IsentropicLift Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 The difference with 2/6/10 is the models were consistently showing the tight gradient over our area for days..with a 10" difference over 50 miles. This is just one run The gradient here could almost be as extreme. The 12z GFS verbatim is a foot of snow at KNYC and 3-6" at KSWF, and that might be generous. These storms always have a buffer zone of virga on the north side, see 2/6/10 radar from about 5AM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 I find this an alarming run. Agree with Yanks. If I'm in NYC I'd be concerned. But PB is right wait for the suite. This is where the Euro becomes the best, so a very big run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SLAMSTORM22 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 12z GFS vs 06z GFS Not sure how anyone here could be happy about that shift. Make the same shift again tonight and we'll be in the same boat as New England. Relax...we will all do fine...anything over 6 inches Is a gift at this junction of the season anyway,especially after the year we have had Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 28, 2014 Author Share Posted February 28, 2014 We've seen this before. The panic that ensues is just as bad as if it went north and we tainted. Wait for the EURO to keep your sanity, also you have to look and see the 6z/12z differences have been the biggest model differences/ discrepency the past few days so they're seems to be some inconsistency there folks as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjvesnow Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 12z GFS vs 06z GFS Not sure how anyone here could be happy about that shift. Make the same shift again tonight and we'll be in the same boat as New England. I agree. The GGEM will be interesting. It was always been south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 This is just one run that shifted south - wait for the ensembles then the Euro - but one thing is certain this is a 100% snowstorm for NYC Metro proper - chances are increasing anyone north of the NJ/NY border sees very little and points north east from there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 The difference with 2/6/10 is the models were consistently showing the tight gradient over our area for days..with a 10" difference over 50 miles. This is just one run As I said 'Potential hickup' but thats the catch 22 always with models- is it a hickup or a beginning of a trend. ultimatly it will come down to physics, does the set up make sense in the physical world? Because in the end we are dealing chaos theory and if one variable is off, not weighted correctly than this one run is discounted. the next 2 hrs will tell a tale. If Euro shifts lightly to ****erwiegh the GFS then everybody will breathe again--if not then enjoy 8 hours of nerves till 9p tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 The gradient here could almost be as extreme. The 12z GFS verbatim is a foot of snow at KNYC and 3-6" at KSWF, and that might be generous. These storms always have a buffer zone of virga on the north side, see 2/6/10 radar from about 5AM. I'd be concerned if I was 50-75 miles north of nyc. That's where it could be a foot or an inch at this point. I find it hard to believe the models trend so far south that NYC gets less than 6" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILoveWinter Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Yea I actually liked the 6z run, not sure why some thought it wasnt a good one. 12z def a step in wrong direction for NYC metro, especially northern areas. Hopefully 12z is the blip though we still have plenty of time to go before this gets ironed out so expect more wobbles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Sucks everytime we have a chance of 12+ it goes down as we get closer. GFS has been horrible so I didn't get my hopes up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 I'd be concerned if I was 50-75 miles north of nyc. That's where it could be a foot or an inch at this point. I find it hard to believe the models trend so far south that NYC gets less than 6" I'm extremely concerned even where I am. As we draw closer the gradient tends to tighten, not expand. Should I mention that I didn't see a single flake from this event in NE Morris County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 When does the euro run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 28, 2014 Author Share Posted February 28, 2014 Sucks everytime we have a chance of 12+ it goes down as we get closer. GFS has been horrible so I didn't get my hopes up. GFS has done pretty damn good with this storm thus far dont know where you've been. The jumps between 6z and 12z look suspect to me as they are pretty big jumps in comparison to the consistency we've seen the past few days keep that in mind folks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane11 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 I can't believe some of you on here. It's wild lol. It was ONE RUN kids. And it still shows a foot in NYC. The trend all winter has been for models to do a south jump tango at this timeframe out from a storm and then shimmy back north. NYC METRO will get a big snow from this. Period Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 That`s prob not missing anyone in the I 80 corridor Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 When does the euro run? a little after 1p Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Yea I actually liked the 6z run, not sure why some thought it wasnt a good one. 12z def a step in wrong direction for NYC metro, especially northern areas. Hopefully 12z is the blip though we still have plenty of time to go before this gets ironed out so expect more wobbles. Some of the posters down in Monmouth County didn't like that the 06z GFS put them closer to the mix line. The fact of the matter is they were fine that run. The 12z GFS would be right on the edge of screwing a lot of people here. We can't afford this to tick any further south than it already has. