IsentropicLift Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 looking back at the GGEM over the past several model runs, crazy how it never really waivered and is the only model to never show a snowstorm for our area..It hit us really hard if you go back to the middle of last week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Win for the CIPS analogs which never showed any big hits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 So what is the new timing with accumulating snow....is it now from about midnight to ending before noon? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUMG11 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Because we're dealing with a vort lobe and not the PV itself causing this to go to crap there is a remote chance that because that vort lobe is currently way up in Canada in no man's land and its speed and exact timing are key that we could see some sort of change if its weaker or slower than anticipated...people bring up Boxing Day and 1/25/00 all the time, this is one case where we could see a substantial nrothward shift because the piece of energy thats screwing this thing is fairly minute in the grand scheme of things...its still a remote chance but its there more than it is alot of the time when people hope for a shift one way or the other. Thats why I think a lot of mets aren't completely pulling the plug yet. There is still that possibility to keep the numbers fairly high between 4-8 for much of CNJ. They don't want to drop it down to 2-4 and have it tick north last second... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Win for the CIPS analogs which never showed any big hits. Actually most of them were showing SNE hits 2-3 days ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Yeah I find the CIPS not useful. Good luck...says surprises with these. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 I know it's out of the thread.. but doesn't it annoy you guys that it's been so cold for so long and this storm is suppressed, then we get a nice coastal in perfect position on the EURO and the rain/snow line is all the way in CANADA and you know that will verify 7 days out...always does when it's rain for us....ugh! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 It hit us really hard if you go back to the middle of last week. it did, but it was the first to bail to this solution on Thursday and it was right... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metsfan Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 The northern branch energy associated with the PV escapes to quick. There is no real interaction with the southern branch energy, and thus we are left with light/moderate precipitation. The northern energy will squash the best precipitation to the south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJCowboy Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Win for the CIPS analogs which never showed any big hits. So, did I oversleep a couple days and this storm is already over? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxman9 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 So, did I oversleep a couple days and this storm is already over? yes...sorry couldn't resist Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUMG11 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 So, did I oversleep a couple days and this storm is already over? 3-5", possibly 4-8" is a good call area wide with SNJ getting the 12+ that we initially expected... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 it could still go further south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUMG11 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 yes...sorry couldn't resist I'll take a nice 3-5 to start off my March. We've been so spoiled this winter... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUMG11 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 it could still go further south It could still go further north... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Start and end times? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 It could still go further north... let's see a model show that...everything's been wagon's south past 2 days with no end in sight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 I know it's out of the thread.. but doesn't it annoy you guys that it's been so cold for so long and this storm is suppressed, then we get a nice coastal in perfect position on the EURO and the rain/snow line is all the way in CANADA It happens all the time lol. This is why we average 24-28" of snow or so. If it were that easy getting storms, we'd be averaging 40-50". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 It happens all the time lol. This is why we average 24-28" of snow or so. If it were that easy getting storms, we'd be averaging 40-50". yep, and thus why it's so hard to break seasonal snowfall records...almost was a harbinger that this was not going to work out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L.I.Pete Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Upton not sold yet: LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE SNOWFALL FORECASTS WITH A SWING OF A FEW INCHES OF SNOW EITHER WAY ABOUT OUR FORECAST POSSIBLE DEPENDING ON THE MODEL TRENDS. ONE THING TO NOTE ABOUT THE 00Z MODEL RUNS IS THAT THEY WILL HAVE MORE SAMPLES OF THE MOISTURE AND DEVELOPING JET IN THE SOUTHWEST U.S. SO WE COULD SEE THIS RESPOND AS A CHANGING TREND TONIGHT WITH MODEL OUTPUT OF PRECIPITATION IN MODELS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 it could still go further south I don't see it going any more south than it is. We do have SE ridging in place in case people forgot so it adds resistance to the wave coming across. Had the SE ridge been stronger, then we could have seen a better solution and perhaps more moisture thrown in due to a stronger thermal gradient. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Upton not sold yet: LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE SNOWFALL FORECASTS WITH A SWING OF A FEW INCHES OF SNOW EITHER WAY ABOUT OUR FORECAST POSSIBLE DEPENDING ON THE MODEL TRENDS. ONE THING TO NOTE ABOUT THE 00Z MODEL RUNS IS THAT THEY WILL HAVE MORE SAMPLES OF THE MOISTURE AND DEVELOPING JET IN THE SOUTHWEST U.S. SO WE COULD SEE THIS RESPOND AS A CHANGING TREND TONIGHT WITH MODEL OUTPUT OF PRECIPITATION IN MODELS. Hail Mary !! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUMG11 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Hail Mary !! The plot thickens... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchel Volk Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Tonight's full data runs will tell us what should really happen. The NWS see this so I do think they are right. I am still thinking a 3"-6" forcast for NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 The plot thickens... If this comes back north only to go back south again tomorrow we will all have to be committed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 If this comes back north only to go back south again tomorrow we will all have to be committed The only thing I legitimately think is coming north is the snow tomorrow night, I think that the main event post 09-12z Monday is going to continue going south for another run or two which is why I warned the people in places like PHL/ILG/BWI to be ready because the heaviest snow may end up to their south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 The only thing I legitimately think is coming north is the snow tomorrow night, I think that the main event post 09-12z Monday is going to continue going south for another run or two which is why I warned the people in places like PHL/ILG/BWI to be ready because the heaviest snow may end up to their south. I think the NAM might be onto something with that PHL screw zone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 The plot thickens... You want more Plot thickening? Here you go from Steve D who thinks Euro 'extreme ' solution is out to lunch and strongly hinting at a Move North with precp shield 'The extreme suppressed solution seen on the12Z ECMWF appears a bit extreme given the latest observations.They don't match up.' and this doozy : 'So clearly this storm is going to be more robust than the 12Z ECMWF suggested.' on Twitter 2 minutes ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metsfan Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Tonight's full data runs will tell us what should really happen. The NWS see this so I do think they are right. I am still thinking a 3"-6" forcast for NYC. I agree, but it looks like the northern stream energy may be to strong squashing everything to the south. Looking at 500mb vorticity maps the wind barbs points for the southern energy and moisture to remain to the south of the NYC region. It looks like we may only get hit from the moisture from the northern stream as it flies out in front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 I agree, but it looks like the northern stream energy may be to strong squashing everything to the south. Looking at 500mb vorticity maps the wind barbs points for the southern energy and moisture to remain to the south of the NYC region. It looks like we may only get hit from the moisture from the northern stream as it flies out in front. makes you wonder if even the southern stuff is squashed and sheared out and southern folks don't even get that much? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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