ers-wxman1 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 They would start for this storm sometime tomorrow. Highlights min/most likely/max scenario based off WPC ensemble 10 and 90 percentile a with forecaster editing mixed in. Also have probability of exceedence graphics and range table. All part of pilot project that started back in 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 So every single model is painting a 1"+ qpf swath over us with plenty of snow at 2.5 day leads. Heh, the gut wag bust calls should stop now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 In terms of the temp profile, Euro and GFS and very similar. I'll take that combo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 I will be briefing several hundred officials tomorrow afternoon. So my court case on Monday will be postponed? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Have you guys seen the new winter probabilistic products from LWX? Please share the link Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Don't get soundings.. Can't confirm. Colder run..Snow well into nc this run Bitter cold h85 driving south. Oh yeah. They are going to get snow. But they lose a lot of qpf to rain up front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Please share the link http://www.erh.noaa.gov/lwx/winter/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 20 to 1 ratios are not out of the question for several hours before precip. shuts off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 So my court case on Monday will be postponed? undoubtedly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 I'd also have to think at some point, LWX will add wording to the effect of falling temperatures during Monday, as the guidance has been indicating that now for awhile. That's going to be a key factor in this storm. They've been hedging the max temps down some, in the upper 20s/low 30s (DC area). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 http://www.erh.noaa.gov/lwx/winter/ Oh the computer generated page... I believe is worthless Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 GFS 1 ... EURO 0 the GFS this morning got snow down to around Potomac Mills mall....The euro gets snow down to Myrtle beach... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 http://www.erh.noaa.gov/lwx/winter/ boy that minimum potential map took a lot of thought.......0s for everyone lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Really interstate? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 undoubtedly Damn... he has not paid rent since Dec... I hate the maryland court system... I should just be able to change the locks and shut the power off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Read the date and time its for tomorrow. As stated the new storm maps will not be out til later tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Oh yeah. They are going to get snow. But they lose a lot of qpf to rain up front. Only guide I have is wxbell snow maps..which has bullseye where I stated. 7 am.. it's about snowing down here. Surface and h85 temps seem to be more in concert this run.. w less ice and quick flip to snow. I have about 1.2 qpf here and maybe half after the flip to snow. Good trends. You all may have some legit 15-1 stuff fall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Really interstate? what do you mean? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 If these temps verify along with the snowfall we are looking at a once in 50 year event maybe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 How are they worthless? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Only guide I have is wxbell snow maps..which has bullseye where I stated. 7 am.. it's about snowing down here. Surface and h85 temps seem to be more in concert this run.. w less ice and quick flip to snow. I have about 1.2 qpf here and maybe half after the flip to snow. Good trends. You all may have some legit 15-1 stuff fall Yeah. I jumped the gun a little. I dont have soundings was doing the dance with the 850 line. The bullseye is definitely south of where I stated. But like you said we will get better ratios. Bottom line is its a great run. And a great day of watching models. Time to sleep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Yeah. I jumped the gun a little. I dont have soundings was doing the dance with the 850 line. The bullseye is definitely south of where I stated. But like you said we will get better ratios. Bottom line is its a great run. And a great day of watching models. Time to sleep. Agree. I'm honored to be in snow conversation now.. for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 How are they worthless? They are never really that accurate and flip flop alot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 I am being selfish... but can someone please post the snow map from the Euro... my birthday is 3/3 so happy birthday to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 The nam beyond 48 is now our worst solution. I'm good with that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 The nam beyond 48 is now our worst solution. I'm good with that and I would take the NAM in a heartbeat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 The nam beyond 48 is now our worst solution. I'm good with that ...and it's not even that bad verbatim! So yeah, that's a good thing! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 They are for planning purposes... They are updated and serve as a range of possibilities Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 20 to 1 ratios are not out of the question for several hours before precip. shuts off.[/ quote]Very possible...Ian had a temp map up earlier showing 14 degrees up our way Monday afternoon. Yeah. i saw that. I think he posted from GFS but not sure. Euro has .40 qpf falling between 12z and 0z. Surface temps the entire time falling through the teens with extremely cold 850's. Total qpf. for event for us is 1.2 but we lose about.45 to something other than snow. Looks about .75 is all snow. I guess we flip shortly after midnight. Euro has us at -4 Tues. morning. If this plays out like Euro is showing this will be an extreme event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 They are for planning purposes... They are updated and serve as a range of possibilities the biggest problem is they change too much. then again most people don't look at them as often as people here do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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