Interstate Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 I am completelyt baffled by the SREF. It has consistently been way warm in the mid-Atlantic. By 12z Monday, pretty much all of the deterministic guidance has the 2-m freezing line south, and in some cases well south, of DC. The 15z SREF has the line up in central PA, and its probability of the 2-m temperature being below freezing in DC is under 20%. I can't recall ever seeing it behave like this. Cause for concern? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherCCB Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 euroqpf2.28.JPG A chunk of that total to the nw and south of the md is plain rain. Really like the trends today. I just have think QPF will increase a bit. I mean, have you seen that sw out ithe PAC ? And the gulf is open. Think like all events this year we trend somewhat wetter. Just my take. Any thoughts ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 you get roughly 1.1"... euroqpf2.28.JPG A chunk of that total to the nw and south of the md is plain rain. Thanks guys. That's a bit north of the GFS with precip isn't it? I've only been able to steal a quick glance, so I could be off.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Sorry if this was already addressed, but I hear from CWG that the Euro Ensembles are much colder? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 PV on NAM is in a really good spot right now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Really like the trends today. I just have think QPF will increase a bit. I mean, have you seen that sw out ithe PAC ? And the gulf is open. Think like all events this year we trend somewhat wetter. Just my take. Any thoughts ? It's a pretty wet system as is considering the speed that it's in an out of here. We would need to score both pieces (not likely) or have the second slug slow down as it moves through. I think 1" of liquid is pretty significant and upside is limited unless the evolution changes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 30 minutes until the NAM shows a foot for DC A foot to the nuts it appears Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 I see the sim radar at 60 is juicy in the TN Valley... but its so slow loading Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Euro ensembles looking pretty tight and definitely south of the op. We're about .6-.7 on the means. Looks like a big cva bulleye between 7am-1pm Monday but plenty good for us too. Honestly, i like the breathing room. I'm finding myself accepting the fact that it will snow so I want to be on the cold midlevel side as much as possible. Euro ens show just that. Solid run with precip/850's/slp track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 The 12z NAMX parallel (headed for operations in a few months) looks much more in line with the 12z GFS and Euro. http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/mmbpll/nampll_namx/ It handles the upper features over southeast Canada differently than the ops NAM, and this leads to a colder, slower, snowier solution. This isn't too surprising, given that the para is using the background error covariances from the GFS analysis. Not that y'all needed any more reason to toss the 12z operational NAM, but this is another vote in the camp of a snowier Monday morning here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Nam is a destruction with phase 2. looks like 1"+ all snow on the tail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 28, 2014 Author Share Posted February 28, 2014 A foot to the nuts it appears You appear to be wrong going by the 60 hour panel Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 NAM weenie maps get half foot totals down to the BWI area. That's at h72. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 18z NAM has large slug coming during Mon morning... I think its snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Total precip is an inch or more for anyone north and west of Rte 50. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Don Cherry's Jacket Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 NAM looks warm and not south so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 So I am guessing the site will not be up during this event? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCAlexandria Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 NAM looks warm and not south so far. In Line with srefs? Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 NAM looks warm and not south so far. I think you're looking at a different NAM. My NAM looks like a big snowstorm area-wide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NOVAForecaster Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Looks torchy on the WxBell site, lot of rain before the changeover EDIT: i'm wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCAlexandria Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 NAM looks warm and not south so far. In Line with srefs? Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 28, 2014 Author Share Posted February 28, 2014 NAM looks warm and not south so far. Uh,...wha? NAM destroys us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 This site is going to cause me to punch something. Anyway, sim radar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 28, 2014 Author Share Posted February 28, 2014 In Line with srefs? Sent from my iPhone Stop posting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Pretty wet run. The second slug pummels the close in nw burbs. Overall crushing. First yellow is 1.0 and then .1 increments from there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Look guys, seriously... 18z NAM is a snowstorm. No ifs ands or buts. Stop playing around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TowsonWeather Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 lol @ the "warm" and "north" comments. NAM is a snow blitz area-wide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Not his fault. He's following up with questions because of other bad posts that are misleading. Stop posting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeSuck Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Seriously NAM pwns all of us. In a good way. Beautiful. These posters need to get it right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Don Cherry's Jacket Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Looks torchy on the WxBell site, lot of rain before the changeover This is my point. I see water, but not necessarily frozen water until late. Sunday looks like shorts weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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