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 I'm extremely concerned even where I am. As we draw closer the gradient tends to tighten, not expand. Should I mention that I didn't see a single flake from this event in NE Morris County. I wouldn't expect this from you. This is not 2/6/10. Areas north of 78 were never supposed to see more than a few inches from that storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 GFS has done pretty damn good with this storm thus far dont know where you've been. The jumps between 6z and 12z look suspect to me as they are pretty big jumps in comparison to the consistency we've seen the past few days keep that in mind folks Its because the GFS has been the king on this storm that there should be some concern. But by same token all it will take for us to be in FT++ lolipop is a 50 mile shift north so im not hyperventalating by any means Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 I can't believe some of you on here. It's wild lol. It was ONE RUN kids. And it still shows a foot in NYC. The trend all winter has been for models to do a south jump tango at this timeframe out from a storm and then shimmy back north. NYC METRO will get a big snow from this. Period As modeled it does not show a foot in NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILoveWinter Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 I'm extremely concerned even where I am. As we draw closer the gradient tends to tighten, not expand. Should I mention that I didn't see a single flake from this event in NE Morris County. Someone yesterday mentioned this wasnt a good analog due to the raging -NAO at that time so not sure the cutoff would be as pronounced this time around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 28, 2014 Author Share Posted February 28, 2014 That`s prob not missing anyone in the I 80 corridor You've used this map alot this winter and you've really made some accurate calls with it and i once again agree with you. NYC points N/W and east still look prime for a major snowfall monday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 I wouldn't expect this from you. This is not 2/6/10. Areas north of 78 were never supposed to see more than a few inches from that storm I had a winter storm warning that night for 4-8". You can't understand the pain of that storm unless you experienced it on the northern edge. The GFS starts off north and then as the heavier snow moves in it gets pushed further and further southeast. I agree that this won't be quite as dramatic but I am not comfortable to put it lightly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJWeather201 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 I think 3-6" is a better bet right now for NNJ/NYC Way to much fluctuation possible to be looking at anything higher IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Someone yesterday mentioned this wasnt a good analog due to the raging -NAO at that time so not sure the cutoff would be as pronounced this time around. The PV is the blocking mechanism here. If not, this storm would have been a raging cutter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SLAMSTORM22 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Some of the posters down in Monmouth County didn't like that the 06z GFS put them closer to the mix line. The fact of the matter is they were fine that run. The 12z GFS would be right on the edge of screwing a lot of people here. We can't afford this to tick any further south than it already has. To ease you away from weenies edge, couldnt one argue the precip shield is to condensed even if the track went a tick south? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 I had a winter storm warning that night for 4-8". You can't understand the pain of that storm unless you experienced it on the northern edge. The GFS starts off north and then as the heavier snow moves in it gets pushed further and further southeast. I agree that this won't be quite as dramatic but I am not comfortable to put it lightly. Down here in Monmouth we certainly understand. Most times the north received snow and we rain. I must admit this year has been slightly different. Since we have about 63 inches so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 In reading the pbp does it sound like a superstorm lasting into Tuesday?I think the GFS two days ago showed 60hrs. worth of snow in NYC but totalling under 12", with no rain involved. We are at 24-30hrs. now but total has not changed much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Some of the posters down in Monmouth County didn't like that the 06z GFS put them closer to the mix line. The fact of the matter is they were fine that run. The 12z GFS would be right on the edge of screwing a lot of people here. We can't afford this to tick any further south than it already has. Yanks - agree - don't understand why people don't get why folks north of NYC would be very concerned about the 12Z GFS - sure it may not verify, but the risk of much less QPF is there... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 I had a winter storm warning that night for 4-8". You can't understand the pain of that storm unless you experienced it on the northern edge. The GFS starts off north and then as the heavier snow moves in it gets pushed further and further southeast. I agree that this won't be quite as dramatic but I am not comfortable to put it lightly. Really? I'm well south of you and my forecast was 4-8 and I got 3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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