Doorman Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 PROBABILISTIC HEAVY SNOW AND ICING DISCUSSION NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD430 PM EST SAT MAR 01 2014VALID 00Z SUN MAR 02 2014 - 00Z WED MAR 05 2014...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE MID ATLANTIC....ONE OF THE MORE UNIQUE WINTER STORMS OF THE SEASON WILL BEGIN TOIMPACT A LARGE AND EXTENDED AREA FROM THE LOWER PLAINS TO THEMID-ATL STATES SUN AND MON. THE DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM WILL HAVETWO FACETS... ARGUABLY THE COLDEST AIR MASS OF THE SEASON WILLINTERACT WITH THE ANOMALOUS WET LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG THE CACOAST. A SHARP ARCTIC COLD FRONT IS PLOWING SOUTH AND EAST OFTHROUGH THE OH VALLEY INTO THE SRN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND THISTHERMAL ZONE WILL CONTINUE TO BARREL EASTWARD TOWARD THE MID-ATLSTATES AND SOUTHWARD THROUGH TX... EVENTUALLY LOCKING INTO PLACEAS AN UPPER VORTEX OVER HUDSON BAY REMAINS STATIONARY ANDCONFLUENT UPPER-LEVEL FLOW CONSUMES THE EAST. MEANWHILEUPSTREAM... THE LARGE CLOSED PAC UPPER LOW JUST OFFSHORE OF CAWILL BEGIN TO FILL AND THE ASSOCIATED UPPER DYNAMICS WILL RIDEALONG THE ACTIVE SRN BRANCH/STREAM. THE SHORT WAVE WILL EMERGEFROM THE SRN ROCKIES SUN NIGHT TO INDUCE A WAVE OF LOW PRESSUREALONG THE ARCTIC FRONT AND DRAW NORTH A PLETHORA OF LOW LEVELMOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSUREWILL SLIDE ACROSS THE SOUTH INTO THE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT SUNTHROUGH MON.NOW DIFLUENT SWRLY UPPER FLOW ALREADY IN ADVANCE OF THE SHORT WAVETROUGH IS RESULTING IN WEAK IMPULSES ALOFT TO TRIGGER STREAKS OFLIGHT SNOW ALREADY ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE LOWER LAKES.THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF SUN AND SHOULD ONLY EXPAND MOREEXTENSIVELY NORTH AND WEST OF THE ARCTIC FRONT... AS PWS STEADILYINCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS MOISTUREWILL OVERRUN AND BE UNDERCUT BY THE IMPRESSIVE DENSE AIR MASS TOSET UP A ZONE OF HEAVY SNOWFALL AND EXTENSIVE ICE/FREEZING RAINWITH SLEET. COMPARED TO YESTERDAY... THE GUIDANCE IS IN VERY CLOSESHAPE ON THE AXIS OF THIS FROZEN PRECIP AND IF ANYTHING... SHOWINGMORE DETAIL ON THE DEVELOPING DEFORMATION/COMMA HEAD POTENTIALLYDEVELOPING. WPC STAYED VERY CLOSE TO THE 12Z GUIDANCE ON A HEAVYSNOWFALL AXIS NORTH AND EAST FROM THE OK/TX PANHANDLE TO WRN PA/NYWITH THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS FROM NERN KS THROUGH NRN MO INCLUDINGTHE KANSAS CITY METRO AREA. MEANWHILE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE HEAVYSNOWFALL WILL BE AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF ICE. IN FACT... SOME ICEAMOUNTS WILL BE SIGNIFICANT AND COULD CAUSE MAJOR TRAVEL ISSUESAND POWER OUTAGES WITH THE HEAVIEST ICING OCCURRING FROM SERNOK/NERN TX NORTHEASTWARD UP THE OH RIVER... ESPECIALLY AROUND NRNAR.THEN ON MON... THE MORE UNIQUE PART OF THE SYSTEM... AS THE SHARPTHERMAL ZONE AND ARCTIC AIR MASS SURGE ACROSS THE APPALACHIANSINTO THE MID-ATL REGION TO SET UP A MAJOR SNOWFALL ACROSS DC/BALAND PERHAPS THE PHL METRO AREAS. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILLTRACK ACROSS NRN MS/AL/GA TO THE SOUTHEAST... A COPIOUS AMOUNT OFLL MOISTURE WILL ARRIVE INTO THE COLD SECTOR FOR YET ANOTHER SWATHOF HEAVY SNOW AND ICE. THE 12Z GUIDANCE HAS ALSO NARROWED THEFORECAST SPREAD... DEPICTING A NARROW BUT INTENSE DYNAMIC COOLINGHEAVY SNOWFALL BAND SETTING UP NORTH OF THE FRONT... ESPECIALLYINVOF OF THE NW QUAD OF THE SURFACE LOW. THUS HEAVY SNOW WILL BEPOSSIBLE FROM SRN MO/NRN AR TO THE DELMARVA COAST WITH THEHEAVIEST AMOUNTS APPROACHING DOUBLE DIGITS OCCURRING FROM ERNKY/SRN WV THROUGH MD/NRN VA AND DE/SRN NJ AND TERRIBLE SOCIETALTIMING AROUND THE DC/BAL AREA MON MORNING. MEANWHILE ICE/SLEETWILL SETUP SOUTH AND EAST OF THE HEAVY SNOW WITH SIGNIFICANTACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE FROM SRN AR NORTH AND EAST TO WRN TN/SRNKY... WHICH COULD BE PARALYZING.OVERALL WPC PREFERRED A BLEND OF THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF AND GFS ONMOST FACETS FOR THIS WIDESPREAD BUT PROGRESSIVE WINTER STORM. http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=qpfhsd Current 500mb Set-Up http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/dlmmain.php?&basin=atlantic&sat=wg8∏=dlm2&zoom=&time= OPC 48hrs http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/A_48hrbw.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SNfreak21 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 How is the snow growth at 700mb? Are ratios applicable to this event? