Brian5671 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 you're analyzing noise Amen! Models are going to shift 50-100 miles north or south 48-72 hrs out...don't live and die with every model run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILoveWinter Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 No one in here should dare cry over split milk if we max out at 6-8 inches area wide. Folks that would have us at 64 inches for the year, 1 MECS away from all time record with several weeks to go and another potential storm by next FRi. S0 please lets be greatful & enjoy this obviously rare & rather magical ride. Obviously its 1 run & lets see how it plays out next 24 hours. The fun is the chase folks & thats where most of the learning takes place. Agreed, though beating the all time NYC snow record would be truly epic so aside from wanting snow due to my weenism I especially want a big storm to get us closer to the record! That being said, it has been a great winter no matter what happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 The 12z GGEM is much different than the GFS, and it's nice to see one of the major globals not shifting south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Then here is the GGEM on Monday morning as the main slug moves in As the run goes on even this model shifts things further and further south. I'm starting to think that for NYC this will be over before dark on Monday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Shifting 50-100 miles on one Run is not normal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 28, 2014 Author Share Posted February 28, 2014 Then here is the GGEM on Monday morning as the main slug moves in That should raise a red flag for the 12z GFS run for those ready to storm cancel three out still Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 GGEM and NAM still like the two wave deal... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Yeah the 12z GGEM has ten hours of snow at KNYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Shifting 50-100 miles on one Run is not normal I don't think 50 mile shifts are abnormal/anomalous for 70 hours out, especially in the winter when multiple pieces of energy are interacting. Just my experience, but as always I'll defer to the experts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 I love this gfs run, I was worried about a north trend rather than suppression as these systems do tend to make last minute northward adjustments, so this gives the area more wiggle room. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 The Canadian looks like a glorified frontal passage Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 The 06z GFS was the un selfish run, the one where the whole area gets nailed. Luckily we're still 48-72 hours out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Models, especially the GFS like to underplay southern stream energy. Look at it having wiggle room, before almost inevitable NW trend begins inside 24-48hr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 One thing to also bear in mind is that the 0z ECWMF had a much broader area of qpf in the 0.75"-1.00" range than the 12z GFS did. It will be interesting to see what the 12z ECMWF shows. Given all the models so far, it's probably a little premature to declare that a trend has started with much confidence. Instead, the situation bears watching. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 The Canadian looks like a glorified frontal passage Yeah, the Canadian is horrific, like I said, 10 hours of snow at KNYC, at best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard-on-GFS Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 The Canadian looks like a glorified frontal passage Agreed, but given how it has seemed completely lost with this system, I wouldn't put too much stock into it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 A stronger PV, no matter how strong the southern stream vort is will always win out. And so far the 12z runs today show this shearing out again right as it hits the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 One thing to also bear in mind is that the 0z ECWMF had a much broader area of qpf in the 0.75"-1.00" range than the 12z GFS did. It will be interesting to see what the 12z ECMWF shows. Given all the models so far, it's probably a little premature to declare that a trend has started with much confidence. Instead, the situation bears watching. Its very likely the GFS is severely underplaying the overrunning and is probably too late starting precip and not expansive enough with it....the NAM has seemed to get several overrunning events down in the south right this year in that regard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane11 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Hazwop, did you take into account ratios at all? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Ultimately the system will play out not too much differently from what a blend of the gfs and euro show right now. I honestly don't see any reason to expect major shifts in any direction. Probably widespread 6-10" amounts for most on here. This isn't a coastal storm where small shifts play a huge difference who gets a lot or a little snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 The 12z GFS and UKMET also still have underneath the right-rear quad of 250mb jet streak. This should still cause more expansion of precip shield at least: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 If you wanna use the NOGAPS rule it would argue alot more for the 06Z GFS solution than the 12Z...the 12Z NavGEM is basically a bit north of the 12Z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Hazwop, did you take into account ratios at all? ratios in this part of the country are always overplayed. 12:1, sure. But even 12:1 gives NYC 8.52". Even 15:1 gives it 10.65" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
green tube Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Its very likely the GFS is severely underplaying the overrunning and is probably too late starting precip and not expansive enough with it....the NAM has seemed to get several overrunning events down in the south right this year in that regard. and the canadian? you've been liking the canadian all year. last 2 runs not too thrilling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 and the canadian? you've been liking the canadian all year. last 2 runs not too thrilling. That the RGEM, not the GGEM thats been good, the GGEM has been good some storms, bad on others Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 and the canadian? you've been liking the canadian all year. last 2 runs not too thrilling. The GFS and Euro are superior to it and neither the operationals or ensembles show that scenario, so the GGEM is likely out to lunch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 28, 2014 Author Share Posted February 28, 2014 The 12z GFS and UKMET also still have underneath the right-rear quad of 250mb jet streak. This should still cause more expansion of precip shield at least: Very good post that would for sure enhance more widespread snow growth Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Not going to be a direct translation of this low from CA to NY, but it's a piece of the puzzle and it sure looks nice at the moment. Edit: "nice" in the sense that it's visually appealing on the sunrise visible satellite images. The TC junkie in me says it's a convection-starved naked llc that needs to be shunned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTWeatherFreak Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Models, especially the GFS like to underplay southern stream energy. Look at it having wiggle room, before almost inevitable NW trend begins inside 24-48hr. It is a little disconcerting though that the GFS had been rock steady for like a dozen runs.... until today 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 The 12z GEFS mean is way south. The 0.75"+ contour went from just south of Albany at 06z to HPN at 12z. You can't make this up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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