tmagan Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 18Z RGEM has ~0.50" for NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Mount holly Amazing difference in n monmouth to s.Monmouth only 20 miles apart. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUMG11 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Have to take a trip to AC I guess I'm actually from AC but go to school at Rutgers in Middlesex. Home getting nailed while i'm up here with a measly 4-6 lol.. Crazy I can say measly 4~6 the way this winter has gone. Oh well...heres to hoping Rutgers cancels classes! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 18Z RGEM has ~0.50" for NYC. Doesn't the GFS sometimes run off the rgem? Thought I heard snow goose mention that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saturn510 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Doesn't the GFS sometimes run off the rgem? Thought I heard snow goose mention that The RGEM is the canadians short term model. Has nothing to do with the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SleetStormNJ Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Doesn't the GFS sometimes run off the rgem? Thought I heard snow goose mention that No it is the short range of the GGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
monmouthcounty11 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 18z RGEM with about .4 for NYC all snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Thats one of your fluky RGEM off hour runs right there...its too far north I think after 09Z tomorrow night but too suppressed prior to that, it shows most of the snow later tomorrow night into Monday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 18z RGEM with about .4 for NYC all snow. And Monmouth? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevWarReenactor Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Amazing difference in n monmouth to s.Monmouth only 20 miles apart. Monmouth County is like that a lot of the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
monmouthcounty11 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Thats one of your fluky RGEM off hour runs right there...its too far north I think after 09Z tomorrow night but too suppressed prior to that, it shows most of the snow later tomorrow night into Monday I noticed that as well, it's weird and also the 18z RGEM which as you've noted has come up with some crazy things for many storms this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 I noticed that as well, it's weird and also the 18z RGEM which as you've has come up with some crazy things for many storms this year. I'm not sure it gets the sampling on off hours the US models do, its performances overall on those off hour runs would suggest it does not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
monmouthcounty11 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 And Monmouth? A little more, starts as light rain quickly changes about .5 falls as snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Off topic but why doesn't the nws have all of greater NYC metro in the same CWA? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saturn510 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 This is really going to turn out a big wad of nothing if your .4 or .5 comes as two seperate waves Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Ratios. Very cold on the northern edge Great Ratios with limited qpf equals not much snow, temps are forecast to be closer to 30 for first wave so great ratios won't be a factor, plus it's more than surface temp and 850s.. They must be thinking all models are wrong and we get 3x the qpf the models are predicting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dino Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 If that latest map from Upton is actually accurate, I'd be more than happy. I remember just the other day H. Margusity from Accuwx was complaining about all the snow and the fact that the jack pot snows would be right over their HQ. lol. Worst bust for them- from 18"+ to nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DiehardFF Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 GFS looks a little bit better with the front wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Ratios with no qpf equals no snow, temps are forecast to be marginal for first wave so ratios won't be great.. They must be thinking all models are wrong and we hey 3x the qpf the models are predicting Reading the 4pm AFD, they aren't sold on the track yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Looks like just maybe, more favorable interaction with the PV on the 18z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Looks like just maybe, more favorable interaction with the PV on the 18z GFS. May be a start like the other days 18z that started the south trend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DiehardFF Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Well the 18z GFS does not get it done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted March 1, 2014 Author Share Posted March 1, 2014 Looks like just maybe, more favorable interaction with the PV on the 18z GFS. Being its the 18z GFS im not sure im buying any good or bad trends from the rock bottom model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Damn, I thought this run was a lot closer to pulling a miracle out of a hat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
monmouthcounty11 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 18z GFS is south of 12z, less precip for entire area. KNYC may be about .2-.3 on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 It looks too dry with the first wave, I thought "grasping for straws here" that it looked a tick better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SNfreak21 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 QPF from first wave Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Sticking to my call of 2-4", mainly on Sunday night, and hoping for more. 3-6" south of NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 .35 into NYC .50 to .60 into Monmouth county. North to south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DiehardFF Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 .3" - NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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