.

People complain about the boring stretches in between the December HECS and Jan 30, but we live in the MA, you aren't going to get a snow event every week. ;) For me personally, 09-10 is my favorite winter ever and will probably remain that way for a long time, if not forever.

Back on topic, NAM about to initialize . :P

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Eskimo Joe

Eskimo Joe

Posted
Posted

FYI...

 

 

 

Sat Mar 1 13:35:42 2014 GMTNOUS42 KWNO 011335
ADMNFD
SENIOR DUTY METEOROLOGIST NWS ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGE
NWS NCEP CENTRAL OPERATIONS COLLEGE PARK MD
1334Z SAT MAR 01 2014
THE 12Z NAM HAS STARTED ON-TIME...WITH 14 ALASKAN...29
CANADIAN...70 CONUS...9 MEXICAN AND 8 CARIBBEAN RAOB REPORTS AVBL
FOR INGEST.
12Z NAM RAOB RECAP...
78073/NAS - PURGED TEMP/RH 854-847 MB...WET BULB EFFECT
71082/YLT - PURGED TEMP/RH 851-847 MB...SUPER-ADIABATIC
78866/SXM - PURGED WINDS 400-398 MB...BAD SPD
76654/MZL - 10142...GROUND EQUIPMENT FAILURE
76692/HYY - 10158...FLIGHT EQUIPMENT FAILURE
CRITICAL WEATHER DAY STATUS...
A REGIONAL CRITICAL WEATHER DAY...CWD...IS IN EFFECT FROM 1200Z
SAT MAR 01 2014 THROUGH 0000Z TUE MAR 04 2014. THE FOLLOWING NWS
REGIONS ARE IMPACTED BY THIS CWD...SOUTHERN/EASTERN/CENTRAL.
NCEP/NWSTG AND THE NCF ARE ALSO PARTICIPATING IN THIS CWD TO
ENSURE A RELIABLE FLOW OF WEATHER DATA.
OREILLY/SDM/NCO/NCEP
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Bob Chill

Bob Chill

Posted
Posted

Prob too close in for usefulness but euro ens are money. Precip max between 12-18z on Mon moved n from the last run and got wetter. Looks outstanding to me.

Nam is worthy of caution but there is so much overwhelming guidance looking the same that it's easy to hedge against it. Nam is an outlier for sure. Seems like every good storm has an outlier at short range but it usually doesn't verify.

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BlizzardNole

BlizzardNole

Posted
Posted

Where are all the warm temp worriers this morning? 50s tomorrow! One thing we have seen this winter is the ease at which arctic air masses have quickly erased brief warm ups. Just remember the spring like warmth of MLK day and the snow event that followed 12 hours later.

 

Very warm temps the day before do worry me (see 3/6/13 and 2/3/14 ), but you make a great point with the MLK storm.  Dulles hit 54 on the 20th, was still 37 at midnight on the 21st, but crashed thru the 20s and into the teens on the 21st with 8.5 inches of snow.

 

BTW Dulles finished Feb at -4.0 departure, and was more than -5 outside of the warm stretch from the 18-23rd.  Nice!

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Ger

Ger

Posted
Posted

I'd definitely take even 02-03 over this winter. Early season SECS on Dec. 5th, white Christmas with snow falling in the N/W burbs on Christmas Eve, surprise super clipper in early January, PDS2 sandwiched in between another two warning criteria snows, etc.

I cannot fathom how anyone would take this winter over 09-10, but everyone has their preferences, so who am I to judge? ;) I feel reasonably confident saying I will never experience another 2 week stretch like Jan 30-Feb10 again in my lifetime. I mean, we had posters from cities that average more than 100" a year coming into our subforum and saying even their city would be crippled and that they had never seen anything like that.

Also, as of February 10th, BWI was had recorded more snow than any other reporting station in the US, as the second Feb HECS put us above Syracuse, which had been #1 before. DCA was the 10th snowiest after the second Feb HECS. That is just insane and hard to wrap my head around.

People complain about the boring stretches in between the December HECS and Jan 30, but we live in the MA, you aren't going to get a snow event every week. ;) For me personally, 09-10 is my favorite winter ever and will probably remain that way for a long time, if not forever.

Back on topic, NAM about to initialize . :P

I'd easily take 02-03 over this winter. 09-10 should not be involved in this discussion, period. This winter, while certainly cold and relatively snowy, has had its share of busts for our region. Busts really put a bad taste in my mouth. Very few busts in 02-03. The difference is we usually bust and the winter turns out generally bad, but this year we've busted but the winter has turned out generally good anyway.

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