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 .35 into NYC .50 to .60 into Monmouth county. North to south. Looks like 6 to 9 in Monmouth is a good call at this time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 I think the whole forum sees a coating to 2" at best Except maybe 3" areas well south of the city (not sure how far south some of you live).. A major bust for mount holly, 10-14"? And upton 4-8"? This is still trending south.. Writing has been on the wall for a while, I never gave an official accumulation forecast because I never was sold on any solution til now. The GFS was the only model showing this much snow except for 2 Euro runs, once they both joined other models our luck wore out.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
monmouthcounty11 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Looks like 6 to 9 in Monmouth is a good call at this time Could be pushing it, if I was a broadcast met I would really be shying away from anything over 6 inches unless you go SE of Philly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 When I said a few days ago that you didn't want to be north of I-84 for this one I should have said you don't want to be north of Wilmington, DE. From about the DE Memorial bridge and points south and west is the JP zone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 I think the whole forum sees a coating to 2" at best Except maybe 3" areas well south of the city (not sure how far south some of you live).. A major bust for mount holly, 10-14"? And upton 4-8"? This is still trending south.. Writing has been on the wall for a while, I never gave an official accumulation forecast because I never was sold on any solution til now. The GFS was the only model showing this much snow except for 2 Euro runs, once they both joined other models our luck wore out.. 10-14" is for south jersey only Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 10-14" is for south jersey only I know just stating that they have 10-14" forecast for parts of their zone, they have 10-14" up to central jersey and is wayyyy to high in my eyes that will be cut in half by tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 And to think people were worried about it being too far north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 I know just stating that they have 10-14" forecast for parts of their zone, they have 10-14" up to central jersey and is wayyyy to high in my eyes that will be cut in half by tonight Be thankful you don't have to make a forecast for millions of people Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 12-24 inches to a few inches. How did this happen so quickly? What looked like a MECS is now down to nothing. Hoping for a north trend at 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 OOz suite and sw sampling will be so important within next 12 hours..nkthing is etched in stone..Blizzard of 1996 was never supposedcto get past ac Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Claus Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 12-24 inches to a few inches. How did this happen so quickly? Because models that are many days out may provide unreliable solutions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Mjo in phase 8 and we getting ****. Unbelievable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 12-24 inches to a few inches. How did this happen so quickly? What looked like a MECS is now down to nothing. Hoping for a north trend at 0z. 12-24 inches to a few inches. How did this happen so quickly? What looked like a MECS is now down to nothing. Hoping for a north trend at 0z. Seen it happen to March storms many times over the decades. it's a volatile month. Could just as easily get an April storm who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUMG11 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 12-24 inches to a few inches. How did this happen so quickly? What looked like a MECS is now down to nothing. Hoping for a north trend at 0z. Don't be surprised if this happens. And this board will go crazy all over again.