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March 2-3 Storm Disco, Part II


stormtracker

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Hires NAM surface falls below 32 between 6z and 9z (30 degrees at 9z).  850s -1 at 12z Monday.  Probably a warm layer somewhere so sleet probably.  Sim radar at 12z looks great for what would come next if it went beyond 60 hours.

 

ETA:  Impressive temp drop on the Hires NAM.  We drop 30 degrees in 9-12 hours.  

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I think we are pretty set but on the flip side I wouldn't care much if it busted.

Really? A chance at putting a cherry on a great winter and you are basically indifferent?

I want this one pretty bad because the bullseye is small. Let's have our day on the inside looking out and call it a wrap

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Really? A chance at putting a cherry on a great winter and you are basically indifferent?

I want this one pretty bad because the bullseye is small. Let's have our day on the inside looking out and call it a wrap

If we have a chance to get more snow I'll take it especially if I have to deal with this crappy cold weather... but it wouldn't be heartbreaking since we don't really 'need' it at this point.

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Of course they're for 7AM. The 4k NAM stops at h60. I mean, I have the special, super secret 2k NAM out to h80, but I'm not sharing.

then don't advertise it as the storm lol.

don't say that it wouldn't surprise us to be all in mix at 7AM, when that seems to be the plan for DC proper. It's still a hell of a lot of precip and more to our south. You seem really negative tonight, idgi.

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Probably only a few hours....maybe 4-5.....of precip after that. I'm not really sure what you're expecting. 

then don't advertise it as the storm lol.

don't say that it wouldn't surprise us to be all in mix at 7AM, when that seems to be the plan for DC proper. It's still a hell of a lot of precip and more to our south. You seem really negative tonight, idgi.

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I kinda think the bust potential on this one is pretty high. And by bust I mean, if we start to expect an area wide 3-6 snowfall after ice. I could see that failing.

I think at this point that is the upside potential for expectations. So it wouldnt be a bust if it didn't go down like that. But it has a chance.

A bust would be no snow at all. Not seeing that scenario right now.

The second wave could mean business too and give some folks 6+. We have a nice range of possibilities. I doubt many folks are sold on 3-6 until they are shoveling it

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lolololololol @ 61 in Baltimore and 32 near York. silly models

Well it's partly snowpack initially before the cold crashes.. it is quite a gradient. Possible.. it's a pretty crazy look either way.

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Ian, that map is awesome. You could drive 83 at 60mph at drop 1 degree every minute. Windows down to heater cranking in less than half hour. Awesome

I'm kind of as interested in seeing the temp crash as anything. I was skeptical on the super cold sfc temps initially but they have a lot of support now.

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the 3-6" of snow and .25 inches of ice you think will bust.

moving myself back to lurking now.

Hey, if we get 3-6 of snow and a 1/4 inch of ice, great. That said, it is far from a certainty at this point. Wouldn't surprise me at all if that DIDN'T happen in the 'close in' metro areas. I'm not really sure why that is an outlandish thing to say. 

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Hey, if we get 3-6 of snow and a 1/4 inch of ice, great. That said, it is far from a certainty at this point. Wouldn't surprise me at all if that DIDN'T happen in the 'close in' metro areas. I'm not really sure why that is an outlandish thing to say.

not outlandish just doesn't seem to be backed up by any model or trend. being close into the metro is evil, but either way it seems we are getting a good chunk of frozen precip...

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Well it's partly snowpack initially before the cold crashes.. it is quite a gradient. Possible.. it's a pretty crazy look either way.

 

I don't think I've ever seen a gradient that tight before..... looks like one of those Arctic fronts from the Plains or midwest. 60s on Sunday would be nuts too.

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Hey, if we get 3-6 of snow and a 1/4 inch of ice, great. That said, it is far from a certainty at this point. Wouldn't surprise me at all if that DIDN'T happen in the 'close in' metro areas. I'm not really sure why that is an outlandish thing to say.

No one should be surprised per se if that didn't happen, but let's keep in mind the NAM is really the only model with such an extended period of IP before the transition...Euro barely gives the closer in areas much of a mix at all before the transition to snow and transitions much earlier, and along with the GFS at 18z would be good for a general 5-7" area wide. Of course that could all change with the rest of the 0z suite, we'll see.
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