Ian Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 It would be something if the south trend continues. When's the last time that happened? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 It would be something if the south trend continues. When's the last time that happened? can't you come up with more pleasant local wx topics? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 They are really meant to show trends in the forecast for em community. For planning. They are updated several times per day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 It would be something if the south trend continues. When's the last time that happened? Feb 19th 2012 and Jan 17 2013, both pushed into my area from the north via modeling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 can't you come up with more pleasant local wx topics? GFS looks cold forever. It might snow in July this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 They are really meant to show trends in the forecast for em community. For planning. They are updated several times per day. That's valid.. tho there is something to be said for consistency in a snow map IMO. At least a public facing one. The changes are often minor but enough to be noticeable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Ian...The 10 and 90 percentiles narrow with time confidence grows in the forecast. The most likely scenario will fall right in between the two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 They are really meant to show trends in the forecast for em community. For planning. They are updated several times per day. Then they should match up to other NWS offices Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Ian...The 10 and 90 percentiles narrow with time confidence grows in the forecast. The most likely scenario will fall right in between the two. I'm referring to the actual total map which isn't up yet for this storm. Again, the changes are often minor but it seems like it changes 20 times a day sometimes. I don't think the audience is necessarily the people who post here though. It's not terrible or anything.. but I think it might hurt messaging when people focus on the rapid changes that happen to the map at times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Then they should match up to other NWS offices that's a whole other can of worms heh. cwa borders are like great walls at times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Interstate... They are only being tested at LWX currently. They will expand to other offices in the future... Maybe next winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Thanks for feedback Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 I appreciate it... Good night guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Interstate... They are only being tested at LWX currently. They will expand to other offices in the future... Maybe next winter. If that is the case... why does Philly have them??? http://www.erh.noaa.gov/phi/WinterDSS.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Thanks for feedback Good to have you here -- I hope you survive the board experience. LWX is great--I think NWS is the leader by far when it comes to forecasts people trust. However, we tend to be critical of forecasts here overall.. just try not to take it personally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Random Chaos Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Ok, I like the Euro! Thoughts on it though: 1. It's giving the first pulse of moisture on Sunday a decent bit of snow accumulation in WV and PA, dipping even into northern MD. The cold front location will be very important for this part. 2. The second part of the storm is a focus south, across southern MD and central VA. That plus the first pulse means around 12" for most all of MD, maybe a bit of a lower total just north of DC on a line east/west where the two pulses meet with a bit lower totals. 3. It is cold. Thinking 10:1 ratios are low for much of the storm after 7am. Going to be a touch call until right when the storm starts, but amy bump in ratios could give us a March surprise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Random Chaos Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 If that is the case... why does Philly have them??? http://www.erh.noaa.gov/phi/WinterDSS.shtml Hmm, Philly's experiment looks to have different graphics and layout. Wonder if the are testing different ideas at different offices for the same info, or if "experiment" really means "local product that isn't endorsed by national"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Hmm, Philly's experiment looks to have different graphics and layout. Wonder if the are testing different ideas at different offices for the same info, or if "experiment" really means "local product that isn't endorsed by national"? The probabilistic maps not the snow total maps http://www.erh.noaa.gov/lwx/winter/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Those are deterministic amounts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 I'm talking about the range of possibilities maps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Well FWIW, 03z SREFs are finally getting the hint... albeit late... DCA reaches 32 12z MON finally Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 2. The second part of the storm is a focus south, across southern MD and central VA. That plus the first pulse means around 12" for most all of MD, maybe a bit of a lower total just north of DC No way dude. We IP during the transition because the surface will lead the 925-700mb level during initial cold push. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 No way dude. We IP during the transition because the surface will lead the 925-700mb level during initial cold push. Hard say without seeing EURO soundings, and you're correct about warm nose, especially about h85-- but the 0c line at the surface and h85 and much more in concert then before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HECS4DC14 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 It's absolutely crazy that 37 of us, mostly non-members, non-posters are curently reading this topic, especially since no one has posted in almost an hour! Lets go DC bullseye HECS!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 It's absolutely crazy that 37 of us, mostly non-members, non-posters are curently reading this topic, especially since no one has posted in almost an hour! Lets go DC bullseye HECS!!! If your expectation is a HECS, you're going to be let down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizz Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 If your expectation is a HECS, you're going to be let down. Hey, its in his blood (username)... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 323 AM EST SAT MAR 1 2014 MDZ003>007-501-502-VAZ028-WVZ050>053-055-501>504-011630- /O.NEW.KLWX.WS.A.0005.140302T2300Z-140303T2300Z/ WASHINGTON-FREDERICK MD-CARROLL-NORTHERN BALTIMORE-HARFORD- EXTREME WESTERN ALLEGANY-CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALLEGANY- FREDERICK VA-HAMPSHIRE-MORGAN-BERKELEY-JEFFERSON-HARDY- WESTERN GRANT-EASTERN GRANT-WESTERN MINERAL-EASTERN MINERAL- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...HAGERSTOWN...FREDERICK...WESTMINSTER... FROSTBURG...CUMBERLAND...WINCHESTER...MARTINSBURG... CHARLES TOWN...MOOREFIELD...BAYARD...MOUNT STORM...PETERSBURG... ELK GARDEN...KEYSER...FORT ASHBY 323 AM EST SAT MAR 1 2014 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. * PRECIPITATION TYPE...FREEZING RAIN...SLEET...AND SNOW. * ACCUMULATIONS...POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN FOLLOWED BY FIVE OR MORE INCHES OF SNOW. * TIMING...FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET LOOKS TO BEGIN SUNDAY EVENING CHANGING TO SNOW...HEAVY AT TIMES...OVERNIGHT SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. * TEMPERATURES...IN THE LOWER 30S SUNDAY EVENING...MID 20S THROUGH MONDAY. * WINDS...NORTH 5 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH. * IMPACTS...POTENTIAL FOR HAZARDOUS TRAVEL SUNDAY EVENING FROM ICY ROADS...BECOMING SNOWY FOR MONDAY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 323 AM EST SAT MAR 1 2014 DCZ001-MDZ009>011-013-014-016>018-VAZ025>027-029>031-036>040-042- 050>057-501>504-WVZ505-506-011630- /O.NEW.KLWX.WS.A.0005.140303T0500Z-140303T2300Z/ DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA-MONTGOMERY-HOWARD-SOUTHERN BALTIMORE- PRINCE GEORGES-ANNE ARUNDEL-CHARLES-ST. MARYS-CALVERT-AUGUSTA- ROCKINGHAM-SHENANDOAH-PAGE-WARREN-CLARKE-NELSON-ALBEMARLE-GREENE- MADISON-RAPPAHANNOCK-LOUDOUN-ORANGE-CULPEPER- PRINCE WILLIAM/MANASSAS/MANASSAS PARK-FAIRFAX- ARLINGTON/FALLS CHURCH/ALEXANDRIA-STAFFORD-SPOTSYLVANIA- KING GEORGE-NORTHERN FAUQUIER-SOUTHERN FAUQUIER-WESTERN HIGHLAND- EASTERN HIGHLAND-WESTERN PENDLETON-EASTERN PENDLETON- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WASHINGTON...GAITHERSBURG...COLUMBIA... BALTIMORE...ANNAPOLIS...WALDORF...ST MARYS CITY...STAUNTON... WAYNESBORO...HARRISONBURG...FRONT ROYAL...CHARLOTTESVILLE... LEESBURG...CULPEPER...MANASSAS...MANASSAS PARK...FAIRFAX... ALEXANDRIA...FALLS CHURCH...FREDERICKSBURG...WARRENTON... HIGHTOWN...MONTEREY...CIRCLEVILLE...FRANKLIN 323 AM EST SAT MAR 1 2014 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. * PRECIPITATION TYPE...FREEZING RAIN...SLEET...AND SNOW. * ACCUMULATIONS...POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN FOLLOWED BY FIVE OR MORE INCHES OF SNOW. * TIMING...FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET LOOKS TO BEGIN OVERNIGHT SUNDAY WITH SNOW...HEAVY AT TIMES...LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. * TEMPERATURES...IN THE LOWER 30S OVERNIGHT SUNDAY...MID TO UPPER 20S FOR MONDAY. * WINDS...NORTH 5 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH. * IMPACTS...POTENTIAL FOR HAZARDOUS TRAVEL OVERNIGHT SUNDAY FROM ICY ROADS...BECOMING SNOWY FOR MONDAY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 I think Yoda has an internal alarm for the LWX WsWatches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 I think Yoda has an internal alarm for the LWX WsWatches Nah, I just figured out when they usually issue them Oh, and don't bother looking at 06z NAM... go straight to bed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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