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Just to clear up the 18z GFS initialized with about half of the southern stream energy inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Be thankful you don't have to make a forecast for millions of people I do make forecasts for the public for all of SWCT so it's not millions but hundreds of thousands Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 OOz suite and sw sampling will be so important within next 12 hours..nkthing is etched in stone..Blizzard of 1996 was never supposedcto get past ac Seen it happen to March storms many times over the decades. it's a volatile month. Could just as easily get an April storm who knows. There were calls for 2 feet for days before the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Because models that are many days out may provide unreliable solutions. GFS and Euro kept on showing a foot plus along with the ensembles. Fail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 We're still so far away technologically when it comes to our weather models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 There were calls for 2 feet for days before the storm. Not for nyc or north. But its a moot point because these events are not comparable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 I know it's out of the thread.. but doesn't it annoy you guys that it's been so cold for so long and this storm is suppressed, then we get a nice coastal in perfect position on the EURO and the rain/snow line is all the way in CANADA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 And to think people were worried about it being too far north. I was one of them… had the fear of this becoming a SNE special. Absolutely stunned with the actual outcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Don't be surprised if this happens. And this board will go crazy all over again.... Because we're dealing with a vort lobe and not the PV itself causing this to go to crap there is a remote chance that because that vort lobe is currently way up in Canada in no man's land and its speed and exact timing are key that we could see some sort of change if its weaker or slower than anticipated...people bring up Boxing Day and 1/25/00 all the time, this is one case where we could see a substantial nrothward shift because the piece of energy thats screwing this thing is fairly minute in the grand scheme of things...its still a remote chance but its there more than it is alot of the time when people hope for a shift one way or the other. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 I know it's out of the thread.. but doesn't it annoy you guys that it's been so cold for so long and this storm is suppressed, then we get a nice coastal in perfect position on the EURO and the rain/snow line is all the way in CANADA The EURO Op is warm, but the ensembles have some big hits for late week...in fact the mean for snow on the EURO ens down here in philly is 7" for late week...Def keep an eye on it...If the low comes faster while the cold is entrenched it could be a nice wet snowstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Claus Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 GFS and Euro kept on showing a foot plus along with the ensembles. Fail. They kept showing. Until they didn't. Consistency doesn't mean much if it ends up being consistently wrong. Not to criticize the developers of these models, of course, because I think numerical weather prediction is something of a technological miracle and the fact models do as well as they do is impressive. But it's a tool not a decree. And what about the ensembles? Were you looking at every member or just picked ones you liked and decided two feet was a good number? I saw a few posts (not necessarily yours) questioning relatively low precip predictions by the NWS a few days ago. Maybe those meteorologists aren't so dumb after all... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 looking back at the GGEM over the past several model runs, crazy how it never really waivered and is the only model to never show a snowstorm for our area.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 The EURO Op is warm, but the ensembles have some big hits for late week...in fact the mean for snow on the EURO ens down here in philly is 7" for late week...Def keep an eye on it...If the low comes faster while the cold is entrenched it could be a nice wet snowstorm ya I noticed 00z last night was much colder than today 12z will be a fine line between wet snowstorm and rain if we go get a storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 I know it's out of the thread.. but doesn't it annoy you guys that it's been so cold for so long and this storm is suppressed, then we get a nice coastal in perfect position on the EURO and the rain/snow line is all the way in CANADALove the Euro, hoping for my March 2010 redux to follow this 2/6/10 resemblance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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