Stormlover74 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 I think the GFS two days ago showed 60hrs. worth of snow in NYC but totalling under 12", with no rain involved. We are at 24-30hrs. now but total has not changed much. Right I was responding to sferics question Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 As modeled it does not show a foot in NYC. Yeah, that's dubious. Not sure why folks get so defensive when a model changes for the worse... it is what it is. The 12z GFS depicts a moderate snowstorm for NYC and a nuisance event just a few miles north. I'd be completely out of the game were that solution to verify, but for the sake of the immediate metro, I would definitely not want this to set the stage for the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane11 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Yes it does, Hazwop. Look at the total accumulated snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 We are looking a series of low pressure waves along the arctic front hopefully delivering the goods. No one closed, bombing low. Anyway, the 12Z run stays the course for a total heavy snowfall for NYC & vicinity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Really? I'm well south of you and my forecast was 4-8 and I got 3. Yes I'm sure, you don't forget something like that. I'm in far NE Morris County. It doesn't get any more painful than this. At least in March 01 we all got screwed together. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Yes it does, Hazwop. Look at the total accumulated snowfall. Its .8" with perhaps better ratios would be 10-12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GiantBlizzard2003 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 It sill looks good to me. You will see small moves North or South and stronger vs weaker on the next series of runs but as of now still looks good for NYC metro. I am located about 15 -20 miles southwest of NYC so I should be good. It is showing 10+ for the area on the snow maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 28, 2014 Author Share Posted February 28, 2014 We are looking a series of low pressure waves along the arctic front hopefully delivering the goods. No one closed, bombing low. Anyway, the 12Z run stays the course for a total heavy snowfall for NYC & vicinity. If you blended the 6z/12z gfs runs we're still in the game and the general vicinity as you said still prime for a heavy snowfall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Select QPF from the 12z GFS (from 3/3 0z through 3/4 0z): ABE: 0.71" BDR: 0.49" BWI: 1.01" DCA: 0.94" EWR: 0.75" HPN: 0.67" IAD: 0.98" ISP: 0.67" JFK: 0.75" LGA: 0.70" MDT: 0.80" NYC: 0.71" PHL: 1.02" POU: 0.18" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 PV is going to trend stronger. This is a southern special. 2-4" in and around NYC, MAYBE 3-6" if were lucky? Why is it going to "trend stronger". Do you have any model or meteorological support for this "prediction", because to me it sounds like pure speculation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 You've used this map alot this winter and you've really made some accurate calls with it and i once again agree with you. NYC points N/W and east still look prime for a major snowfall monday Because actual precip is the hardest equation for the model to solve . Too many people take green blobs as gospel and don't look at the lift . Which is an indicator as to where air is rising . I don`t think this shunts NNJ I don`t think this mixes in CNJ . I think this a widespread 12 inch storm , and I don't swing on every Op run Just my opinion . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Yes it does, Hazwop. Look at the total accumulated snowfall. I have and at NYC it is under a foot, not to mention those maps show everything falling as accumulated snowfall. They always overdo the accumulations, even in situations like this. I'd say 8-10" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILoveWinter Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 PV is going to trend stronger. This is a southern special. 2-4" in and around NYC, MAYBE 3-6" if were lucky? Not sure it has to trend stronger. Anyway lets see what Euro does. Also, its still only Friday... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 .70" north of the best vertvels will not produce a foot of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 28, 2014 Author Share Posted February 28, 2014 Why is it going to "trend stronger". Do you have any model or meteorological support for this "prediction", because to me it sounds like pure speculation. The strength of the PV is still fluctuating. There is no real concrete evidence of the PV trended more suppressive at this time hence that being pure speculation. These overrunning systems more often than not also have some sort of north jog as well as we get closer as well, too many people in here not big picture forecasting right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoastKU Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Deja Vu this year...3 day out weenie suicide when a model ticks away from favored solution. If a run doesn't show a MECS everyone is running into traffic. In a worse case scenerio a moderate snowfall is still a beautiful thing in March! sheesh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Select QPF from the 12z GFS (from 3/3 0z through 3/4 0z): ABE: 0.71" BDR: 0.49" BWI: 1.01" DCA: 0.94" EWR: 0.75" HPN: 0.67" IAD: 0.98" ISP: 0.67" JFK: 0.75" LGA: 0.70" MDT: 0.80" NYC: 0.71" PHL: 1.02" POU: 0.18" Phl bullseye...been quite the trend this winter for them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GiantBlizzard2003 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Not sure it has to trend stronger. Anyway lets see what Euro does. Also, its still only Friday... Just the 0Z run last night it was too North , I think it is too early to be calling this a southern special. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 I would shade more toward whatever the 12z Euro shows since it still tops at 72 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 The 12z GGEM, even though admittedly hard to read based off the B&W maps appears to be north of the 12z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 you're analyzing noise Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 The strength of the PV is still fluctuating. There is no real concrete evidence of the PV trended more suppressive at this time hence that being pure speculation. These overrunning systems more often than not also have some sort of north jog as well as we get closer as well, too many people in here not big picture forecasting right now Suppression is still the least likely outcome for most of us as far as I'm concerned. I'd rate the odds at mixing cutting down on snow totals a good bit higher than that, at least near the city. I think I-90 and north have more to worry about on that end. The UKMET actually went north from last night, so if the Euro does the same I think the GFS just had a fluke run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 you're analyzing noiseExplain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Phl bullseye...been quite the trend this winter for them. No one in here should dare cry over split milk if we max out at 6-8 inches area wide. Folks that would have us at 64 inches for the year, 1 MECS away from all time record with several weeks to go and another potential storm by next FRi. S0 please lets be greatful & enjoy this obviously rare & rather magical ride. Obviously its 1 run & lets see how it plays out next 24 hours. The fun is the chase folks & thats where most of the learning takes place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 28, 2014 Author Share Posted February 28, 2014 Suppression is still the least likely outcome for most of us as far as I'm concerned. I'd rate the odds at mixing cutting down on snow totals a good bit higher than that, at least near the city. I think I-90 and north have more to worry about on that end. The UKMET actually went north from last night, so if the Euro does the same I think the GFS just had a fluke run. Overall, IMO too much panic right now and the fact that one of our most suppressed globals the GGEM came north should be comforting but the weenies are still going to be on the edge of tall buildings Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 you're analyzing noise Meaning you think this a fluctuation within the normal spread of the model and not a concern at all? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 People that are saying "stop worrying it still shows snow" aren't getting the big picture, it's all about trends, if it is beginning a trend to the south then we are in trouble. Let's see what the euro says , we can't afford anymore of a southward trend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 People that are saying "stop worrying it still shows snow" aren't getting the big picture, it's all about trends, if it is beginning a trend to the south then we are in trouble. Let's see what the euro says , we can't afford anymore of a southward trend Bingo. We are not 120 hours our anymore. A shift like that this close is alarming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Agree with Forky....the models has been overall consistent with statistically insignificant swings both north and south over the past 4 days. Everytime our area has been near or in the jackpot area....this is a good thing. No trends have ever been associated so far with the storm N or S. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 People that are saying "stop worrying it still shows snow" aren't getting the big picture, it's all about trends, if it is beginning a trend to the south then we are in trouble. Let's see what the euro says , we can't afford anymore of a southward trend Exactly. You look at what's going on today at H5 and you see such a dramatic shift southward in one run and flags go up. It still shows significant snow for NYC proper so that's why a lot of people are not as concerned as they probably should be. I'm just concerned that the PV will go back to being more of a crushing influence on the southern stream and final outcome will be a narrow band of heavy snow that is focused near the Philly area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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